Posted 22 July 2011 - 07:09 PM
Well that was interesting. Must be some more job cuts on the way...
How can we be in recession now when the GDP still shows growth? Because of improper inflation adjustments. “Real” GDP growth, the headline number, is nominal growth minus the rate of inflation. However, inflation is far understated for political reasons.
Currently, the GDP deflator is 1.8%, which hardly reflects the true rise in prices. Therefore, what is counted as “growth,” is actually price increases. Actual inflation, according to free market economists who calculate inflation as it was done in 1980 before the politician re-engineered it, is now more than 11%. Using that to adjust GDP for inflation, would show that the economy is now in a very sharp contraction.
When the current euphoric earnings forecasts of Wall Street finally reflect that via significant “earnings downgrades,” the stock market will see a serious “adjustment” as well.
On July 18, Goldman Sachs (GS) substantially lowered its economic growth forecast. Marketwatch.com had this headline: Goldman Sachs slashes Economic Forecasts. The next step will be for them to substantially reduce earnings forecasts for the S&P 500.
Will the phase II be as bad as the 2008 crisis? The last crisis was confined to the private sector, i.e. financial institutions. The next one will be involve the threatened default of entire countries. The last time, the central banks bailed out the financial firms and even Warren Buffett bailed out several firms. Who is big enough to bail out entire countries? Or will the term of “too big to fail” turn to “too big to bail?
