Bears... do get scared by this rampup

Market leaves behind 16 point gap and doesn't seem to be interested in filling it, bad sign for bears. Target remains... SPX 1370, probably by 4th of July? Bears... lost again and again...

Edited by arbman, 29 June 2012 - 01:29 AM.

Oh contraire. Target was 1360 SPX cash and was met. New target is 1400 SPX cash off the 10wk FLD upcross last week. Doc

Have some mercy on bears... July 17-18 is an important cycle low, probably there will be a pause just under 1400 before blasting higher.

Arbman, we must use the exact same targeting thingy... The resistance is obvious but my favorite stupid simple Fib thing gives the same for this leg. Hopefully turns into a slow sustainable grind up, I hate gaps, they get filled.

I would hate to sound like an {bleeeep} here, but the gaps are inflection points, there are gaps that get filled and there are gaps that won't get filled until the next bear market hits. I feel this is one of those. In trading, you buy and hedge. The reason of these gigantic gaps is now simply the leveraged positions piling up and gunning overnight, also the markets are now globally connected... But mostly because of the pressure of the leveraged positions eventually resolving forcefully in a direction. Basically, if you want to find your way in these volatile markets, you must hedge and fearlessly take your position, my favorite strategy is to trade with the calendar spreads. Then the gaps will not be any more problem.

Edited by arbman, 29 June 2012 - 09:48 AM.

I would hate to sound like an {bleeeep} here, but the gaps are inflection points, there are gaps that get filled and there are gaps that won't get filled until the next bear market hits. I feel this is one of those.

In trading, you buy and hedge. The reason of these gigantic gaps is now simply the leveraged positions piling up and gunning overnight, also the markets are now globally connected... But mostly because of the pressure of the leveraged positions eventually resolving forcefully in a direction.

Basically, if you want to find your way in these volatile markets, you must hedge and fearlessly take your position, my favorite strategy is to trade with the calendar spreads. Then the gaps will not be any more problem.

I think you are correct here Arbman. We are likely to see a small pullback next week as we are now at the previous top in the INDU and SPX, but it won't be much. I bet the daily will look like a cup and handle.

I feel robbed though... I closed my tradable longs 20 minutes before we blasted north last night.

Orange, I also hedged a bit too much due to the tech breaking the lows on Thursday night. I had an half position in calls hedged with a put spread and then I added the other half on Thursday, but I sold calls in the second half position to offset the time decay as I thought the move would come on Monday. The short calls came into the money and limited the gains on the second half, but overall good gains on the first half at least. Sometimes you just need to sit tight, but I was lucky that the market gave two entries this week and I took half of the profits on Wed's rally, so good gains for the week...