Merriman Weekly column July 9th

Updating alerts from Dorsey's pnf..slv's RS (relative Strength )changed yesterday from X to O..this takes time for the RS to change..hence, if gold is going to make any substantial run it needs silver with miners to accompany it...silver is showing signs of weakness now to the market..whereby supply is taking over demand..that said we still got our Mercury in Saggi in effect (60% of the time we get a big rally..20% it's mild..20% its down..then again maybe we saw it?) and that doesn't mean a bounce or even a rally whereby gold even gets a pnf buy signal at 1640...to me it just means that it will still be choppy till silver comes on board..otherwise we test the Dec's lows again and the next test most likely won't hold. Both gold,silver and gdx still on a pnf sell..Chan has a buy on gld and slv..he could have a failed buy or he's hit it before pnf and we do see 1640 next week.. TM Home Weekly Preview MMA Comments for the Week Beginning July 9, 2012 Please note: This is not the same as our service titled "MMA Weekly Comments and Recommendations on Financial Markets" which is available by subscription only. Flowchart on MMA Products and Services MMA Comments for the Week Beginning July 9, 2012 Written by Raymond Merriman Review and Preview What a difference a week makes. For that matter, every couple of days seems to make a difference under Uranus square Pluto. Nothing is stable. Everything that looks good today is prone to suddenly looking not so good tomorrow. And just when it looks like its going to fall apart, something surprising comes up and suddenly everything looks promising again. Except it’s not. This is what life is going to be like under the first quarter cycle phase of the 112-147 year Uranus-Pluto cycle that is now in effect through March 2015. It’s an aspect of many surprises, twists, and turns. But then that shouldn’t surprise you if you have been reading this column for the past year. Still, it is one remarkable and fascinating cosmic climate we are in. Speaking of climate… anytime Pluto is involved in hard aspect another far-out planet (like Uranus), the potential for crop damage due to severe weather patterns rises sharply. Record hot temperatures in the USA have exploded the grain markets, with Soybeans testing their all-time high of 16.60 per bushel last week, Corn back above $7.00/bu, and Wheat back above $8.00/bu. Pluto also threatens lives and loss of property, as the wildfires of Colorado have left many homeless, and the heat wave has also left many without electricity all over the country. Stock markets of the world continued their torrid rally that stated June 4 through Thursday, July 5. Many of these world indices from Asia through Europe and into the Americas have soared over 10%, which much of it following last week’s announcement that European political and banking leaders had come to an agreement to basically save Spain and the Euro. But, as suggested in previous columns, these agreements were being made not only under Uranus square Pluto, but also Jupiter square Neptune and both Venus and Saturn changing direction. There would be a different interpretation once the details were studied. And sure enough, everything reversed sharply by the end of this past week as the details became more understood. And there weren’t what parties thought at the time. Not only did stock indices around the world fall, but so too did the Euro currency. In fact, after testing the 1.2700 mark late the prior week, the Euro fell to a new two-year low by Friday, July 6, down to 1.2258. Along with it, Gold, and Silver gave back much of their gains, but still remain well above the lows of June 28. Best Trades of the Past Week Over the past few weekly columns, I have been inserting trading recommendations made to our subscribers in the prior week. Readers seem to like this type of information to just see how accurate these reports, based on our unique timing methods, have been in many cases. Last week was a holiday, plus Thursday was a travel day for me from Europe back to America, so there weren’t many new trades initiated. Perhaps the best trade however was in T-Notes. We were long T-notes from a couple of weeks back and the Weekly Report for the week starting July 2 stated, “Aggressive traders are long with a stop-loss on a close below weekly support. Cover and go short if prices are making a new weekly high (above 133/26) on Wednesday or Friday, with a stop-loss on a close above 135." Friday’s high was 134/13, so that was a nice trade from the long side and it remains to be seen how it will work from the short side. Short-Term Geocosmics Heliocentric Mercury continues in Sagittarius through July 17. This is a time when many financial markets can make very large price swings, especially in precious metals, crude oil, and foreign currencies. But the most dramatic part of this transit might be right at the end, and even a little beyond. On Friday, July 13, Uranus will turn retrograde, once again highlighting the abrupt and sudden changes characteristic of this planet. The very next day, Mercury will also turn retrograde, which is a lot like Uranus. This promises to be a time of brilliant futuristic ideas, but also strange occurrences in communications with unexpected disruptions. It can be a dangerous time too, for it is as if the earth is having a nervous breakdown (Uranus and Mercury have a correspondence to the nervous system, but in this case it can refer to an electrical grid). On the same day, July 14, the Sun will square Saturn, which can be a signature of delays or loss. But it doesn’t quite end there. The following week Mars will make a T-square (translation) to the Uranus-Pluto square (July 17-18). Mars will also trine Jupiter during that time. The combination becomes a signature of very large price swings in equity markets. My colleague Arch Crawford of “Crawford’s Perspectives” in Tucson, Arizona refers to the Mars-Uranus pairing as a “crash signature.” We’ve already seen dramatic price movements and reversals in financial markets happen suddenly whenever planets have touched off this Uranus-Pluto square in the past month. We should not be surprised if it starts up again later this week and into next week. If I were to choose one phrase that might best described the period of July 12-19, it would be “shock and awe.” As a trader, you have to be alert and nimble to capitalize on this set up. Expect big moves, but don’t expect them to last very long. And by all means, don’t be complacent – unless you enjoy the feeling of being suddenly awakened out of a deep slumber. Longer-Term Thoughts “Putting investment bankers in charge of high street banks is like putting mice in charge of cheese supplies.” – Vince Cable, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation, and Skills, UK, in a commentary written for The Observer Newspaper (London), July, 1, 2012 Here comes another Jupiter-Neptune financial scandal that could lead to enormous consequences related the Uranus-Pluto cleanup campaign. As I was researching the history of Jupiter in waxing square to Neptune for the second edition of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles,” I noticed something very timely. This aspect has a powerful correlation to violations of trust in government, banking and finances! Some of the recent cases include the Watergate scandal in 1974 that led to the resignation of USA President Richard Nixon, and the July 1999-March 2000 dot.com bubble burst amidst a plethora of accounting scandals that rocked Wall Street (i.e. WorldCom, Enron, etc.). So as I contemplated what financial scandal might arise with the current June 25, 2012 instance, it didn’t take long to materialize: Barclay’s and J.P. Morgan. Or, a Diamond right now may not be a girl’s best friend. On June 29, on page 18 of the International Herald Tribune, one headline was titled “Trading Losses at JPMorgan could reach $9 Billion,” and focused on Jamie Diamond – the bank’s president, who announced in May that the bank had lost $2 billion in botched bets on credit derivatives by a trader of the bank known as “The Whale” (an appropriate description consistent with Jupiter and Neptune, planets of large things and the sea creatures). Diamond was a little off about the size of the loss, which is about par for the course when the exaggerative qualities of Jupiter are involved with the wishful but out-of-touch-reality thinking qualities of Neptune. On the same page of that same newspaper on that same day was another headline: “Politicians Take Aim At Chief of Barclay’s”…. who just happens to be another Diamond, this time as in Robert Diamond, the aggressive American who headed Barclay’s Bank of London. It had just been announced that Barclay’s Bank was under scrutiny for “…attempting to influence benchmark interest rates… to bolster its own bottom line.” In the words of Vince Cable again in the London Observer a couple of days later, “The rot was widespread, the corruption endemic…The Libor scandal demonstrated deeply corrupt practices at the heart of Barclay Capital… Then there is the greed: the bonus-driven mis-selling of complex financial derivatives. Tens of thousands of small businesses were told they could have a bank loan only if they also bought products that neither they nor the bank salesmen understood. Many good firms are being bankrupted as a result… Faced with a moral quagmire of almost biblical proportions, what should be done?” What should be done? That’s easy for a Financial Astrologer to forecast. Just go to Pluto in Capricorn, whose solution is to purge, punish, and eliminate. But then Uranus in Aries steps in and in perfect unison the accused stand up defiantly and fight back (oh, don’t you love the bravado of Uranus in Aries!). Robert Diamond’s resignation was demanded by politicians in England. He defiantly refused to resign, standing his ground on – what? – principles? Well that was last week. This week he resigned after all, as did several other high ranking officials at Barclays. But not before threatening to expose the Bank of England’s complicity in the whole affair. Oh, it gets murkier and dirtier by the day. Here is another lesson: Pluto in Capricorn takes great delight in exposing the arrogance and ruthless selfishness of Uranus in Aries. And folks, there is more to come. If you consider that this is all happening on the just the first of seven passages of Uranus square Pluto (which will continue through March 17, 2015), you get an inkling of what’s coming up. And this is even before I get into this headline on July 4 in the International Herald Tribune: “French Police Raid Sarkozy’s Home and Offices.” Seems the former French president is also being accused of financial malfeasance in campaign funding. Now dear readers, you know I am not one to support more government regulations and the hiring of more regulators because I believe it can only depress creativity, innovation, and production from the private sector. At the same time I am very aware that greed and corruption at the top of the financial world can be – and has been - harmful and destructive to any economy. In fact, every economic and/or market collapse is almost always accompanied by scams, or greed and corruption run amok by big businesses, who are given to offering bribes in order to avoid regulatory penalties. But the same greed and corruption runs amok also when regulators become too powerful and demand those same bribes from business leaders, as many small businesses in any major city in the United States can attest to when dealing with local government officials. But the bottom line is simple in financial astrology. Uranus in Aries is representative of ruthlessness and greed in business, as well as the desire to be independent and successful. Pluto in Capricorn is the urge to expose corruption and wrongdoing, and punish those who violate laws for their own personal advancement. When the two come together we see bankers, businesses, and government officials often in collusion being exposed, leading to an outrage by the populace who demand immediate reforms and consequences. Welcome to Uranus in Aries square Pluto in Capricorn, Act One. As we can see, if we are not careful, this signature can lead to witch hunts and inquisitions (I think of Sarkozy). It is a time to be careful not to fall on anyone’s “enemies list.” More importantly, it is a time to expose anyone in power who would actually create an “enemies list.” At its best, Pluto in Capricorn is a time of empowering others, not destroying and ruining others just because they disagree with you.