Out on Limb

July 11 +/- might be the epicenter down, Jul 18 cycle low. Weds could be a good short entry, no damage in weekly channels yet, all normal range so far, just getting started? The interesting point is the RUT was not really starting down until Thurs, which allows Weds up from another point of view, now SPX daily is lining up well with the truthteller (RUT).

The 30-32 trading day cycle low would project to May 16-18 time frame in my work too, it is one of the important cycles, the 50 wk yearly seasonal pattern also down plays the rally potential. We had summer lows in 2010 and 2011, however early July had upside bias. Actually there is a bigger 60 day cycle low due in late August, precisely about 30-32 sessions after May 16-18. Fed is clearly managing the volatility much better compared to 2010 and 2011 summers so far. Partially also because the fair value is also higher than 2 years ago, but also the growth is saturating, there will be an important decline into winter at some point for the major 70wk low. That decline may begin toward 18 wk cycle low from June 4 around first week of October, it is also part of the 70 wk harmonics... I think we will see a mini-crash this October with early signs this summer. The rally out of 60 tdays rally into the first 1-2 weeks of September may suck everyone in right before that mini-crash...

Edited by arbman, 27 June 2012 - 02:51 AM.

Obviously it is July 16-18, not May... LOL

It may interest you to know there's a Gann date I've computed in a few different ways from the Square of 9 for September 22, though that whole period from 9/22 - 10/6 looks ripe. Hurst nominal 20 week lows should be around there, which corresponds to your 18 week. I think it likely to be a low as well after this July rally.