Help - Search - Members - Calendar
Full Version: its time for a new thread!
Traders-Talk.com > TTHQ Directory > The Gold & Commodities Board
Pages: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
dharma
was this the bottom?! darn if i know for sure.
in bull markets surprises are on the upside.
page 22 got real bearish, drawdowns are part of the ride, if you cant ride, then your position is too big. if you lose sleep your position is too big. if you enter the fray, then buckle up the ride is going to give you whip lash. aem a major gold producer is going to zero, get into your bunker.
the short cycle , which has and is reliable throughout the bull is calling for a high in december. will it be a new high, i have no idea.
what i do know is there is a mountain of debt. the world is in a deflation. and the mo by the cbs is to try to paper it over. "inflate or die" we got the ecb -g20 meeting over the weekend. what are their choices? never listen to cbs do what they do. and right now, cbs are net buyers of gold. why is that if their currency is so sound. we are told that it was bold moves in 08 that saved the banking sector. whew! are banks more sound now, or has the frb system marked to market all its bad loans. hell no. its a game of confidence. as long as folks are confident in the system, it works. the public is and has been asleep @ the wheel, its the nature of the beast. but when you throw him out of his house, he cant find a job, sees his kids hungry he starts to wake up. we got a ways to go.
has gold bottomed or is this a bounce? if you trade its a relevant question. if you are an investor. its a moot question. i sleep @night knowing that no fiat system in history has ever lasted. maybe this will be the 1st. oh did you see that mountain of debt accrued by politicians making promises to their constituents to get them elected ! also in history sovereigns never pay! they either renege or debase.

one issue that i point to, is the bond market. bonds bottomed in 81 . the bond king got out and got short, he was early . calling turns is a real skill. few can do it consistently. kwave comes to mind. anyway, the bonds continue their topping process and one day the bond holders, will not be comfortable getting miniscule returns and the top will turn into a trend for higher rates. higher rates are bullish for the metals, its an admission by the powers that be that inflation is rising. houston there is a problem!. but @1st it will be bearish on the metals.its why i keep bringing up the bonds. something to keep an eye on. folks have been corralled into bonds seeking safety and returns on their dough. just in time , when the boat is loaded , to have the rug pulled.

when can the mighty g20 do? not much , but print or let the sick sovereigns crash and burn. its not a matter of doing the right thing, its a matter of keeping the system going. there are years left to this thing. i think 4 armstrong thinks more. i really have no idea, but its what i think. take care of yourself , in the end its all you have.
dharma
dharma
QE3 Just Secretly Happened and Few Have Taken Notice
http://goldnews.com/2011/10/20/qe3-just-se...e-taken-notice/
dharma
dougie
Thanks Dharma: I will be lightening up into this near term strength i think as i think a BIG swoon is coming to the broad markets soon
and I dont think the miners have shown much capacity to diverge
stubaby

Gold "In Persective" from Gary at:

Biiwii Blogspot

stubaby purebs.gif
dharma
[quote name='stubaby' date='Oct 21 2011, 03:07 PM' post='600354']
Gold "In Persective" from Gary at:

Biiwii Blogspot

stubaby purebs.gif
[/quote)
in this piece the guy uses all the catch words that were used by top analysts to miss the move. too high too fast. yes , the market should march to the beat that they have set for it. this to me smells of a guy who is destined to miss the market. in the final parabolic the market will gallop and not to his drum or mine. lets see 1. if we have bottomed and if so 2 how this leg unfolds.
watch out, be careful of guys who have a plan for the market. reminds me of prechter, who has not been right on anything for decades.
dharma
stubaby


Looks like accumulation time to me!



stubaby cool.gif
dougie
nice stu though more down is in store per your WM, no?
stubaby
QUOTE (dougie @ Oct 22 2011, 01:12 PM) *
nice stu though more down is in store per your WM, no?



dougie:

Yep - and it can "stay down" for awhile if it wants to - the buy signal comes on a move up through WM %R -80 and is confirmed with a WM %R reading above -50 - but this is a monthly chart and I will rely on the Weekly and Daily in this price area for signals.

Bottom line a MAJOR BUY POINT is at hand! ..and Buying here, and if it goes lower Buying more is how you accumulate positions for the move higher, which should last 3-4 years!

Gold could bottom early this week with one more move down (maybe just below 1,600 intraday) to finish it's a-b-c unless Wave 5 extends lower (whether it's a complete a-b-c for Wave 2 or just Wave A - doesn't matter here - it's up we go for Wave B or Wave 1 of 3)


However, it would increase the chance of Wave 2 if we at least "tag" the 23.6% FIB line at 1,516 IMHO:


Falling short of 1,516 here on this swing would keep my primary count above intact. I would prefer a move into this FIB zone here no matter how painful over the short-term!

This Trendline Chart has four(4) touches - 2 from below and 2 from above and rests now at just above 1,500 - a drop here into the pink range could satisfy the 23.6% FIB and reinforce the importance of this trendline:

A break below this trendline would be very Bearish IMHO and I will act accordingly.

COTS are bullish - sentiment is in the crapper - all we need now is "that sinking feeling" we all get near or at bottoms! biggrin.gif

stubaby laugh.gif
dougie
sinking feeling ? feel like my feet are in cement boots ...
thanks for the nice analysis
stubaby
QUOTE (dougie @ Oct 22 2011, 08:21 PM) *
sinking feeling ? feel like my feet are in cement boots ...
thanks for the nice analysis



This chart sort-of "puts it together" for me for the short term (flip-a-coin juggle.gif ). But below 1,520ish cry.gif :



stubaby
johngeorge
Gold to $11,000? James Turk seems to think so.
uburack
QUOTE (johngeorge @ Oct 24 2011, 12:44 AM) *



And a loaf of bread for $400 ?
dharma
i remember in 80 there were alot of calls for 1k , those folks had to wait more than 20years for that to occur. better to listen to the market than even the top analysts
if this was the bottom, it was not the clearest technical bottom that i have seen.
w/the sovereigns in debt, and needing to prop up their image, printing is really the only viable solution. that comes w/consequences, the question in my mind is when do the bond vigilantes wake up and say, "i am getting miniscule returns, the risk is too greak for these returns." that is the event in the corner of my eye. now you can say, volker raised rates through the roof and it didnt kill the gold bull. and i would say correct. its the initial rise in rates that catches the market off guard and throws it for a correction. and that is what i am concerned about. bulls climb a wall of worry. and right there is my concern. bill gross , like most top callers was early, i doubt that he has lost sleep leaving some on the table. once the process of rate rises starts , it lasts for a long time, and in the end it will fuel the gold bull. rising rates are an admission that inflation is higher than the rate of retun on bonds. and the fed will remain behind the curve for a long time. for now the sovereigns are taking the expedient route. they will irresponsibly print. the consequences on the masses will be financially devastating. do what you can to get out of debt. throughout history banksters have never been magnanimous. eventually, there will be 0 leverage in gold futures. i know i repeat myself. not senile yet!
new highs for the gold market remain a possibility.
i still think miners are undervalued.
dharma
dougie
china, FCX, USD, IYM all argue that we AMY have seen the bootm
dharma
keep in mind that all the factors that existed @1920gold are still present today.
nothing has changed, however the need to do something is more prevalent today. fed members are talking qe. europeans talking about pulling more money out of the hat for their sick members. the highs may be broached faster than any of even the most staunch bulls anticipate. in bulls surprises are on the upside. volatility makes this market more and more treacherous.
dharma
stubaby
QUOTE (dharma @ Oct 24 2011, 03:31 PM) *
keep in mind that all the factors that existed @1920gold are still present today.
nothing has changed, however the need to do something is more prevalent today. fed members are talking qe. europeans talking about pulling more money out of the hat for their sick members. the highs may be broached faster than any of even the most staunch bulls anticipate. in bulls surprises are on the upside. volatility makes this market more and more treacherous.
dharma



volatility makes this market more and more treacherous - to trade!

stubaby yes.gif
stocks
Big year-end rally

Commodities & PM's have exhausted the downside

DJP:SPY

Clif Droke:

October Has Killed Another Bear - 24 Oct 2011
Why the Recession Forecasters Are Wrong (For Now) - 21 Oct 2011

link
stocks
Felix Zulauf

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/felix...he-die-is-cast/
dharma
between a rock and a hard place, that is where the cbs are
i dont expect a surprise tomorrow, the euro will print, in one way or another.
and yes, stubaby, i expect trading to be an impossibility down the road, the volatility will be too great. but, we have some time before that takes place.
notice crude, it had taken out its previous low , bottomed and is +18 off that low.
the temptation is to diversify, get into oil, food stuffs, uranium etc. they will all do well . for me i cannot follow so many things and have expertise in each, not if i do my homework. so, i stay focused on the metals.
this is a sovereign debt crises. w/a looming derivative tower, which will ultimately topple the whole fiat tower. yes fiats will rally, which result in lower lows.
the die have been cast, the volatility is going to be insane. but not yet
dharma
dougie
so far this upmove in GDX might be all part of a flag.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p...amp;a=241707419

missed adding gold this am by a bit: the problem with TRADING
dharma
i dont see that, but what i do see is the last options expiration was 9/27 and it was a slaughter. tomorrow is options expiration, and it may have the same result. be careful. tomorrow could bring a correction. keep your powder dry, and lets see what tomorrow brings
dharma
dharma
by the way this is a breakout for gold
dharma
dharma
we are up almost 200 on gold, from the lows @1530 and it is very quiet around here. the europeans have yet to issue an announcement . i have no idea what will happen here, but @some point they will print. as will the usa. of course it is not the right course of action. the system needs to be cleaned out. we survived a depression before , we can survive one again. it is much more difficult to survive financially in hyperinflation.
today is also the new moon. i am doing nothing. but, mentally i am cautious in here. we busted above the overhead resistance yesterday. i am watching 1764 as a point to key off . above it we run.
i am sitting w/ a stable of explorers , who are behind the woodshed. yesterday rick rule gave this account. i love the headlines
rick rule
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN...a_to_Begin.html
the day is young , i expect some twists and turns.
in the past 20 gold moves meant something. we have had a 200 gold move and not even yawns around here.
dharma
johngeorge
QUOTE (dharma @ Oct 26 2011, 08:48 AM) *
we are up almost 200 on gold, from the lows @1530 and it is very quiet around here. the europeans have yet to issue an announcement . i have no idea what will happen here, but @some point they will print. as will the usa. of course it is not the right course of action. the system needs to be cleaned out. we survived a depression before , we can survive one again. it is much more difficult to survive financially in hyperinflation.
today is also the new moon. i am doing nothing. but, mentally i am cautious in here. we busted above the overhead resistance yesterday. i am watching 1764 as a point to key off . above it we run.
i am sitting w/ a stable of explorers , who are behind the woodshed. yesterday rick rule gave this account. i love the headlines
rick rule
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN...a_to_Begin.html
the day is young , i expect some twists and turns.
in the past 20 gold moves meant something. we have had a 200 gold move and not even yawns around here.
dharma


Watching ninja.gif

Yes, I read Rick Rule's interview yesterday and I heard what I wanted to hear. wink.gif

Thanks for the thread and commentary. I am sitting, no trading. Perhaps the move yesterday in gold was in anticipation of Blackhawk Ben's QE3?

Best to you.


dharma
found this encouraging
Insider Buying In Gold Miners Highest Since Lows Of 2008

INSIDER BUYING AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008: INK Research shows the TSX Venture, Metals and Minerals and Precious Metals Sentiment Indicator spiking recently to levels last seen at the bottom of the market in November 2008. The indicator takes insider buy only transactions and divides it by insider sell only transactions.

For the TSX Venture, over the past 30 days, there have been 7 times the number of insider buy transactions vs. sell transactions.

For Diversified Metals and Mining, over the past 30 days, there have been almost 6 times the number of insider buy transactions vs. sell transactions.

For Precious Metals, over the past 30 days, there have been more than 3 times the number of insider buy transactions vs. sell transactions.

The last time these indicators reached these levels was in November 2008, which coincided with the bottom of the TSX Venture Index. 3 months later, the TSX Venture Index was 25% higher. 6 months later, it was 49% higher. 9 months later, it was 60% higher. And one year later, the TSX Venture Index was 92% higher.

By November 2008. The TSX Venture Index had dropped 75% from peak to trough

In 2011, the TSX Venture Index dropped 47% from the peak in March to the trough in October.

The average daily volume traded for the TSX Venture remains low. Only 175 M shares last week, below the critical threshold of 200 M shares. But keep in mind, last time around, we didn't see volumes increase above 200 M shares until May 2009. Over that low volume period, the TSX Venture Index rose 49%. Despite low volumes, it could be time to start adding some risk into your portfolio.

dharma
dharma
i sold auy this am, i have held it since 4, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-26/a...iate-funds.html
i have been warning of this kind of stuff for years. make sure your miners are in capitalistic countries and in geopolitical safe areas. as poor countries become more cash starved nationalization becomes appealing. i think brazil will be ok. but i have enough headaches and i didnt want the exposure.

so , it seems this is their solution to the greek debt problem
http://news.yahoo.com/eu-official-banks-ag...-014636260.html
EU official: banks agree 50 pct cut on Greek debt
so, i am to understand that the banks take a 50%haircut and all is well?

i agree w/griffiths and i do think a good buying opportunity presents itself in 12 http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN..._in_2_Days.html

so,its a waiting game. as much as they want you to believe that all is aok. its not. keep your eye on the ball. its all about sovereign debt. and yes there is a derivative tower in the background. banks and bankers are not what they are cracked up to be. its all a mirage. thus the name fiat. when there is not intrinsic value to the currency, then the whole thing is a lie. however , it works quite well thank you. the system is srtetched to its max . fewer and fewer are signing on the dotted line . now how does this mountain of debt get financed? my guess is they print!!!!! yes there will be bad {bleeeep} corrections. if you are not leveraged then they come and go. 2008 was a slaughter. uncomfortable. it came and went. so will all the rest of the corrections and i do expect some large corrections. in 76 gold went from 204 to 102 , that is a major haircut!
dharma
dharma
the system is a shadow of itself, it is still functioning well, but it is essentially bankrupt. several cbs have established gold buy programs. do what they do, forget about what they say. this is all a process , it takes time. and it will not happen in anyones time frame, but it will happen. a great deal of patience is required. few have patience the tendency is to avoid pain and jump in and out. yes nickels and dimes can be picked up that way. riding is not easy. i am looking for a larger correction in 12, then the 400 in 11. gold revaluation will occur , but again in its own time.
i had held auy for a long time, i am not complaining , but selling it has left me w/a good bit of cash. and the market has moved up 20%+ i may be forced to wait for 12. not going to chase or do something stupid. we have years, is my guess for this thing to reach full expression. not one limit up day yet, in this whole bull market. when the jig is up, we will have many, the public will storm in and want the metals @all costs. the next phase will find institutional investors, coming into the mining sector. of course they will buy seniors and that will set the stage for the next phase. which is how much is gold in the ground worth. and thats when the explorers and juniors get their cue. you dont want to have too many juniors @this point. it is essentially dead money.
it seemed to me that yesterday, the broads are anticipating more printing. remember stocks are real assets. in weimar stocks went up until the printing became horrific, and some companies like damlier benz did well. eventually the last man standing will be gold. now if hugo salinas can get mexico to make silver currency, and other cbs follow suit, then you have a sound argument for silver. i do think silver is going higher, and maybe alot higher. but in the hands of mostly speculators, its demise will be violent. the move from 50 to 26 will be the norm.
end of oct to mid november is not part of the seasonally strong period. Diwali just occurred and the indians stocked up on gold. next is their wedding season. 1764 is my # , above that and we could get some mojo
dharma
stubaby
QUOTE (dharma @ Oct 28 2011, 11:45 AM) *
the system is a shadow of itself, it is still functioning well, but it is essentially bankrupt. several cbs have established gold buy programs. do what they do, forget about what they say. this is all a process , it takes time. and it will not happen in anyones time frame, but it will happen. a great deal of patience is required. few have patience the tendency is to avoid pain and jump in and out. yes nickels and dimes can be picked up that way. riding is not easy. i am looking for a larger correction in 12, then the 400 in 11. gold revaluation will occur , but again in its own time.
i had held auy for a long time, i am not complaining , but selling it has left me w/a good bit of cash. and the market has moved up 20%+ i may be forced to wait for 12. not going to chase or do something stupid. we have years, is my guess for this thing to reach full expression. not one limit up day yet, in this whole bull market. when the jig is up, we will have many, the public will storm in and want the metals @all costs. the next phase will find institutional investors, coming into the mining sector. of course they will buy seniors and that will set the stage for the next phase. which is how much is gold in the ground worth. and thats when the explorers and juniors get their cue. you dont want to have too many juniors @this point. it is essentially dead money.
it seemed to me that yesterday, the broads are anticipating more printing. remember stocks are real assets. in weimar stocks went up until the printing became horrific, and some companies like damlier benz did well. eventually the last man standing will be gold. now if hugo salinas can get mexico to make silver currency, and other cbs follow suit, then you have a sound argument for silver. i do think silver is going higher, and maybe alot higher. but in the hands of mostly speculators, its demise will be violent. the move from 50 to 26 will be the norm.
end of oct to mid november is not part of the seasonally strong period. Diwali just occurred and the indians stocked up on gold. next is their wedding season. 1764 is my # , above that and we could get some mojo
dharma



dharma:

...from nimblebear on the FF main board:

Think about the bondholders and those who are supposedly "volunteering" for "just" a 50% haircut. It won't be ending at 50%, it won't be ending at Greece, the holders of that debt aren't only who you think they are. When a guy like Faber says to prefer stocks over bonds for the next 10 years, its NOT b/c stocks are going to do "well." Everything is relative. Not one person on the planet is anticipating what can happen to bond and debt holders, bc until now they've been backed by fiat. Certain bond holders in 2008 got creamed, and that was a walk in the park compared to what's coming, and how widespread and deep it will be. Today was literally the turning point. There is no going back. The situation is unsalvageable, and its going to hit the US far harder than the EU.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=135436


stubaby




dharma
QUOTE (stubaby @ Oct 28 2011, 01:37 PM) *
QUOTE (dharma @ Oct 28 2011, 11:45 AM) *
the system is a shadow of itself, it is still functioning well, but it is essentially bankrupt. several cbs have established gold buy programs. do what they do, forget about what they say. this is all a process , it takes time. and it will not happen in anyones time frame, but it will happen. a great deal of patience is required. few have patience the tendency is to avoid pain and jump in and out. yes nickels and dimes can be picked up that way. riding is not easy. i am looking for a larger correction in 12, then the 400 in 11. gold revaluation will occur , but again in its own time.
i had held auy for a long time, i am not complaining , but selling it has left me w/a good bit of cash. and the market has moved up 20%+ i may be forced to wait for 12. not going to chase or do something stupid. we have years, is my guess for this thing to reach full expression. not one limit up day yet, in this whole bull market. when the jig is up, we will have many, the public will storm in and want the metals @all costs. the next phase will find institutional investors, coming into the mining sector. of course they will buy seniors and that will set the stage for the next phase. which is how much is gold in the ground worth. and thats when the explorers and juniors get their cue. you dont want to have too many juniors @this point. it is essentially dead money.
it seemed to me that yesterday, the broads are anticipating more printing. remember stocks are real assets. in weimar stocks went up until the printing became horrific, and some companies like damlier benz did well. eventually the last man standing will be gold. now if hugo salinas can get mexico to make silver currency, and other cbs follow suit, then you have a sound argument for silver. i do think silver is going higher, and maybe alot higher. but in the hands of mostly speculators, its demise will be violent. the move from 50 to 26 will be the norm.
end of oct to mid november is not part of the seasonally strong period. Diwali just occurred and the indians stocked up on gold. next is their wedding season. 1764 is my # , above that and we could get some mojo
dharma



dharma:

...from nimblebear on the FF main board:

Think about the bondholders and those who are supposedly "volunteering" for "just" a 50% haircut. It won't be ending at 50%, it won't be ending at Greece, the holders of that debt aren't only who you think they are. When a guy like Faber says to prefer stocks over bonds for the next 10 years, its NOT b/c stocks are going to do "well." Everything is relative. Not one person on the planet is anticipating what can happen to bond and debt holders, bc until now they've been backed by fiat. Certain bond holders in 2008 got creamed, and that was a walk in the park compared to what's coming, and how widespread and deep it will be. Today was literally the turning point. There is no going back. The situation is unsalvageable, and its going to hit the US far harder than the EU.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=135436


stubaby

stubaby, this has been a theme , that i have presented on this board. where i disagree w/nimble bear is, i think eu banks are so interwined in the debt ponzi scheme that they are all destined for the scrap heap. bond holders are very slowly leaving the bond arena, it will turn into a gallop. then where does the money go???? bond holders seek returns!
initially as interest rates are forced to rise, it will have a bearish effect on gold, and this coincides w/ my outlook for 12. slowly slowly the thing is unravel ling. you and i share the same fear- war . which is a way for the banksters to finance returns for their money, but that is a whole other topic. we will keep between us.
dharma

stubaby
dharma:

We are fast approaching another "inflection point" for gold - the 1,764 to 1,780 range.

I really don;t know what will happen there:
  • local 'top' and back down towards 1,520 (or lower)
  • acceleration "up"
At any rate I need to see 1,830 + for the "all clear" on this corretive phase, IMHO.

stubaby cool.gif
dharma
QUOTE (stubaby @ Oct 28 2011, 03:25 PM) *
dharma:

We are fast approaching another "inflection point" for gold - the 1,764 to 1,780 range.

I really don;t know what will happen there:
  • local 'top' and back down towards 1,520 (or lower)
  • acceleration "up"
At any rate I need to see 1,830 + for the "all clear" on this corretive phase, IMHO.

stubaby cool.gif

in one sense its a tough call, 1764( as per a gann technique, it is also sinclairs inflection point, we talked about these #s jg) is an inflection point . no doubt
however the seasonals remain supportive.
and the short cycle is up into december.
so in bull markets, i give the benefit of the doubt to the bull
of course we shall see.
ben davies did an interesting adjustment to the seasonals on kwn.
dharma
stubaby

Precious Metals BPI from Technical Watch
tradermama
QUOTE (stubaby @ Oct 29 2011, 11:27 AM) *

Hi Stubaby,
I subscribe to Dorsey's PNF....the price objective which of course can change is $2044 for gold from a Double Top pattern on 10/25......presently the weekly momentum is positive however we do have 18 X's (overbought on demand) which typically will mean a reversal should be coming soon back to Os (supply) but that will won't negate the Double Top breakout pattern till we hit 1604..till then it would mean buy the dip. Of course, you have to use regular TA to determine if momentum is picking up to the downside.

If we just touch 1604, we then will test those lows again as that would be a sell for PNF. That too could change if we have some up and down action. Then the sell would come at a higher level.

Now, if we touch 1740 before touching 1756, then we will reverse to O (supply taking over demand) but that could just satisfy the 18 X's alert which we just got last week and could reverse back to X eventually. From there, we would use regular TA to watch support and momentum to the downside..A reversal back to X could produce a more reliable pattern than the double top which happened on 10/25. Some of these patterns have better odds than others and of course the Double Top in PNF is not the same as a double top in regular TA. Thanks for all your great charts. I've been using Dorsey's PNF since 2000. It's good for trends and to eliminate a lot of the noise..It doesn't care about volume just supply and demand based on buy and sell signal like it said in that link. But, you have to combine it with regular TA too

TM
stubaby
QUOTE (tradermama @ Oct 30 2011, 08:31 AM) *
QUOTE (stubaby @ Oct 29 2011, 11:27 AM) *

Hi Stubaby,
I subscribe to Dorsey's PNF....the price objective which of course can change is $2044 for gold from a Double Top pattern on 10/25......presently the weekly momentum is positive however we do have 18 X's (overbought on demand) which typically will mean a reversal should be coming soon back to Os (supply) but that will won't negate the Double Top breakout pattern till we hit 1604..till then it would mean buy the dip. Of course, you have to use regular TA to determine if momentum is picking up to the downside.

If we just touch 1604, we then will test those lows again as that would be a sell for PNF. That too could change if we have some up and down action. Then the sell would come at a higher level.

Now, if we touch 1740 before touching 1756, then we will reverse to O (supply taking over demand) but that could just satisfy the 18 X's alert which we just got last week and could reverse back to X eventually. From there, we would use regular TA to watch support and momentum to the downside..A reversal back to X could produce a more reliable pattern than the double top which happened on 10/25. Some of these patterns have better odds than others and of course the Double Top in PNF is not the same as a double top in regular TA. Thanks for all your great charts. I've been using Dorsey's PNF since 2000. It's good for trends and to eliminate a lot of the noise..It doesn't care about volume just supply and demand based on buy and sell signal like it said in that link. But, you have to combine it with regular TA too

TM



tradermama:

Thanks - I use the "basic" Pnf charts available at Stockcharts on a regular baisis along with Elliot Wave as a "Check" against my primary TA. Sometimes when they ALL lineup in the same direction my confidence will increase! Also, oftentimes I can anticipate these alignments and make probing or initial entrys with tight stops and add with confirmation. Because I am an IT or swing trader I tend to build positions over time and sell the same way.

Thanks again for your regular inputs - they are very helpful (especially when I need to 'pull-back' from the day-to-day and keep focused on the Big Picture!)

stubaby
dharma
gold ralled 200 off the 1530 lows. now its pulled back about 25% of that rally , @todays lows. of course there is a possibility, that this was just a correction. i dont give this a high probability, but it is a consideration. the short cycle tops out in december, so i am playing it accordingly. when majors get beat up, like aem, i have to give them a hard look. it presents a rare opportunity.
i hear and read alot of talk about the miners catching up to the price of gold. i have no doubt that this will happen, the question is when? in the sequence of unfolding in the bull, next up will be institutions entering the fray, buying the larger cap miners. when that happens is anyones guess. i am mentally pepared to hold this stuff for years. against all the fiats i expect the pm sector to outperform. yes, there are foodstuffs and energy, but i saw last time, that gold/silver outprformed all commodities. 12 as an election year will require alot of spending.
and of course as time marches foward, there will be ever increasing volatility. buy weakness and sell strength. will be the drill
dharma
stubaby

dharma:

  • Interesting "bounce" for Gold of off that critical 1,705 level in the futures overnight
  • 3rd time for Yen intervention this year, as the Japanese "fight" Yen repatriation flows for reconstruction money - what a losing battle
  • HUI Wave 2 complete or nearly so


stubaby
dharma
QUOTE (stubaby @ Oct 31 2011, 03:12 PM) *
dharma:

  • Interesting "bounce" for Gold of off that critical 1,705 level in the futures overnight
  • 3rd time for Yen intervention this year, as the Japanese "fight" Yen repatriation flows for reconstruction money - what a losing battle
  • HUI Wave 2 complete or nearly so


stubaby

stubaby, yes the move in gold today is counterintuitive. the japanese sell yen to devalue their currency to improve imports. this so they can reconstruct after their devastating earthquake and tsunami. yes, i agree this down move is almost complete. 1697 still a possibility . tomorrow is the fed. all these fiats are in competitive devaluations against each other. and of course against gold they will seek true value.
the only question to my mind is when do the miners achieve fair value
dharma
dougie
will the miners diverge here with commodities as EURO, OIL, and USD alll argue that risk assets are in trouble here IT
dharma
QUOTE (dougie @ Oct 31 2011, 04:00 PM) *
will the miners diverge here with commodities as EURO, OIL, and USD alll argue that risk assets are in trouble here IT

i dont know much but what i see is
countries in a race to devalue their currencies. right now its devaluing against each other.
light volume day on the miners.
gold going down against another currency debasement. last time it was when the swiss devalued. the games will continue, until the market determines otherwise.
oil has just had a big rise off the 75 low, so a pullback is not unwarranted.
its all how you view the tape
dharma
JGUITARSLIM
Au down $20+, As down $1.
The miners down on very light volume.
The pause that refreshes. I see nothing more than that today.
IMO...today was a buying opportunity.


dougie
well we will see. i see a nice wave 2 down in USD with a wave 3 up just having started as one possibility even if not favored
dharma
i realize the top of this upmove was friday, so there is not alot of information. @this point there is a 3wave upmove on the chart. on my price cycle work, price is holding. there are times when gold goes up and the dollar goes up. watching the dollar and making conclusions will lead one to the poor house.
seasonally this is a weak period http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html
as long as nothing gets violated here, then a larger correction will not occur.
i am watching the gold market and attuning myself to that.
richard russell
Gold-lovers are obsessed
with the daily
price of gold. This is a
waste of time. The real
question is how much of
your assets are in gold?
Gold is the one single universal test of wealth and purchasing power. At one time, a measure of wealth could be answered
by “How much gold do you own?” At various intervals in history, fiat money wasn’t considered wealth. This is all you have
to know about gold. Periodically, there are times when only gold is considered wealth.
Writes Jim Grant — “Gold is an expression of the world’s distrust of the way
our central bankers conduct
their affairs.”

the volatility will make one dizzy. keep to your compass. the volatility will only increase as the system becomes more unstable
dharma
well one of the former band of thieves @gs worked his magic on mf global, and there are millions of dollars missing!! now will the former gov of nj corizine walk away unscathed???! or will he join bernie!? of course bernie had no politicans in his pocket, while the former ceo of gs does?! going to be interesting! fair and equitable?!
what do you think?????????????????????/
stubaby
QUOTE (dougie @ Nov 1 2011, 03:05 AM) *
well we will see. i see a nice wave 2 down in USD with a wave 3 up just having started as one possibility even if not favored



dougie:

That's my Alt count, but until 77.87 is cleared it's low probability - feels like a typical Wave 2 here after Wave 1 to me:


I'm more interested in the movement in Treasuries-as a top is being carved out here!



stubaby
dougie
treatcherous out there
could be the lows were in this AM in Miners?
Could be
Could be something else too
stubaby


dharma:

Got the initial buy-in on AEM this am sub-$42 also added to FSM. I like what I am seeing here!


stubaby cool.gif
dharma
QUOTE (stubaby @ Nov 1 2011, 02:42 PM) *
dharma:

Got the initial buy-in on AEM this am sub-$42 also added to FSM. I like what I am seeing here!


stubaby cool.gif

stubaby, gold has regained strong support, miners have definitely improved. watching the 1716 support for gold , want to see it close above that to show strength. tomorrow is the fed. it will be very difficult to hold @higher #s as volatility causes sea sickness. dramamine wont help.
treacherous waters. sharks gobbling up the weak holders.
all kinds of possibilities out there. seasonally weak time http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_gold.html
dharma
dharma
yesterday, appears to me, to be the bottom of this corrective wave. if that is the case, then i dont look for those lows to be violated. then we should be beginning a new impulse up here. a $400 correction qualifies as a major correction since the august highs. i would think someone took a chunk of money out of that. and didnt bring it to the bank!!
its obvious to those paying attention, the bull wants as few riders as possible. bring your account to a place where you are comfortable and will not get bucked off. we are rapidly approaching ,imo another up wave. we are in a crises. sovereigns are deep in debt and cant pay. other sovereigns and their cbs have bought their debt causing them to be in trouble. talk about a ponzi scheme. bernie was a piker!!!
it is going to take saintly patience and detachment from emotions. i got wrapped up yesterday and didnt buy a thing. which is very disappointing to me. i missed a great opportunity. as time marches forward the crises will spread to other areas. gold will be the last vehicle standing. it is debt free. it is real money
i dont expect yesterdays lows or 1650 gold to be violated.
now what is the fed going to say? what weapons do they have @their disposal?!the ecb is trying to prop up the weak sisters of their union! how will they do this? DEBASE! if the game isnt obvious to you, you are not paying attention. we are talking about fiat here. dont get snaked out. we have thousands of dollars to go on the upside. and some years to do it in. its not a new game, its been going on like forever.
dharma
swanstkdh
QUOTE (dharma @ Nov 2 2011, 09:57 AM) *
yesterday, appears to me, to be the bottom of this corrective wave. if that is the case, then i dont look for those lows to be violated. then we should be beginning a new impulse up here. a $400 correction qualifies as a major correction since the august highs. i would think someone took a chunk of money out of that. and didnt bring it to the bank!!
its obvious to those paying attention, the bull wants as few riders as possible. bring your account to a place where you are comfortable and will not get bucked off. we are rapidly approaching ,imo another up wave. we are in a crises. sovereigns are deep in debt and cant pay. other sovereigns and their cbs have bought their debt causing them to be in trouble. talk about a ponzi scheme. bernie was a piker!!!
it is going to take saintly patience and detachment from emotions. i got wrapped up yesterday and didnt buy a thing. which is very disappointing to me. i missed a great opportunity. as time marches forward the crises will spread to other areas. gold will be the last vehicle standing. it is debt free. it is real money
i dont expect yesterdays lows or 1650 gold to be violated.
now what is the fed going to say? what weapons do they have @their disposal?!the ecb is trying to prop up the weak sisters of their union! how will they do this? DEBASE! if the game isnt obvious to you, you are not paying attention. we are talking about fiat here. dont get snaked out. we have thousands of dollars to go on the upside. and some years to do it in. its not a new game, its been going on like forever.
dharma

This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.