Looking at a EUR/USD short - not here though, 1.443-1.445 is your entry

watching a bearish gartley developing, and with the number of traders out there looking to sell EURO rallies, I have no doubt it will be a great trade. Needs to get comfortably above 1.44 for me to try this one though. If anyone recalls, I had a euro/usd short on for 3 months, that I covered below 1.40 last week, noting in the same post that I saw a EUR/USD rally to potentially above 1.50/1.51 on the horizon. I simply would not "buy" the euro to trade that view, rather, look for short term trades from the other side, such as the one presenting itself very soon. Trade should be good for a move back below 1.42, to approx 1.418. Not entering just yet, this move probably has a little left to the upside today/tomorrow. If it does not, and we've topped short term, then I'll pass, because CD at today's high of 1.44, is only .86 of AB, as opposed to the .95-1.05 range I like to see for a gartley. FWIW, the move in equities today? totally currency based and absurd if you ask me. I knew the euro was going to rally, plain and simple. Even short term, there was a strong AB leg up from 1.38 and change to almost 1.43, then we bottomed at 1.40 approx a few days ago. So next move, CD, should have gone to 1.445-1.45. And thats what we've seen so far. I simply refuse to buy stocks ahead of a currency rally, because you don't know what news can break that correlation suddenly. So unfortunately I have not benefited from my own predictions coming true, but I'm fine with that. What one has to wonder is if the euro/usd really goes back above 1.50, which as someone who trades the euro pretty steadily, I'm fairly certain will happen, is that really going to carry stocks up the entire way? If so, spx 1400 will be the floor below us by that time, if we're really going to rally 20 handles on the spx every time the euro moves 200 pips. Pretty sad that the what once as the spark of US capitalism, and the opportunity for every american to partake in wealth creation, is now nothing but a whipsaw machine for forex trading desks. And there was no stopping this euro rally, in fact, look at the weekly options traded on the SPY yesterday...one could even argue it was PLANNED. Nobody trades 150K CONTRACTS, thats right, not total call options, CONTRACTS (meaning total options involved were over 15 million) that expire in 2 days unless somethings a CERTAINTY. Again, not the kind of trade I'm going to follow, good for them. But its just a joke how planned and front run this market is nowadays. Ah well, at least I wasn't short

Edited by Jhoe, 21 July 2011 - 09:56 AM.

watching a bearish gartley developing, and with the number of traders out there looking to sell EURO rallies, I have no doubt it will be a great trade. Needs to get comfortably above 1.44 for me to try this one though.

I agree - I like 1.46 before I dip my toe in but I may miss it waiting. g/l

watching a bearish gartley developing, and with the number of traders out there looking to sell EURO rallies, I have no doubt it will be a great trade. Needs to get comfortably above 1.44 for me to try this one though.

I agree - I like 1.46 before I dip my toe in but I may miss it waiting. g/l

hey, this is counter-trend trading, in my opinion. you can never be too careful, or wait too long

just a follow up, entered short EUR/USD at 1.4429, few minutes ago. target is 1.42, or just below to be precise...1.418 or so. I'm ready to take some pain before getting stopped out, placing my stop above 1.45 for now, 1.4530 to be precise. Given the tight correlation right now, will trade equities long against this, but not unless this trade moves in my favor first. This ones not for the faint of heart, and again, definitely is counter trend trading. The EUR/USD pair looks prime for a run all the way back to 1.50/1.51. Also worth noting, before opening this, I opened a call position in the FXE today, Sept 148 strike. So I should be hedged against a euro/usd rally if this short term down move doesn't play out. g/l to all

Jhoe, You could wait. I am expecting Eur/USD to breakout of the channel with a minimum target of 1.469. If the channel offers resistance for the next 4 days, then you may enter a short. The momentum is upward BTW. I'd be careful as channel breaks like recent AAPL hasn't gone well with shorts. I am watching this for commodity trading.



No positions, I don't trade FOREX but watch for market structures.

Jhoe, You could wait. I am expecting Eur/USD to breakout of the channel with a minimum target of 1.469. If the channel offers resistance for the next 4 days, then you may enter a short. The momentum is upward BTW. I'd be careful as channel breaks like recent AAPL hasn't gone well with shorts. I am watching this for commodity trading.



No positions, I don't trade FOREX but watch for market structures.

right on, thanks for the chart. I'm actually in perfect agreement, and believe EUR/USD could get to 1.51/1.52 in the coming month(s). However, this is a VERY short term trade, as in I could be out of it by tomorrow. Also its lining up as a perfect AB=CD retrace, and happens to coincide with a nice diagonal resistance line (and a fib fan from my charts), that will be natural resistance on their own. Its good risk/reward to give it a shot, IMO. Besides, if the EUR/USD truly explodes higher, as we both agree it could, sept 148 calls on the FXE, total position worth about 15% of my currency trade position, should at least generate enough profits to get me to my stop. I rarely do anything in this market without an options hedge of some sort. JMHO

thanks again, appreciate the input

Edited by Jhoe, 21 July 2011 - 04:34 PM.