I have hard time seeing an advance beyond this bounce.

Not immidiatelly at least. MCO overbought, VIX oversold, Price overbought, Hopes are high. As silly bounces and left over momentum evaporate, this is going to head lower, IMO. Oil and AAPL are weak too. We had an 800 point DOW rally off the low based on practically nothing but hopes and oversold condition. Well you can throw in Quadruple witching there too. This has to at least consolidate for a few days, if its going higher into End of quarter. If it does I expect bullishness to get to extremes there. But I'm not going to play it. Still short. Looking to cover possibly tomorrow when the pullback should accelerate.

Edited by ogm, 20 June 2012 - 12:37 PM.

And another observation. Lately the big directional moves happen between 9:30 and 11:00 am. Driven mostly by european markets. And that isn't including overnight gaps. European markets are the real drivers and they are yet to express their dissapointment in the Fed decision not to shower them with additional speculative money. So we'll find out overnight/tomorrow morning, what they really think of this rally.

I don't think the strength in the market has anything to do with anything else but what the Supreme Court decision is "sometime in June". If they strike it down or the mandatory portion of it, I would think that would add "certainty" to the economic picture going forward and give the operators an excuse for the "summer rally" "ridiculous markup on light volume short squeeze" that they would like to pull off. I doubt the market is going to tank if it is struck down. If it is upheld, I am closing all my equity accounts and seeking other avenues to protect my nest egg. Eventually stocks will go to zero.

OGM, I'm on board with you this time. With your last post (that i saw) i mentioned the divergent tick then thrust set up and it indeed played out nicely, although i saw your time frame for your short was only 1-2 days and it worked out for you. This time one of my key indicators, that id rather not share, says the odds from here are for lower in the coming days but i think its 50/50 if it already started or has a little more chop in this vicinity before the down move begins. Id like to see the close. I think a strong close is actually super bearish and a weak close may mean a little more chop before the move begins. SL

Supreme Court Vote .... Could be. This is yet another big piece of the puzzle. Along with Elections, "Fiscal Cliff", global economic uncertainty, etc. I don't think this market is thinking too far ahead at this point. We had a put options burning bounce bounce into Greek Elections, followed by the Fed. Market participants were not immediately rewarded and the next news isn't for a few days. So disappointment is in order. Back to uncertainty. All these waves of hope into the news are bound to be disappointing. There is no immediate resolution to any issues out there.

Edited by ogm, 20 June 2012 - 01:58 PM.

Until that decision is in the bag, no overnight holding for me... That'd be gambling.

OGM,

I'm on board with you this time. With your last post (that i saw) i mentioned the divergent tick then thrust set up and it indeed played out nicely,
although i saw your time frame for your short was only 1-2 days and it worked out for you. This time one of my key indicators, that
id rather not share, says the odds from here are for lower in the coming days but i think its 50/50 if it already started or has a little more chop
in this vicinity before the down move begins. Id like to see the close. I think a strong close is actually super bearish and a weak close may mean a little
more chop before the move begins.

SL

I'm just very cautious thinking ahead more then a couple days at this time. This market is a mess.

If we break 200 SMA with failing internals, I'd be inclined to get more bearish. And I'm certainly not bullish..lol.

I'm just very cautious thinking ahead more then a couple days at this time. This market is a mess.

If we break 200 SMA with failing internals, I'd be inclined to get more bearish. And I'm certainly not bullish..lol.

OGM,

My call too could be for more than a couple days but will have to see how the market reacts to the expected pullback.
Ill be watching VIX. If VIX rallys big it would be bullish for market. If VIX continues to under estimate the current
volatility then i would expect the market to stay bearish.

SL

Semi, Call me stupid but what decision do you speak of?

Supreme Court may reveal healthcare verdict Thursday

The court is not meeting Friday, so if the healthcare decision does not come Thursday, the next opportunity would be Monday