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#1 Chilidawgz

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Posted 26 July 2011 - 10:51 AM

The World of Finance on the "deficit crisis"

The long and short of it, what you hear is not the complete truth. There are many shades of gray which we don’t see or know. But the people with serious money have already thought about it. If they have not panicked yet, why would you? I am not saying that you do not have serious money, but I am sure your investment adviser has already told you what I am telling here.
As I keep telling people, this is not an investor’s market. We have to be nimble to get out at a short notice. Things can turn ugly very quickly. But bear markets are not televised in real-time. Therefore I am still long and will remain long for a while more.

Edited by Chilidawgz, 26 July 2011 - 10:52 AM.

Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
 
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#2 Dex

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Posted 26 July 2011 - 11:04 AM

The World of Finance on the "deficit crisis"

The long and short of it, what you hear is not the complete truth. There are many shades of gray which we don’t see or know. But the people with serious money have already thought about it. If they have not panicked yet, why would you? I am not saying that you do not have serious money, but I am sure your investment adviser has already told you what I am telling here.
As I keep telling people, this is not an investor’s market. We have to be nimble to get out at a short notice. Things can turn ugly very quickly. But bear markets are not televised in real-time. Therefore I am still long and will remain long for a while more.


I don't know what panicked or serious $ means but large hedge funds have large positions in cash.

I think from a fundamental view many people are confused or unsure - Europe debt, USA debt, end of QE2.
"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
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#3 thespookyone

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Posted 26 July 2011 - 11:14 AM

"However, one thing I am sure, USA cannot afford higher interest rate on its bonds. So the moment 10 year rate crossing 4%, we can be sure of a market crash. " He needed only to stop right there. If we get downgraded as a country, interest rates will rise=and there will be absolutely NO confusion about what ensues.

#4 vitaminm

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Posted 26 July 2011 - 11:21 AM

oversold dollar may bounce any time...................

http://finance.yahoo.....p;c=TLT,^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.....p;c=VXX,^GSPC
vitaminm

#5 salsabob

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Posted 26 July 2011 - 11:44 AM

12:00 pm : Treasuries have rallied to their best levels of the session ahead of this afternoon's $35 bln 2-yr note auction. Buying picked up following the disappointing S&P/Case Shiller reading and continued after consumer confidence and new home sales posted mixed results. The tone of trade has been somewhat positive considering the U.S. is just one week away from defaulting if the debt ceiling is not raised. Longer dated paper is seeing the heaviest interest as a gain of 0.7% in the 30-yr has its yield down 6 bps at 4.261%. The 10-yr has slipped back below 3.00% and now finds itself on its session low near 2.95%. Some serious flattening has taken place along the yield curve with the 2-10-yr spread tightening to 256.6 from its previous 261.5.


What does a flattening yield curve tell you? Watch what happens to it should we do the voluntary default funky chicken dance.

One might take a look at the credit rating agencies' 'smart' downgrades of Japan and how that had such an enormous impact (not!) on that nation's currency and interest rates. One might also take a look at how 'smart' these guys were on their sub-prime mortgage calls before the 2008 meltdown.

I wonder if Big Ben even notices these pissants.

Just to put things in a perspective that isn't often voiced - did you know that the net worth of the US government is estimated to be between $400-450 trillion? $14 trillion is in the rounding error.

Edited by salsabob, 26 July 2011 - 11:49 AM.

John Galt shrugged, outsourced to Red China and opened a hedge fund for unregulated securitized credit derivatives.

If the world didn't suck, wouldn't we all just fly off?

#6 Dex

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Posted 26 July 2011 - 12:11 PM

Just to put things in a perspective that isn't often voiced - did you know that the net worth of the US government is estimated to be between $400-450 trillion? $14 trillion is in the rounding error.


What comprises the $400-450 trillion?
"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
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#7 thespookyone

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Posted 26 July 2011 - 01:54 PM

Well, salsabob-the "beauty" here is-we won't have to speculate-as the Teaparty in the house is going to provide full opportunity to find out what does happen. As yourself, they don't believe it will matter. What an interesting genie is going to be let out of the bottle here. Unfortunately-they don't go back in.

#8 beta

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Posted 26 July 2011 - 07:51 PM

Well, salsabob-the "beauty" here is-we won't have to speculate-as the Teaparty in the house is going to provide full opportunity to find out what does happen. As yourself, they don't believe it will matter. What an interesting genie is going to be let out of the bottle here. Unfortunately-they don't go back in.


Yes, yours is the Voice of Reason here, spooky. Way too much complacency out there, i.e., "this time won't be different." "This is America." "Daddy will take care of the problem."

Boiling Frog Syndrome. :nuke:

Edited by beta, 26 July 2011 - 07:51 PM.

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#9 beta

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Posted 26 July 2011 - 07:52 PM

... and I'm long TBT. Truckloads. :)
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#10 vitaminm

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Posted 27 July 2011 - 08:45 AM

DL........did bounce...........R@21.25


oversold dollar may bounce any time...................

http://finance.yahoo.....p;c=TLT,^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.....p;c=VXX,^GSPC


vitaminm