gap down on GDP ?

maybe? weak GDP tomorrow... gap down.. market realizes that this is a no growth economy spinning its wheels in the mud... the debt issue is just a sideshow

Another thought, Everyone is expecting very bad... priced in? Maybe they fudge the numbers to gap it up? I'm one of the fools here been trading the moon madness... and bradley tomorrow ta'boot! Hard to fade that... I'm long looking to dump in the first hour tomorrow. Will short there for a very bloody August...

Edited by opinionated, 28 July 2011 - 12:13 PM.

I am thinking gap down and rally, but it could be a pretty big gap... I think we will get a 3rd gap down to finish this swing.

Another thought, Everyone is expecting very bad... priced in? Maybe they fudge the numbers to gap it up? I'm one of the fools here been trading the moon madness... and bradley tomorrow ta'boot! Hard to fade that... I'm long looking to dump in the first hour tomorrow.



Will short there for a very bloody August...

You could be right. This is end of the month. hen, Monday is 1st August, which is another chance to mark up.

DrSP, yes but where is the money? QE is over, no new auctions are taking place, any new money will be used to cover the $90B monthly deficit, the govt can postpone to pay the bills until 10th, but that's about it. This is one of the most illiquid situation unless Geithner is speculating with govt money in US futures to pay the bills. If he is doing so, he should be selling short anyway...

Maybe they fudge the numbers to gap it up?

Surely you jest.

Yes, the conspiracy-minded out there think that every government statistic is "fudged" or "manipulated" or "fixed" or somehow or another warped to fit some preferred result.

The BLS and BEA and dozens of other government agencies which issue statistics are staffed by literally thousands of career, professional statisticians, many with advanced degrees and they all operate under long-established rules and crank this stuff out routinely.

If what you posit is true, why has there never been a single statistician who has blown the whistle on all of this manifold skulduggery, allegedly going on with every statistical release where the evil "they" perform some sort of magic?

How is it that thousands of people with their careers and retirement at stake, not to mention many years in federal prison seem to routinely acquiesce to this sort of thing with never a peep out of them?

I've been waiting to hear an explanation of this "fudge" theory for a long time.

Does Ben call the BLS or the BEA and say "We'd like it to be a tenth" this way or that way? How exactly does the conspiracy by which the number is "fudged" work?

Please enlighten me.

I won't hold my breath. And I certainly hope you aren't trading based on any such hogwash.

You are wonderful person. By the way, do you own any bridges in your portfolio? If not, IM me and I know some nice ones with tolls. that are freshly painted. I kid you not, AZ and Ill both will sell and you might like them. Best, Islander

... I find it hard to believe that anyone who looks at the reported numbers would not conclude that they are minipulated in MANY ways. First of all in all but one month for the last two years the monthly employment numbers have been revised UP. That is statistically not possible unless the model is flawed, in which case they should correct it. Even the weekly numbers are revised at a statistically impossible rate. Take a look at today, non seasonally adujusted claims dropped by 100,000! Come on I guarantee that gets revised next week to a higher unemployment number. Last January they corrected nearly a million jobs raising the unemployment figure for the year in one fell swoop as revised! True U-6 unemployment is around 14 percent. And these are just the employment figures. Yes I believe they manipulate them and show me statistically how they don't with all their revisions. And that is just the employment figures do not get me started on Inflation ! We are not as bad as China with the manipulation though 8)

I'm from the government and I am here to help you...

thousands of career, professional statisticians, many with advanced degrees

and yet nearly every week they REVISE the prior week's figures, which are almost always WORSE THAN FIRST REPORTED.

HERE'S WHAT THEY SAID JUST TODAY:

Initial jobless claims dropped a very sharp 24,000 in the July 23 week to 398,000 for the first sub-400,000 reading since early April (in a partial offset
the prior week was revised 4,000 higher to 422,000)

July 21st?

(prior week revised 3,000 higher to 408,000)

July 14th?

(prior week revised upward to 427,000)

July 7th?

an upward revision of 4,000 in the prior week to 432,000

June 23?

But revision is another negative in today's with the prior week revised 6,000 higher to 420,000.

June 16th?

(prior week revised 3,000 higher to 430,000).

Shall I continue?
You can do it yourself if you really want to know reality.
Here's the link: http://www.nasdaq.co...c-calendar.aspx

IT'S HOGWASH FOR SURE.

Maybe they fudge the numbers to gap it up?

Surely you jest.

Yes, the conspiracy-minded out there think that every government statistic is "fudged" or "manipulated" or "fixed" or somehow or another warped to fit some preferred result.

The BLS and BEA and dozens of other government agencies which issue statistics are staffed by literally thousands of career, professional statisticians, many with advanced degrees and they all operate under long-established rules and crank this stuff out routinely.

If what you posit is true, why has there never been a single statistician who has blown the whistle on all of this manifold skulduggery, allegedly going on with every statistical release where the evil "they" perform some sort of magic?

How is it that thousands of people with their careers and retirement at stake, not to mention many years in federal prison seem to routinely acquiesce to this sort of thing with never a peep out of them?

I've been waiting to hear an explanation of this "fudge" theory for a long time.

Does Ben call the BLS or the BEA and say "We'd like it to be a tenth" this way or that way? How exactly does the conspiracy by which the number is "fudged" work?

Please enlighten me.

I won't hold my breath. And I certainly hope you aren't trading based on any such hogwash.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 28 July 2011 - 10:26 PM.