So simple, even a caveman can figure it out...

Equities have diverged so far from any semblence of reality, that if you just look at the 5 year interest rate swaps and see how bad it is now compared to prior market plunges, you have to ask yourself "why cavemen understand the markets are overvalued, but the market participants themselves, can't see it coming ?" Earnings have been so manipulated, that the proof is in the fact that, one single company, a company that makes something not a one of us need, has more cash than 38% of the the 500 companies in the S&P COMBINED ! Think about that for a second. There are people out there BUYING WHAT THEY WANT, but can't afford what they truly need, and don't even know the difference. This is the same set of people investing in today's market. No its not the hedge fund managers or mutual fund managers I'm talking about. Its everyone on the planet who has their head so far up their you know what's that they cannot even discern with any level of critical reasoning, that this market is so over-valued, so ripe for a plunge, that by the time it happens, these people won't even know what to do while it screams back down past 6000 on the Dow. Everybody has used credit for so long, and its permeated their pysche so exponentially, that they have no freaking idea of the value of anything. Not a single thing. Even if everyone stopped using credit cards immediately, and went to cash, they wouldn't grasp the meaning of how worthless the dollars are that they currently hold, and how over borrowed and indebted each of the states and federal government truly is. Its beyond words, to even attempt to describe how remarkable this situation is. It likely won't be until it hits everyone in the face, Argentina style, when the preponderance of the US market for good and services, can't function due to the plunge of the dollar on a basis so lightning fast, that even acknowledging that things are "finally bad" won't be enough to help people grasp the reality that is NOW. I don't believe there is one soul on this board who is grasping the reality of this situation at present, particularly if one is day trading or even IT trade swinging. The only thing that truly amazes me about this market is that it has gone this far, and the exchanges are still operating, with so much hidden leverage and debt. (for example, did you know at the time when the Feds were "loaning" (printing out) $16 trillion when it was happening. ) This cannot be unwound. It can't ever be repaid. It will be defaulted upon, and it just implodes. The market couldn't see or price out 2 months in front of itself in 2007, and now with this much leverage it can't price out 2 minutes in front of itself. Its so manipulated, and complacent, that even a measure as simplistic as the VIX is corrupted beyond any usefulness. Folks, when this kicks in, you will witness Vix go to such heights, and levels that you will have wished that you put every red cent you owned into VXX. You'll be saying how could I not have seen this coming ??? Example: back in 1999, did any of you foresee when gold was at less than $300, the price being over $1600 not just a decade away, but ever ? I doubt a one of you saw that or could imagine it. That's only a 5 fold increase, and its doubtful even now you can envision gold at $12,000. Try imagining the ETF, VXX at $100. Do you think that can happen or will happen ? In a year, 3 years, or maybe 3 months ? Everyone says the Fed cant or wont let the markets drop. Baloney. Its beyond their control. We saw that panic back in 08, and this next time, it will be far far worse.

I agree completely. When you remove a lot of this credit from the system, prices implode to levels that seem unfathomable. Iceland's stock market dropped like 95% from the peak. Greece right now as we speak is down 80% plus and back to levels seen in the early 90s, BEFORE INFLATION of the past 20 years. Japan is down 75% from peak. But of course, you're called a madman for saying that S&P 500 at 600 or so is reasonable a few years from now. The key is in real terms though...they might save some of the nominal drop, but the inflation adjusted drop could easily be 80-90% from the stock market peak in 2000.

Equities have diverged so far from any semblence of reality, that if you just look at the 5 year interest rate swaps and see how bad it is now compared to prior market plunges, you have to ask yourself "why cavemen understand the markets are overvalued, but the market participants themselves, can't see it coming ?"

I don't think you will get much disagreement. Then there is that "markets can remain irrational ..." axiom.

Equities have diverged so far from any semblence of reality, that if you just look at the 5 year interest rate swaps and see how bad it is now compared to prior market plunges, you have to ask yourself "why cavemen understand the markets are overvalued, but the market participants themselves, can't see it coming ?"

Earnings have been so manipulated, that the proof is in the fact that, one single company, a company that makes something not a one of us need, has more cash than 38% of the the 500 companies in the S&P COMBINED !

Think about that for a second. There are people out there BUYING WHAT THEY WANT, but can't afford what they truly need, and don't even know the difference. This is the same set of people investing in today's market. No its not the hedge fund managers or mutual fund managers I'm talking about. Its everyone on the planet who has their head so far up their you know what's that they cannot even discern with any level of critical reasoning, that this market is so over-valued, so ripe for a plunge, that by the time it happens, these people won't even know what to do while it screams back down past 6000 on the Dow.

Everybody has used credit for so long, and its permeated their pysche so exponentially, that they have no freaking idea of the value of anything. Not a single thing. Even if everyone stopped using credit cards immediately, and went to cash, they wouldn't grasp the meaning of how worthless the dollars are that they currently hold, and how over borrowed and indebted each of the states and federal government truly is.

Its beyond words, to even attempt to describe how remarkable this situation is. It likely won't be until it hits everyone in the face, Argentina style, when the preponderance of the US market for good and services, can't function due to the plunge of the dollar on a basis so lightning fast, that even acknowledging that things are "finally bad" won't be enough to help people grasp the reality that is NOW.

I don't believe there is one soul on this board who is grasping the reality of this situation at present, particularly if one is day trading or even IT trade swinging. The only thing that truly amazes me about this market is that it has gone this far, and the exchanges are still operating, with so much hidden leverage and debt. (for example, did you know at the time when the Feds were "loaning" (printing out) $16 trillion when it was happening. ) This cannot be unwound. It can't ever be repaid. It will be defaulted upon, and it just implodes. The market couldn't see or price out 2 months in front of itself in 2007, and now with this much leverage it can't price out 2 minutes in front of itself. Its so manipulated, and complacent, that even a measure as simplistic as the VIX is corrupted beyond any usefulness.

Folks, when this kicks in, you will witness Vix go to such heights, and levels that you will have wished that you put every red cent you owned into VXX. You'll be saying how could I not have seen this coming ???

Example: back in 1999, did any of you foresee when gold was at less than $300, the price being over $1600 not just a decade away, but ever ? I doubt a one of you saw that or could imagine it. That's only a 5 fold increase, and its doubtful even now you can envision gold at $12,000.

Try imagining the ETF, VXX at $100. Do you think that can happen or will happen ? In a year, 3 years, or maybe 3 months ?
Everyone says the Fed cant or wont let the markets drop. Baloney. Its beyond their control. We saw that panic back in 08, and this next time, it will be far far worse.

NimbleB

Its not we can't see what's coming.

I am bearish for a couple of years ahead at least, but we play the short term as well.

So we need be as your good self and be a nimble bear.

Equities have diverged so far from any semblence of reality, that if you just look at the 5 year interest rate swaps and see how bad it is now compared to prior market plunges, you have to ask yourself "why cavemen understand the markets are overvalued, but the market participants themselves, can't see it coming ?"

Earnings have been so manipulated, that the proof is in the fact that, one single company, a company that makes something not a one of us need, has more cash than 38% of the the 500 companies in the S&P COMBINED !

Think about that for a second. There are people out there BUYING WHAT THEY WANT, but can't afford what they truly need, and don't even know the difference. This is the same set of people investing in today's market. No its not the hedge fund managers or mutual fund managers I'm talking about. Its everyone on the planet who has their head so far up their you know what's that they cannot even discern with any level of critical reasoning, that this market is so over-valued, so ripe for a plunge, that by the time it happens, these people won't even know what to do while it screams back down past 6000 on the Dow.

Everybody has used credit for so long, and its permeated their pysche so exponentially, that they have no freaking idea of the value of anything. Not a single thing. Even if everyone stopped using credit cards immediately, and went to cash, they wouldn't grasp the meaning of how worthless the dollars are that they currently hold, and how over borrowed and indebted each of the states and federal government truly is.

Its beyond words, to even attempt to describe how remarkable this situation is. It likely won't be until it hits everyone in the face, Argentina style, when the preponderance of the US market for good and services, can't function due to the plunge of the dollar on a basis so lightning fast, that even acknowledging that things are "finally bad" won't be enough to help people grasp the reality that is NOW.

I don't believe there is one soul on this board who is grasping the reality of this situation at present, particularly if one is day trading or even IT trade swinging. The only thing that truly amazes me about this market is that it has gone this far, and the exchanges are still operating, with so much hidden leverage and debt. (for example, did you know at the time when the Feds were "loaning" (printing out) $16 trillion when it was happening. ) This cannot be unwound. It can't ever be repaid. It will be defaulted upon, and it just implodes. The market couldn't see or price out 2 months in front of itself in 2007, and now with this much leverage it can't price out 2 minutes in front of itself. Its so manipulated, and complacent, that even a measure as simplistic as the VIX is corrupted beyond any usefulness.

Folks, when this kicks in, you will witness Vix go to such heights, and levels that you will have wished that you put every red cent you owned into VXX. You'll be saying how could I not have seen this coming ???

Example: back in 1999, did any of you foresee when gold was at less than $300, the price being over $1600 not just a decade away, but ever ? I doubt a one of you saw that or could imagine it. That's only a 5 fold increase, and its doubtful even now you can envision gold at $12,000.

Try imagining the ETF, VXX at $100. Do you think that can happen or will happen ? In a year, 3 years, or maybe 3 months ?
Everyone says the Fed cant or wont let the markets drop. Baloney. Its beyond their control. We saw that panic back in 08, and this next time, it will be far far worse.

NimbleB

Its not we can't see what's coming.

I am bearish for a couple of years ahead at least, but we play the short term as well.

So we need be as your good self and be a nimble bear.

It could really go either way.. in the meanwhile a test of 1300 is in order and depending on how it behaves, the outcome will be determined intermediate term

Here is a scam you can put your money on. Front Run Federal Funds 1. Buy a piece of property - say a 4 family run down building for $200,000 assessed at around $200,000. 2. Transfer it to an LLC for say 2 million (no money changed hands of course) - say a hedge fund owns the LLC - same person who bought the property owns the LLC 3. No capital gains are paid because no money changed hands 4. The government needs the property for a Transit project. Think someone tipped them off. 5. The government pays the price that the LLC said it paid for it. 6. Part of the project is bonded by the state and the LLC bought the bonds 7. The LLC gets the inflated price "just compensation" (some of which is kicked back to the politicians who authorize the payments) and the rest pocketed by the hedge fund. 8. The LLC gets all its money back that it invested, created money that didn't exist, and gets paid back on the bonds too at the expense of the taxpayer and gets the inflated price of the property. 9. No capital gains again - because the sale price was the same as recorded by the LLC - so no gain. Tell me - how did Aetna get over 5 million dollars for 1.5 acres of undeveloped land in Hartford, Ct. - this is the tip of the Iceberg. One property was sold by a city (oh might as well blow the Whistle - New Britain) in Connecticut for $200,000 and the city bought it back 18 months later for a federal grant project for 1.6 million and recorded the transaction in another town (Bloomfield) so that it would not appear in the newspaper. There are over 40 properties that we have found where the purchase price for the LLC is millions above assessed values chasing 500+ million for a federal transit project. THIS IS ECONOMIC TERRORISM AND INVOLVES PEOPLE OUT OF MONSEY NY AND BROOKLYN NY Its got to stop Mary Anne Its over folks until this stuff is stopped. Mary Anne