macro speculator

The news from Europe doesn't help. This is a sucker rally. Giving out some money without austerity or seniority doesn't matter if there isn't much money to give. The EFSF is almost spent after Greece and a few others and northern countries don't have much interest (or ability) in increasing the funds. A few billion to Spain without conditions doesn't solve any major problems. And don't forget treasuries are in the 1.65% range and gold/silver/oil are way below their peaks and earnings coming out have been brutal. As have employment and economic indicators. Don't be the sucker here...fade this all the way.

The news from Europe doesn't help. This is a sucker rally. Giving out some money without austerity or seniority doesn't matter
if there isn't much money to give. The EFSF is almost spent after Greece and a few others and northern countries don't have much
interest (or ability) in increasing the funds.

A few billion to Spain without conditions doesn't solve any major problems.

And don't forget treasuries are in the 1.65% range and gold/silver/oil are way below their peaks and earnings coming out have been
brutal. As have employment and economic indicators.

Don't be the sucker here...fade this all the way.

This is an EXTREMELY LARGE 3rd wave breakout...short it I dare you

We're up at least 30 handles since your last "sucker rally" post....just sayin' IT

Macro, I agree with u... in the longer term.. but TIMING is also very important... the MINIMUM i see this rally going is at least till 5-6 of July.. Your call might be vindicated towards end July to August where US Dollar will become king again. But for now, the short covering is going to push it much higher. Cheers.

We're up at least 30 handles since your last "sucker rally" post....just sayin'

IT

Hey, it's cool. I shorted above 1400 and covered most of my puts/short at 1278 on the employment number. Since then I've been focusing on Chipotle puts mostly as I've been posting (which has been crashing the past few days) and starting to buy more puts in the 1320-1340 area. I'm using December puts right now so these short-term spikes don't bother me.


I'm still confident this is a bearish consolidation after a 160 point decline, and then we will soon resume our way down. Target is still under 1250 over
the coming weeks. Perhaps it gets pushed to August as xtrader says, but either way I think the trend has shifted to down.

Edited by Macro Speculator, 29 June 2012 - 08:18 AM.

The news from Europe doesn't help. This is a sucker rally. Giving out some money without austerity or seniority doesn't matter
if there isn't much money to give. The EFSF is almost spent after Greece and a few others and northern countries don't have much
interest (or ability) in increasing the funds.

A few billion to Spain without conditions doesn't solve any major problems.

And don't forget treasuries are in the 1.65% range and gold/silver/oil are way below their peaks and earnings coming out have been
brutal. As have employment and economic indicators.

Don't be the sucker here...fade this all the way.

This is an EXTREMELY LARGE 3rd wave breakout...short it I dare you

This is definitely NOT a 3rd wave breakout or an EXTREMELY LARGE one at that.

Macro, let me know when you capitulate, I'll sell my longs!

The news from Europe doesn't help. This is a sucker rally. Giving out some money without austerity or seniority doesn't matter
if there isn't much money to give. The EFSF is almost spent after Greece and a few others and northern countries don't have much
interest (or ability) in increasing the funds.

A few billion to Spain without conditions doesn't solve any major problems.

And don't forget treasuries are in the 1.65% range and gold/silver/oil are way below their peaks and earnings coming out have been
brutal. As have employment and economic indicators.

Don't be the sucker here...fade this all the way.

This is an EXTREMELY LARGE 3rd wave breakout...short it I dare you

This is definitely NOT a 3rd wave breakout or an EXTREMELY LARGE one at that.

Also, I don't get what the bulls are celebrating. That this move this morning is taking us to 1) a lower level than just a few days ago? 2) back to levels we reached 4.5 months ago in early february 3) back to levels we reached over 1 year ago in May 2011?

What is the celebration here for? That Europe was saved for the 25th time with the 30th new program? All this exuberance with bonds and commodities at these levels, and so many economies in recession or slowing down, and so many companies reporting awful earnings, just doesn't make sense to me.

Macro, let me know when you capitulate, I'll sell my longs!

Again, I am accumulating December puts (with $130 strike prices) at all of these levels after covering most of my positions under 1280 from the 1400 area.
All of that was posted a while ago. Same with Chipotle...look where it is and look at my posts.

The past few months have been some of my best in the past few years. I am not capitulating here....I am starting to OPEN and ACCUMULATE new shorts and puts for the next wave down.


I LOVE this bullishness. People believe again....just wait until earnings start coming out!

Edited by Macro Speculator, 29 June 2012 - 08:29 AM.

I LOVE this bullishness. People believe again....just wait until earnings start coming out!

Macro - I am bearish the economy but I am with the bulls here - what we just got from europe is a change in the nominal. and the big kahuna is this

"Spain's 10-year bond yield plunged 34 bp to 6.60% and Italy's 10-year yield tumbled 26 bp to 5.93%."

this was the play, and it will be the play again, but there has to be a breather, and the breather is conveniently at quarter end, etc.