Felix Zulauf

My two major themes into 2013 are euro disintegration and China weakness, due to the bursting of a real-estate boom.

How will the U.S do in your scenario?

On a relative basis, the U.S. could do best. It has more of an affinity for freedom than socialist-minded Europe, and if the U.S. is clever, it could become energy self-sufficient by developing natural gas and shale oil.

What is an investor to do in the face of this unpleasant news?

I am sticking with my January recommendations. In the short-term, equity and commodity markets are making a low. They are oversold. The euro zone will come up with new quick fixes later this month and markets will attempt to rally. But I see a cyclical bear market continuing well into 2013.

I would hold lots of cash, preferably in U.S. dollars. While I expected Treasury yields to hit bottom in the fall, I would take some profits and not buy new bonds. Sell the rest in the fall, and use a stop-loss order to protect profits if you bought the 10-year when it was yielding 2.20% in January, as I recommended. Stick with Australian three-year government bond futures. This is a direct bet on China's weakening, and short-term rates could fall further. I also continue to recommend buying gold if it breaks below $1500. That could lead to a quick shakeout into the $1300s, but gold will offer protection in coming years because it is true money.


http://online.barron.....abs_article=2

Is the Key Word "Greece" or "Deflation"?

Two decent barometers of global pricing pressures, Copper and the MS Commodity Index (CRX), may have created multi-year head & shoulders topping patterns, with the neckline support being tested right now.


http://advisorperspe...r-Deflation.php