Beige Book says economy is slowing down...

Exchanges are worried about US Treasuries, so the debt is no good. Stocks are only 4.5% off from yearly highs?!? Prepare for a swift dive toward 1280, then 1230... Bye Bye global finance...

Tick is so extremely negative that you would expect about 10 point bounce here, but it ain't coming because nobody is short. I think the market will slowly go sideways for a day and then make another dive, the inability to bounce so far already speaks for itself, this will probably end as a trend day into the close... Sub-1300?

Edited by arbman, 27 July 2011 - 01:14 PM.

Exchanges are worried about US Treasuries, so the debt is no good.

Stocks are only 4.5% off from yearly highs?!?

Prepare for a swift dive toward 1280, then 1230...

Bye Bye global finance...

Quite a volte face eh ?

Sorry for bombarding the board, but if this is not obvious to you, you may consider to quit trading, we will see an hundred point rise out of this

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=132552

Tick is so extremely negative that you would expect about 10 point bounce here, but it ain't coming because nobody is short. I think the market will slowly go sideways for a day and then make another dive, the inability to bounce so far already speaks for itself, this will probably end as a trend day into the close... Sub-1300?

Yeah, if our thinking is right here there should be another selloff from now (2:25EST) until the close...probably to about 1300. Then another selloff tomorrow morning....I think any sharp rally that comes whenever some debt agreement gets made is probably a sell too...but it could be tricky...maybe we get a big pop (20-25 points) before more waves lower.

It seems like the big trend moves down don't come historically until the monthly MACD turns negative and and starts trending lower at an increasing pace...but that doesn't mean we can't get a decent selloff here over the next few weeks back toward the March lows and perhaps below...then another attempt toward 1300, and then finally resume the secular bear market in the fall once the momentum really starts to run out.

We've already been working off momentum since February by going sideways...another push lower here will continue to slow down the longer term momentum...as we prepare for the big selling in 2012-13.

Sorry, I can't stop quoting myself since this was predicted more than a month ago:

Yeah, I suspect the next leg down will be triggered by the debt ceiling fight and more worldwide slowdown fears. So July mid/end maybe, enough time to even get to 1340 for a huge squeeze.

We got a squeeze that went to 1356 and now, July end, what looks like the next leg down with debt fight and recession talk.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=582171

Quite a volte face eh ?

Sorry for bombarding the board, but if this is not obvious to you, you may consider to quit trading, we will see an hundred point rise out of this

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=132552

The debt agreement looked possible, then it broke off...

IF that debt deal had passed, it would've been a pretty bullish event back to back after Europe and it would've pumped up the markets for a euphoric last top...

I reserve to change my mind, but I said it was a news driven market...

Macro, I think everyone is trying to exit ahead of US downgrade, it is a given now.

Good call Will... I never thought the politicians would've been so stubborn to destroy trillions to save trillions.

Edited by arbman, 27 July 2011 - 01:48 PM.

Just keep in mind this -

In November 1998, the day after the Japanese Government announced a large-scale fiscal stimulus to its ailing economy, Moody’s Investors Service began the first of a series of downgradings of the Japanese Government’s yen-denominated bonds, by taking the Aaa (triple A) rating away. The next major Moody’s downgrade occurred on September 8, 2000.

Then, in December 2001, Moody’s further downgraded the Japan Governments yen-denominated bond rating to Aa3 from Aa2. On May 31, 2002, Moody’s Investors Service cut Japan’s long-term credit rating by a further two grades to A2, or below that given to Botswana, Chile and Hungary.

In a statement at the time, Moody’s said that its decision “reflects the conclusion that the Japanese government’s current and anticipated economic policies will be insufficient to prevent continued deterioration in Japan’s domestic debt position … Japan’s general government indebtedness, however measured, will approach levels unprecedented in the postwar era in the developed world, and as such Japan will be entering ‘uncharted territory’.”

The then Japanese Finance Minister responded (with some foresight): “They’re doing it for business. Just because they do such things we won’t change our policies … The market doesn’t seem to be paying attention.”

and this -





This is in regard to currency value, Ts, and interest rates; again, I'm not saying anything about equities

BTW, NAV, when I posted my bullish thoughts, it was at 1340, the market gave several chances to exit after it clearly changed its attitude, even after the debt failures, it gave an exit. I also changed and updated my thoughts... Unfortunately, the debt thing really killed the end of month rally that was shaping up, it could go about 30-40 points higher to a new high and we would see the divergences better, it didn't happen... A change from a debt news based rally vs debt deal failure based downgrade were just too far apart for me to choose, I chose the upside, it seemed more sensible to me, naive me.

Edited by arbman, 27 July 2011 - 02:20 PM.

BTW, NAV, when I posted my bullish thoughts, it was at 1340, the market gave several chances to exit after it clearly changed its attitude, even after the debt failures, it gave an exit. I also changed and updated my thoughts...

Unfortunately, the debt thing really killed the end of month rally that was shaping up, it could go about 30-40 points higher to a new high and we would see the divergences better, it didn't happen...

A change from a debt news based rally vs debt deal failure based downgrade were just too far apart for me to choose, I chose the upside, it seemed more sensible to me, naive me.

Moral of the story: Never trust the politicians.

Moral of the story: "but if this is not obvious to you, you may consider to quit trading" ==> Nothing is obvious in trading. If it's too obvious it's usually the wrong idea.

Moral of the story: "but if this is not obvious to you, you may consider to quit trading" ==> Nothing is obvious in trading. If it's too obvious it's usually the wrong idea.

Yes, I sucked pretty bad with that comment...