Don't get too Bearish

Let me state first off that I see important lows here and in Oct/Nov then Jul 2013 and even a hiccup later in 2013 but then a great up move into Aug 2015 or so etc. and more.

Some of this I have posted before so bear with me.

The decennial or 10 year pattern says we are at a great place for a major low.



The presidential or 4 year cycle says this is getting close to a great place for a higher low.



For an yearly model let me use an Australian average I have from 1983. It suggests Tuesday 26th June as ideal for a low.



At this point I can add I was looking for a 56 cal day decline and it didn't work from the SPX high BUT from The May 1 high of DJIA it is June 26.

Ferrera has his annual low at about June 26.

Astrologer Merriman has June 25.

GannGlobal has a recent clip that suggests commodities down into Oct/Nov but worth watching for equities and the futures. Worth watching even through the rubbish.

http://www.ganngloba...inar-Replay.php

I consider the combination or presidential and decennial cycles as MOST important.

As such you check 20 year periods. 2X10=20 5X4=20

So here is 1992 or 20 years ago.

Voltaire, Thanks for your charts. Thanks always. I have a question about miners BHP and RIO. While steel names here in US and all over the world have been pounded in 2012, RIO and BHP have relatively been stable. Is this a good time to load up these 2 for the next 3 months?

"The most heavily populated time band of some of the most powerful geocosmic signatures of 2012 will take place June 23-29...These are the kind of signatures that can correspond to a market meltdown...June 11, Jupiter will begin its one-year sojourn through Gemini, while Mercury forms a T-square to the Uranus-Pluto square...another signature of a potential “plunge” day for stocks, and another preview of what to expect during the entire Uranus-Pluto square of June 24, 2012 through March 17, 2015."

Ray Merriman

The presidential or 4 year cycle says this is getting close to a great place for a higher low.

I posted something similar last weekend based on the presidential cycle: Average year so far. Up from here.?
We have been following a 4 year pattern fairly closely so far and there is a historical upward bias beginning soon, "normally" anyway.

But I have these reservations:
How did that work out in 2008?
Are there any similar worldwide economic pressures now, many still unresolved (and possibly compounded by misdirected expenditures of TRILLIONS of dollars) since 2008?
How does the presidential cycle work in years where we are re-entering a recession?

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 June 2012 - 09:16 AM.

Voltarie has the historical patterns right, but the emergent events over ride history often.

Maybe good advice to not get too bearish, but we need to recall that this year and this election is not typical. EU, Fiscal Cliff, Middle east, China?

Good advice, Islander.

Edited by Islander, 23 June 2012 - 10:03 AM.

It's a long piece of work, but I thought worth the read.

Adds a little historical overview perspective to the current global monetary theatrics...

An Austrian Defense of the Euro

V We are on day 11 of TDSEQ buy countdown on $INX and $RUT, day 10 on $COMPX daily charts . However, some defaults (Perl and Bloomberg) require that day 13 be lower than day 8, which was the June 4 low on $INX and $RUT, or May 17 on $Compx, -- the older versions require a bar with a low lower than the close of day 10. An Inverse H&S or a double bottom over Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday would trigger buy signals. Countdown was cancelled on $INDU by TDSEQ sell signal. That would fit your charting. However, I doubt we will get signals we can tie bows around as the alignment lately has been messy/conflicting. Geo

But I have these reservations:
How did that work out in 2008?
Are there any similar worldwide economic pressures now, many still unresolved (and possibly compounded by misdirected expenditures of TRILLIONS of dollars) since 2008?
How does the presidential cycle work in years where we are re-entering a recession?

Yes Victoria, this time it is different

.on January 2013...
.Capital gains rate scheduled to jump from 15% to 28%
.Dividend tax rate scheduled to jump from 15% to as high as 39.6%
.Death tax jumps from 0% to as high as 55%
.
.New Record National debt
.Longest time to find a job since great depression
.Record number of people on food stamps
.US Sovereign debt downgraded..first in history
.Record (47%) people depending on a gov't check

Nah all minor items...the stock market will just climb on the Great Wall of Worry.
By golly Greece & Spain have similar problems...how's their stocks doing?

Voltaire, Thanks for your charts. Thanks always. I have a question about miners BHP and RIO. While steel names here in US and all over the world have been pounded in 2012, RIO and BHP have relatively been stable. Is this a good time to load up these 2 for the next 3 months?

DrSP

I didn't post it here before because I didn't think mostly US traders would be interested, but my thoughts were part of a larger thought that the US may hold up albeit with a dip into Oct/Nov while Australia floundered because of a commodity decline.

This would obviously be detrimental to BHP and Rio Tinto etc.

For some time the US markets have outperformed Australian even though the latter economy is in far better shape.

Monthly indicators have the US still bullish and Australian still bearish. The latter look like a Oct/Nov low at the earliest to me.



Here is the 1992 Australian market. Could a rally be over as soon as early July?

Of course I never expect exact repeats of any previous market.

I will copy my tweets here because I am tired of typing the same stuff --some of the English is cut short due to the limitations in twitter... @qckisa: Probably Fed will step in somewhere in between SPX 1280 and 1300 at this point... Letting the market collapse below 1280 would be suicide. @qckisa: The recent action after the confirmed up trend of 35 week cycle low is worrisome, but benefit of the doubt is for upside early in cycle. @qckisa: Even if this is a major bear toward Jan-Feb of 2013 or 70 week cycle lows, one would expect 8-9 weeks of upside bias or into Aug 2012. @qckisa: The 11-12 week and 50-52 week seasonalities are still strong, perhaps the trading range may last into late July. @qckisa: If the prices are held down in a trading range into late July, then the 35 week cycle would end with a bang out of a sharp rise into Aug... @qckisa: The market does not seem to be strong to defend SPX 1330 gap, but SPX 1300 zone may produce a significant rally into early July. (more like the forecast for the week)

Edited by arbman, 24 June 2012 - 05:47 AM.