MARKET THOUGHTS

my SPX 5&10m trend signals barely hung on at the close and the 15m Oscillators ran into 1st tier resistance and thus the last 15m bar turned down red on the day for a sell signal. that is also supporting a 60m trend sell signal for the SPX which still has room to pop into 2nd tier resistance on my 15m charts up at 1328, and without breaking the down trend signal. my 60m Oscillator signal did turn positive mid day, but failed to cross the momentum area which it would do with any gap up but then i would worry soon about it becoming overbought by mid day. the 60m chart also is showing 2 tier resistance up at 1328 and 1336 which looks like it would need a big push to break above and likely need a couple of attempts. at this time the internal charts are still holding well enough to provide a bounce although it still looks like it should come from lower price levels. still patiently waiting for at least two up days and a trend to begin before folding the shorts. good trades to all .

Edited by Mr Dev, 27 June 2012 - 12:23 AM.

Precisely 1328 and 1336 are key for bears to hold for VST... However my 15-16 day cyclical range calls for a rally to 1350 gap zone as I do not think the up trend is invalidated yet, but only the initial 35 wk cycle thrust from June 4th is consolidating for a wide trading range with upside bias until mid August. If we see a close of the 1280 gap below, then two conclusions are possible; (1) the 35 wk cycle period will become longer and a better rally will begin for several weeks (major rally must happen immediately like this or next week) or (2) we will see a few attempts to regain the 1300 level, but they will fail for major major bear decline into late August. I am keeping obviously the long term strangles, either way we are looking for 100 point moves. All I care is to manage the time cost of the contracts for the short term (calendar spreads etc)... We will have major major movements out of this setup...

Edited by arbman, 27 June 2012 - 02:33 AM.

If we see a close of the 1280 gap below, then two conclusions are possible; (1) the 35 wk cycle period will become longer and a better rally will begin for several weeks (major rally must happen immediately like this or next week) or (2) we will see a few attempts to regain the 1300 level, but they will fail for major major bear decline into late August.

I was looking at that 1297 200 DMA as the tell -

dave, what is your stop loss point..thx

16 day cycle is about 50-60 points, tests of highs?

Edited by arbman, 27 June 2012 - 11:19 AM.

yes arb but before 50-60 there is some major resistance so im not yet convinced we dont chop back and forth a bit longer.. .always happens when we are stuck between some major MAs. keep up the good work.