OR a new paper thin market thats' hopes and dreams (and most recent 500 pt 4 day levitation) are based on nothing more than currency market short squeezes, and the continued rise of a currency shared by nations with a combined debt to gdp ratio of like 14 trillion to 1? sorry, dont mean to be the party pooper

I mean we can play pin the tail on the rally all night long, but its pretty simple--no news or event had anything to do with today. The euro/usd was above 1.42 yesterday when the greek bailout was finalized/salvaged, it spiked to 1.427 after the news around 6-7pm wednesday. Early AM today, approx 6 am, it had given back all of those gains, and doubled them to the downside, trading below 1.415. Equity futures were actually DOWN at that point, yes hard to believe "equity" and "down"can be used in one sentence, huh? Then spx futures literally, no embelishing, moved from below 1316 to 1346 from 6 am to 10am or so. 3%+ in mostly electronic trading, on no news other than HIGHER than expected initial claims, and a philly Fed number that albeit weak, beat the low expectations of ZERO, but nonetheless didnt even come out until spx futures had already ramped 30 points in 4 hours.
Bull market? Were those mutual funds ramping the euro and buying stocks at 6 am? We see what the global financial think tank thinks of the world economy right now, investment banks and the fed included: slashing GDP forecasts, bumping down output expectations, hedge funds ramping up CDS in anything and everything from italy to US banks. So either they're buying by day and painting portraits of grizzly bears by night for our viewing pleasure and misdirection only. OR, and this is more of a conclusion than a true "OR", we've got nothing but day trading desks driving hundreds of trillions in worldwide market cap whereever the euro leads them from dusk to dawn. And typically taking advantage of where the most people are piled in and driving momentum the opposite direction. See: the ramp in oil this spring, the late June stock rally, the Japanese stock market where shorts had no doubt camped tents and started installing in ground pools late spring but is now somehow above pre-quake levels despite clearly entering contraction for who knows how long, the vicious commodity selloff in april....see the pattern? DAy traders finding the crowds (commodities in april, short sellers in japan, the highest NYSE short interest in 14 months back in mid june) and blasting the market the opposite direction (usually with the help of some govt-related entity, ie the CME). Bull market? bull markets dont give up 200 dow points in 30 seconds because non farm payrolls came in at 18,000. In reality, employment and equities have no real correlation, as companies are as efficient as they are today BECAUSE of cutting headcounts...and partially due to puckering up to Wall St.s too-too. And efficiency = earnings power. My point is this is not a market indicative of anything other than momentum, liquidity, and frontrunning the next days news.
Hey, dont get me wrong, I'm a trader too. I get in and get out as fast as possible sometimes for retail guys like us. But lets call a spade a spade. I wont knock on your door and pretend to be a plumber, and you in return( (not YOU personally dear reader) shouldnt call this a bull market. This is a govt's attempt to get a mulligan on a recession they essentially caused, a recession born of the same greed, credit over indulgence, and bottom line DEBT/INSOLVENCY that exists today. The only difference is the way goldman sachs and jp morgan are day trading.
Edited by Jhoe, 21 July 2011 - 07:48 PM.