ISEE Index has been below 100 for 9 days in a row, implying that people are buying PUTS expecting the market to go further down.
I checked previous times when ISEE index was in those low levels for a long period of time:
The current one June 18 - 28 so far for 9 days......
April 4 - 11 2012 for 5 days: was followed by a 37 point rally in SP500 but that was the peak of May 1 2012.
Sept 27 - Oct 4 2011 for 6 days: That was The Bottom of 2011.
Sept. 14 - 22 2011 for 7 days: was a semi-bottom just before the Oct 4 bottom.
June 9 - 16 2010 for 6 days: marked a peak, was followed by a 92 point decline to July 1 which was The Bottom of 2010.
March 13- 20 2008 for 6 days: was a bottom followed by 97 point rally into May 16 2008 from where a major sell-off of 2008 emerged.
Feb. 26 - March 11 2008 for 11 days: This is the period just before the previous one, they are separated with a one day 101 reading in ISEE. So, the period from Feb. 26- March 20 2008 is the longest period under 101 with 18 days.
March 2 - 9 2007 for 6 days: was a bottom followed by a 137 point rally to June 4 2007.
This by itself may not be saying too much without taking into consideration other things, but IMHO it is telling me that a rally is imminent at least for the short term.
We need to hear from others how you see this in light of other indicators.
Thank you all in advance for your contributions.
R.
Interpret this for me please
Started by
Romans
, Jun 28 2012 05:49 PM
2 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 28 June 2012 - 05:49 PM
#2
Posted 28 June 2012 - 07:51 PM
Hey Romans,
I've found it unreliable using options data as a sole leading indicator to foretell the turns in the underlying equities or indexes. They are, nevertheless, good "background" references.
#3
Posted 28 June 2012 - 11:46 PM
Hey Techman,
You have a good point, but the pattern I observed can have a valid suggestion.
IMHO it suggests that either we are going to rally to a top now from where we will come down real hard, for example to 1125 and that will be some kind of final bottom,
or we have already bottomed and will build up on this like we did after July 1 2010 and Oct 4 2011.
In any case there should be a rally.
As I was thinking this the news came from Europe and there is the rally beginning.
Now, the rally can take several days, peak and can come down, or the tide has turned and we are already in the Bull market as of now.
Time will tell. But the severe stubborn bearishness was kind of visible in the ISEE data.
Best to you.










