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Déjà Vu


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#1 IYB

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 09:41 AM

Gann 2 year hit. Almost enough to make me want to go study the rest of the theory. ;)

Follow up to the Summer Solstice Sell Signal. Here are hourly charts from now and equivalent period in 2010:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=p75048732541&a=267020840&r=6559.png

Here was equivalent retrace to 13-day ema after signal in June 2010:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=60&st=2010-05-28&en=2010-06-29&i=p62965007081&a=269656601&r=3028.png

It has been said that markets do not repeat but that they do rhyme from time to time, and this market is rhyming with June 2010 in a rather remarkable way. We've made reference to this before, but this rally looks just about exactly like the early June 2010 rally off that bottom, which subsequently peaked on Summer Solstice - which was June 21, 2010. Here is what that looked like:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2010-03-01&en=2010-07-01&i=p45962201791&a=219265881&r=1340242269177.png

Now let's look at the recent rally off of the recent early June 2012 low, as internals including the our Hourly Trend Trackers and Seven Sentinels have tracked nearly identicaly - and we look to have again peaked on Summer Solstice today:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p92020892343&a=225433288&r=298.png

Good weekend all, D


“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#2 arbman

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Posted 25 June 2012 - 03:26 PM

Thanks Don, it was an excellent call from the top, but I am still looking for the evidence to continue lower. I think we get a bounce maybe and then more downside like you predict. If the 70 week cycle is going to be about 73-74 weeks, there is a bit room for the phase shift and hence new lows right this week, but if 1300 zone holds here for 2 more sessions, I would say this decline was a scary shake out.