GOLD TO FALL

Jimmy Rogers, this guy is almost always right in the gold market:

http://www.mining.co...-down-30-or-40/

Jimmy Rogers, this guy is almost always right in the gold market:

http://www.mining.co...-down-30-or-40/

i wonder how closely you have followed him? he admits to being a horrible market timer. its not what he is about
dharma

Jim Rogers??? You got to be kidding. Does this guy have any money left? He's been betting on hyperinflation, dollar defaulting, bonds crashing, like forever. He and Peter Schiff have to be in the record books for losing followers the most money. At least Schiff got it right on his own (like a broken clock); Rogers got his on the coattails of Soros; but again, Jimmie can't possible have much left of it any more. I wonder how far he can tour on a moped.

Rogers is interesting but seldom well timed. The policy moves which are highly probable are very likely to pressure gold prices upward. The game has just started , the low is likely 1530 before safety trades and currencies drive PM higher as a store of value. Seasonality is also coming on this quarter. Watch and wait before entry on a large scale. My point: stay alert Best, Islander

Jim Rogers??? You got to be kidding. Does this guy have any money left? He's been betting on hyperinflation, dollar defaulting, bonds crashing, like forever. He and Peter Schiff have to be in the record books for losing followers the most money. At least Schiff got it right on his own (like a broken clock); Rogers got his on the coattails of Soros; but again, Jimmie can't possible have much left of it any more. I wonder how far he can tour on a moped.

Says the guy who cannot define inflation except by government CPI and manipulated bond prices. Yah, thats brilliant dynamic thinking. You may recall there was no inflation in Argentina either, right up until the currency collapse. but hey, only fools believed the government data.

Anyway, a number of crazy hyperinflationists recognize that banking credit tightening has actually reduced the money supply temporarily and have made good money on falling commodity prices this year.... in addition to holding long term gold positions. But I dont expect a nuanced view like this to make it past the water you muddy everyday.

:Anyway, a number of crazy hyperinflationists recognize that banking credit tightening has actually reduced the money supply temporarily and have made good money on falling commodity prices this year: care to share names?

:Anyway, a number of crazy hyperinflationists recognize that banking credit tightening has actually reduced the money supply temporarily and have made good money on falling commodity prices this year:

care to share names?

Hugh Hendry, its a matter of public record. Several other managers from their scribblings on zero hedge, though I cannot confirm trades. however there are several huge china and copper bears writing almost daily. Personally, ive been shorting financials and oil and I am firmly in the hyperinflation camp. some of my views were influenced by conversations i've had with other inflationists who manage money on multiple time frames and have client risk if short term performance is poor (ie highly correlated broad market risks). So this is how I "know", though its somewhat annectdotal, admittedly.

Edited by CHAx, 10 July 2012 - 12:29 PM.

Rogers is interesting but seldom well timed.

The policy moves which are highly probable are very likely to pressure gold prices upward.

The game has just started , the low is likely 1530 before safety trades and currencies drive PM higher as a store of value.

Seasonality is also coming on this quarter. Watch and wait before entry on a large scale. My point: stay alert

Best, Islander

see: http://www.financial...lar-bull-market


A salesman yes, but long of gold

Edited by Islander, 10 July 2012 - 01:05 PM.

And dawn she goes. I really don't get it with perm bulls. Gold can fall by 40% and still be in a bull market. QE is OVER, deflation is coming is quick, as rate cuts will not be quick enough to have impact for maybe months.

Jim Rogers??? You got to be kidding. Does this guy have any money left? He's been betting on hyperinflation, dollar defaulting, bonds crashing, like forever. He and Peter Schiff have to be in the record books for losing followers the most money. At least Schiff got it right on his own (like a broken clock); Rogers got his on the coattails of Soros; but again, Jimmie can't possible have much left of it any more. I wonder how far he can tour on a moped.

Says the guy who cannot define inflation except by government CPI and manipulated bond prices. Yah, thats brilliant dynamic thinking. You may recall there was no inflation in Argentina either, right up until the currency collapse. but hey, only fools believed the government data.

Anyway, a number of crazy hyperinflationists recognize that banking credit tightening has actually reduced the money supply temporarily and have made good money on falling commodity prices this year.... in addition to holding long term gold positions. But I dont expect a nuanced view like this to make it past the water you muddy everyday.

The water I muddy everyday? My, my, you got a little bee in your bonnet?

And, a "nuance view"? Not if you're bringing up Argentina as example.

Argentina pegged its currency to the dollar - very silly for a country that on a relative basis has a much more open economy and a tiny, tiny “non-tradeables” domestic sector. Essentially, they put themselves on a gold standard except the gold was US dollars, and instead of digging their buffer stock out of the ground, they had to export to get theirs (i.e. US dollars) - that can prove fatal, and it did. On a relative basis, the US can give the finger to the rest of the world while Argentina was subject to every little hick-up in trade which began to slow in the 1990s. Then they mainlined the “heroin” by taking on debt IN A FOREIGN CURRENCY, i.e. the US dollar. You gotta love the IMF! Well, from there, you know the rest.

What you apparently haven't grasp is that the US doesn't peg its currency to anything, not even gold, and as many wet dreams Ron Paul has about it, it’s not ever going to. The entire US govt debt is owed in the currency it issues - as the retired (verb, not adjective) president of the S&P Credit Agency now knows (sad really) that means it can never default, i.e. no "currency collapse" for the US, sorry.

As for CPI data, would you care to provide an alternative data source that has anything near the extensiveness, robustness and most importantly, openness? There is MIT's Billion Prices Index that covers goods (not services) only - pretty robust but it basically correlates with the CPI. But since you obviously got something better, are you willing to share? Just note, I'm not interested in the usual Austrian pull-it-out-of-your-arse “analysis.”

Manipulated bond prices? If you're talking govt bonds, and 80% of the value of commercial paper (because that's about what the general interest rate environment dictates), is there any prices that aren't manipulated? You do know that govt bonds are just a service provided to savers by the govt, right? Why shouldn't the govt manipulate them?

It's good for you that some hyperinflationisties have finally discovered debt deflation and saved you some money. I suspect at some point, however, I will be taking theirs and your money anyway. I have not only grown quite good at it, but actually rather fond of taking money from the ideologically-blinded - just a matter of time and timing.

Edited by salsabob, 10 July 2012 - 04:03 PM.