Cycles

I think the selling volume down to 1300 support this morning is weaker than 6/21... even weaker than Friday's bounce...

I am calling this a low ahead of a few days of rally at least back to highs, but the bottoming may take 2 more days. Probably it will be a bounce and then come down for another double bottomish action. If you count about 17-18 sessions from June 4 low, it is actually Wed-Thursday --just estimating with the information I am able to gather at the moment...

The most destructive (largest volume) impulse was actually on Fed's day and it failed to break the 1330 support, so this decline below that gap support is actually not sustainable. The market should snap quickly back to 1330 support.

In the mean time NYSE MCO is testing the zero line, we should get at least a strong bounce...

Good luck out there...

As always, thanks for everything you share. FWIW, I had an hourly buy alert come in on IWM at the top of the 11:00 EDT hour. Waiting for entry confirmation on lower time frames. I'm a little surprised at the flatness of the market since the open. Support for IWM @ 76, 75.80, and 75 - with a fib target for reversal of 75.17. TWT

BTW, given the 30-32 day and 60 day harmonics, it is likely that this harmonics is only 15-16 days. This would put the low right for tomorrow or today. We do not have the clear data yet about the changing length of cycle periods, obviously they are slightly longer than the 10-11 day cycle samples up until the 34-35 wk cycle low. The cycles are slowing down and it makes sense going into the 70 wk cycle from this fall into winter. The shortest sample came in 5-6 days right after June 4 low, this doesn't make sense, there is a drastic phase shift in the market structure... Obviously, a disappointed market.

Edited by arbman, 25 June 2012 - 11:17 AM.

The chart signals in oil complex (CL, ERX, USO, etc) are also close to completing an IT bottom, another 1 or 2 days. Maybe a last big spike down to $74 on crude without violating the TDSEQ 13 that completed in CLQ12 last Thursday. Per Sat interviews with Ike, Eric Hadik and Stan Harley also see IT cycle lows around now in CL and bigger cycle lows around Oct.

Edited by Geomean, 25 June 2012 - 11:24 AM.

Expect SPX 1300 be tested in the next couple days............

well done.

im also seeing a small positive divergence on the shortterm charts (5m-15m) but price will likely trend lower until we see positive divergences show up on the daily charts.. because of our overall daily signal becoming a sell signal.. even my 60m chart has yet to even outline a full divergence so lower first ...

..and hopefully no one is taking these 15m buy signals ..that can fade away into lower lows and further loses.

we are trending lower and im with you maybe there is some hope for a bounce from lower prices.

I think the selling volume down to 1300 support this morning is weaker than 6/21... even weaker than Friday's bounce...

I am calling this a low ahead of a few days of rally at least back to highs, but the bottoming may take 2 more days. Probably it will be a bounce and then come down for another double bottomish action. If you count about 17-18 sessions from June 4 low, it is actually Wed-Thursday --just estimating with the information I am able to gather at the moment...

The most destructive (largest volume) impulse was actually on Fed's day and it failed to break the 1330 support, so this decline below that gap support is actually not sustainable. The market should snap quickly back to 1330 support.

In the mean time NYSE MCO is testing the zero line, we should get at least a strong bounce...

Good luck out there...

Edited by Mr Dev, 25 June 2012 - 02:02 PM.

The long dated bond complex displays similar counts as CL and US equities, Friday was day 10 of a TDSEQ sell countdown. Unclear whether today will print day 11.