its time for a new thread!

setting up for a bounce
dharma
trading will not be easy and surprises will be more common. the fed, imf, and ecb will be forced to act. the longer the delay, the more the loss of confidence and the larger the dose(monetization) necessary .
dharma

No problem for me, if so it goes. The "core" is untouchable.
For reloading my small trading position, however, I need time and price conflunce.
I wish and hope you are right but I should be prepared in case the PM's might give us a pre-Christmas present/drop.

Nice weekend to all the Gold posters
tria

Tria,
the NYSE BULLISH PERCENT did get a confirmation yesterday as we now have reverse to O which means more selling than buying taking over and the short term trend at least is down for the equities. Again, this is about supply/demand..nothing to do with moving averages or volume. As Dorsey describes it as a football game..defense is on the field now. Personally, like I mentioned before I do think gold/silver will have still some pressure for another couple of weeks or so...and like you ..nothing comes between me and my core holding!...but when you get these sells triggered..I only wait for the buy setups..never shorting it.

I still think the low is in but it could get tested if the market has a big sell off...if not, then perhaps between 1600-1700 area..that's why i'll cost average as i see the consolidation go on. And to be clear, the NYSE BULLISH PERCENT has nothing to do with gold...because it's possible for gold to rally and this still be on defense. So far, unless gold hits 1760 it will stay on a sell..but if i get one of those alerts for a reversal whether it is a counter trend or going for a buy, I'll let the thread know...those "last sale alerts up or down"..seem to work within a couple of days..sometimes the next day. That's when I"ll start cost averaging unless it hits 1760 first. And the buy signal can change if we do some up and down action too. Oil had one of those alerts Thursday...Last sale alert down..and it just reversed to O but still on a buy signal till it hits $89.

Silver had a sell signal Thursday and it's price target is 27.50..which may or may not get there..but that is the buy you want imo..and around Dec 9th should be a low coming in for silver ...but i'll be accumulating silver under 30 as I see fit..or depending how oversold it gets even around 30..I do feel the low is in for silver too..and the next low is a great opportunity for silver...and gold..
TM

its good to hear that you both have untouchable core positions. breaking of 1773 to the downside, for me indicated that higher prices were on hold for now. right here its a toss up break below 1690 and correction mode is upon us for certain. no telling how low we go, but listening to the market always provides guidance. i try and keep it simple and get out of the way. my bent is bullish, after all, it is a bull market. seems to me until the fed prints and the ecb gets serious about printing , we will languish. yes the ecb is buying bonds. , it will prove to be not enough i have cash and will wait to redeploy. i dont feel pressed to do anything, so i will wait and see what happens here. 1690 is not that far away. the pivot is above 1785 and then we resume upward. the key is to have insurance, the history of fiats is not encouraging place to have ones $$$.
dharma
i have studied astrology for 20 years, its a worthwhile endeavor, imo. certainly keeping track of the bradley truns is worthwhile, nothing is 100% but it has a high degree of accuracy

Edited by dharma, 19 November 2011 - 11:17 AM.

It is not what might happen during this seasonally favorable week to the stk market that worries me about but the week after, the week of 11/28. The SPX broke down from a triangle formation last Thursday and it could fall to 1160+/-10 by months end and who knows where to by mid Jan 2012. In case the "sell everything" mentality prevails POG could fall anywhere between 1650 and 1525. I am prepared and will act if such an opportunity arises to replenish my trading position. If this will not be the case, I will reconsider or climb "dharma's parabola", with my core position only. Pls note that the POG did not test, during regular CME trading hours, the 10/26 overnight electronic fiasco of POG falling to 1540. It is usually tested sooner or later. The weekly GLD:TLT, macd, rsi, chart still looks bearish to me. Finally, kindly have a look at the weekly LQD:TLT, macd, rsi, observe the beatiful symmetry from June 08 to today and tell me do you see what I see? I can only conclude that the Euro-printers are only working to rule, the USA-printers might be reluctant to do overtime near an ellection year, (it might be considered politically incorrect) and the Chinese printers are playing tough. POG will do its own thing of course but one should be on a red alert for the next 2 months. This is only my own BS (as senor used to say) 1 drachma humble opinion. tradermama, I read Merriman's free comments promptly, every Saturday morning. johngeorge, $BPGDM had a negative MACD crossing as of last Friday. dharma, Your fundamental analysis is solid and I was on stage during the mid 1979 early 1980 parabola. "There is no fever like Gold fever", we all know that. Whether I am invested 80% or 100% is not very important to me. By the way, I was very lucky having closed my MF Global-London, UK account last July due to various back room office operational problems. senor, I miss your input and your wave counting ability, visit us more often but with your gloves off. I respect your opinion but reserve my right to disagree. Any opinion when to short the USA T-bonds? to all the Gold posters, I read that this year's turkey dinner will cost you 13% more than last year's. Maybe the Bureau of Labor Statistics should rather cook a turkey than the CPI figures. Oh, I forgot, it is exluding food and energy, so maybe one should stay at home, no driving, no eating, no heating. PS We have reached an impasse here regarding the signing of the new Greek bailout package/loan agreement and thus the payment of the sixth tranche of the first bailout package is delayed/frozen. Without this payment of EUR8B by 10-15 December the word Default might be heard........the horse trading or shall I say "all in" pocker game continues. The Troica (EC,ECB,IMF) want the signatures of all three, the new PM's, the ex-PM's and the opposion leader's on the loan agreement. The opposition leader stubbornly refuses to put his signature saying his word is his bond. All three were ex-schoolmates of mine. May we live in intersting times.

Here's info on gold demand...


http://www.goldstock...ing-up-sixfold/

Dharma, as i said before I think most people here on your forum have an "untouchable" core position...trading it is just for taking advantage of the buy and sell signals..but I believe the correction/consolidation phase (meaning we finally get over $1800 and stay over it) will find it's low..some time in December...and another buy signal comes in.....and if for some reason gold does break its low, again, another great opportunity to buy..it's a win/win either way imo.....as the article says and I agree under $2,000 an ounce will be cheap....to me it's all about losing confidence in the currencies...it's been very obvious especially this year..

I like the gold forum on TT the best because most times there is civility unlike the main board...I leave my ego at the door all the time...I appreciate information that is shared and can take it or leave it...it is always up to me to do my own due diligence as it should be for all..especially any newbies...

You and others have a Happy Thanksgiving..there is always something to be thankful for even if one thinks things aren't working out as we had hoped in our lives...there is always someone in a worse situation ..that said, if you have your health that's the number one thing to be grateful for..

Peace

TM

P.S...watch silver also in December..for a nice buying opportunity imo

It is not what might happen during this seasonally favorable week to the stk market that worries me about but the week after, the week of 11/28.
The SPX broke down from a triangle formation last Thursday and it could fall to 1160+/-10 by months end and who knows where to by mid Jan 2012.
In case the "sell everything" mentality prevails POG could fall anywhere between 1650 and 1525.
I am prepared and will act if such an opportunity arises to replenish my trading position. If this will not be the case, I will reconsider or climb "dharma's parabola", with my core position only.
Pls note that the POG did not test, during regular CME trading hours, the 10/26 overnight electronic fiasco of POG falling to 1540. It is usually tested sooner or later.
The weekly GLD:TLT, macd, rsi, chart still looks bearish to me.
Finally, kindly have a look at the weekly LQD:TLT, macd, rsi, observe the beatiful symmetry from June 08 to today and tell me do you see what I see? I can only conclude that the Euro-printers are only working to rule, the USA-printers might be reluctant to do overtime near an ellection year, (it might be considered politically incorrect) and the Chinese printers are playing tough.
POG will do its own thing of course but one should be on a red alert for the next 2 months.
This is only my own BS (as senor used to say) 1 drachma humble opinion.

tradermama,
I read Merriman's free comments promptly, every Saturday morning.

johngeorge,
$BPGDM had a negative MACD crossing as of last Friday.

dharma,
Your fundamental analysis is solid and I was on stage during the mid 1979 early 1980 parabola.
"There is no fever like Gold fever", we all know that. Whether I am invested 80% or 100% is not very important to me. By the way, I was very lucky having closed my MF Global-London, UK account last July due to various back room office operational problems.

senor,
I miss your input and your wave counting ability, visit us more often but with your gloves off.
I respect your opinion but reserve my right to disagree.
Any opinion when to short the USA T-bonds?


to all the Gold posters,
I read that this year's turkey dinner will cost you 13% more than last year's.
Maybe the Bureau of Labor Statistics should rather cook a turkey than the CPI figures.
Oh, I forgot, it is exluding food and energy, so maybe one should stay at home, no driving, no eating, no heating.

PS
We have reached an impasse here regarding the signing of the new Greek bailout package/loan agreement and thus the payment of the sixth tranche of the first bailout package is delayed/frozen. Without this payment of EUR8B by 10-15 December the word Default might be heard........the horse trading or shall I say "all in" pocker game continues.
The Troica (EC,ECB,IMF) want the signatures of all three, the new PM's, the ex-PM's and the opposion leader's on the loan agreement. The opposition leader stubbornly refuses to put his signature saying his word is his bond. All three were ex-schoolmates of mine.
May we live in intersting times.

Tria,
I agree about the sell everything if the markets sell down..I think gold has been leading the market lately because I noticed that when gold started to go down some and couldn't get over 1790...and the market looked like it was going to hit 1270..that was a red flag for me..then the selling began in gold first ..so I would watch for gold to turn around first...one other thing that to me was very odd last week..was the semis..before we sold off..they were coming strong..actually leading the market too...they had a pnf buy/sars daily buy..and then it completely reversed the next day..now that's where astrology comes into play...the possible surprises or exaggerations ...that had me cautious too

Merriman will have webcast in December ..I listen to all of those...Also been buying his forecast book since 2000..Astrology is not a forecast per se, to me it's like a weather condition..knowing if you should have your umbrella ready ..or stay inside because of a storm..or come out and enjoy a nice sunny day!...I agree with your analogy too...and glad you were lucky enough not to get hurt with the MF Global situation...

All input from everyone is appreciated by me too

TM
I have Nov 29/30 as a turn date and it also is a bradley date....with a new moon on the 25th plus/minus 1 day effect..a rally might come on the 28th ..because these reversal dates also are plus/minus 3 days..so I'm thinking after the holidays some decent rally..but it may still be sell the rally..will just depends on what gets triggered..with the nyse bullish percent off that 1074..I have never seen it reverse to an X so quickly within days..it came off a low oversold but it was how it reversed so quickly..this could happen again but I dont think so..I think we might start seeing some tax selling coming in for December first..if that is the case, the small caps should sell off harder if history is our guide for the season

Edited by tradermama, 20 November 2011 - 07:47 AM.

tradermama's, new moon & turn date looks good to me, at least for a short term rally. Terry Laundry's free "T-Theory observations" has a low for the SPX on about this date (his 39-day sub-harmonic cycle bottoming). His SPX 75-days ringing cycle bottoms near Jan 11, 2012. He does speak however of a low in POG near mid Dec. Erik Hadik has a low for the Euro around mid Jan 2012 and a low for Silver by late Jan-early Feb 2012. He even speaks of Silver near $20! I have to see it, to believe it! All these are other people's opinions. To decide for myself whether Gold & Silver will follow the SPX down, or will diverge up, I mainly review the daily and weekly ratios of : $indu:$gold, $indu:$silver. Finally, I review the $gold:$silver ratio. All does not look very promising for the PM's as of now. Copper's backwardation has become a contango, and Silvers small backwardation is rapidly decreasing. It could mean China has a problem. I will be very careful with Silver near/medium term. I am speaking for trading positions ONLY! The core is untouchable till the parabola evolves.

tradermama's, new moon & turn date looks good to me, at least for a short term rally.
Terry Laundry's free "T-Theory observations" has a low for the SPX on about this date (his 39-day sub-harmonic cycle bottoming). His SPX 75-days ringing cycle bottoms near Jan 11, 2012.
He does speak however of a low in POG near mid Dec. Erik Hadik has a low for the Euro around mid Jan 2012 and a low for Silver by late Jan-early Feb 2012. He even speaks of Silver near $20!
I have to see it, to believe it! All these are other people's opinions.
To decide for myself whether Gold & Silver will follow the SPX down, or will diverge up, I mainly review the daily and weekly ratios of : $indu:$gold, $indu:$silver. Finally, I review the $gold:$silver ratio. All does not look very promising for the PM's as of now. Copper's backwardation has become a contango, and Silvers small backwardation is rapidly decreasing. It could mean China has a problem. I will be very careful with Silver near/medium term.
I am speaking for trading positions ONLY! The core is untouchable till the parabola evolves.

Yes..all opinions..Merriman is as of the opinion that the low in silver is in based on a 111 weekly cycle low..in his recent monthly report..it is his bias around the 9th of Dec for a recommendation to buy silver for a primary cycle low...I have no position at this time and just will use technicals as my guide but will see how things line up around there.....I haven't listen to Laundry today..to me he did pick the Oct low but he's using Parker's advice on this..and last year as he worked with Parker's advice for the cycle lows they were not always correct either..I dont hold much to his short term calls..and even though I will listen to his Saturday updates which now seem to be promoting his business more than being as clear as he use to be, I am always open to the fact even his T Theory can be wrong again as it was last year...mainly because I believe the involvement of the Fed which has made this bull market inorganic. Just gonna not get over bearish either not till we break 1000 and close below it. The Fed is in this market till he ain't!..LOL! I try and not get a mindset and just follow the technicals and will watch when the NYSE Bullish Percent reverses back to X to tell me that the offense is back in the market..the market is smarter than me.

Good luck and have a nice Thanksgiving.
TM

for me , the market
there is no question now, 1920s was another top. after 3 years w/o a major correction. i think this will be a larger deeper correction. it could be a V much llike 08 was. keep in mind 12 is an election year, which means they will spend lots of money to make things look good. did you notice @the gas pumps, the price of gasoline went down, in spite of the rise in price of oil to over 100.. i dont want to give downside targets, cause it could just be my imagination. but, expect a larger % corrrection. today we have worries over euro bond rates going up, and gold is down. the super committee came up w/squat so far-par for the course. have your bunker ready.
in the short term the hourlies have divergences, right now , i think they will hold
tomorrow is the bradley.. i have been studying vedic astrology since 1991. and financial astrology since sometime in the 2000s .like traderama, i have subscribed to merrimans annual forecast books for years. its well worth the 40 or whatever it is. it is cheap for what you get. and i always use manfred zimmels bradley dates.http://www.amanita.at/docs/open/newsletter-e.pdf i keep them on my calendar .
now, this week mercury goes retrograde and there is a new moon friday. i think we start the bounce tomorrow, hourly divergences and a bradley . dont know how long the bounce lasts. for me, i am focused on waiting for the bottom to once again load up. the bull goes through verious phases, and although today is counter intuitive, the institutions will be buying the larger miners. many majors have increased their dividends.
i will be in wait mode till the bottom, it is clear to me now to focus on the dailies as this has the makings of a larger correction. now, if alf is correct, he is calling for 3of 3 once this correction finishes. http://www.jsmineset...1-by-alf-field/
ever wonder who the big players are in the gold market?
the cbs were selling @250 -300range helping to carve out the bottom!
who was buying?
historically, those who have the gold make the rules!
not to get too high or too low. "the hardest part is the sitting"-jesse.
dharma

real estate. john templeton, was a market master. he said that he thought @some point he flet that real estate could go down 90%. i am prefacing what i am about to say w/- i have no idea as to exactly why he said that. but, in 29 stocks when down 89% to the low in 32. and here and now , the most leveraged investment is real estate. in the early 2k put 5% down and buy a house. it is very leveraged, to say the least. and as the situation deteriorates fewer will be able to carry debt. if you have debt, any kind of debt. get out of debt while you can. on another board, guys got stuck w/ mf global. their money is tied up. there are many ways this is going to happen. just my 2c . be prepared in these shark infested waters. celente played w/leverage and he too took a haircut

Dharma In EW is the 3 of 3 the final wave?

Dharma In EW is the 3 of 3 the final wave?

Dharma, I see that there are 5 waves. With 5 being the final stage. Hopefully this correction won't be too long and we'll get started on Wave 3 soon.

i just want to say, i posted alfs work, doesnt mean that i think that he is right! i dont know if he is or isnt. all i know is this ends in a parabolic blowoff. another measure is the price of the dow in gold . in 80 it topped @dow:gold =1:1 as another possible measure. no one knows @price or when this will end. we all make conjectures based on history. its the best we can do! do your own work. its probably as good a guess as anyone else's work dharma