What I see at the moment

The indexes have been choppy and sluggish and determined to scramble the thinking of most everyone but this market has been BULLISH since early June and still is. I don't know why anyone except the most adept counter-trend traders would even try to short against a NYMO/NYSI advance.

Everything I have is on a buy and not particularly overbought. Forty-three of my nifty-fifty stocks are on buys (there were 42 on sells when this bounce began four days ago) but only 14 are overbought (it would not be unusual for 30 of them to get there before the bounce ends). I see the leveraged ETFs I follow are all up fairly strongly in after-hours so if that holds maybe we get to overbought tomorrow.

My long-side day-trader did surge to a level today that's often a sign the advance will stall and go sideways to down in the very short term. That's the only hope I have for the bears but considering that it's gone sideways to down six out the of last seven times that's occurred that's not a bad hope to have.

Good luck and good trading.

P.S.

And take a look at the weekly VIX grinding slowly, relentlessly toward 15. If it goes through there...

THE VIX

For myself, the issue here isn't NYMO, but the volume MCO's.-which aren't confirming. Another issue being the MCO's position under 50.For myself, the'd need to be over there to signal this move as more than a big bounce. That said, I've been trading only on the long side, with the trend. If we can get through 1380 cash, I think a trip to my 1393 target is probably in order. If nothing changes on the Volume MCO-I'll look to short there. Thanks for your fine takes, and good trading to you.

For myself, the issue here isn't NYMO, but the volume MCO's.-which aren't confirming. Another issue being the MCO's position under 50.For myself, the'd need to be over there to signal this move as more than a big bounce. That said, I've been trading only on the long side, with the trend. If we can get through 1380 cash, I think a trip to my 1393 target is probably in order. If nothing changes on the Volume MCO-I'll look to short there.

Thanks for your fine takes, and good trading to you.

Yes, there is something not quite right on Wall at the moment (I mean besides the usual corruption, raping of the taxpayer and pillaging of the American dream). Although we have moved higher today so far on the Naz, the NYMO and NAMO are both lagging. Yesterday, tech bounced (QCOM and IBM have added more today) and when the laggards finally run that's often the beginning of the end. Nine out my top ten stocks are currently negative on this NYMO swing (although luckily MLNX is saving the basket).

Just a few signs of weakness. To go along with yours. Thanks for the comments on the volume MCO's particularly.

Still, everything I have is still on a buy, end of the day (that would change of course if the NYMO stays down the rest of the day), and until there's an intraday sell, it's more likely my signs of weakness may go away before this day is done.

Good luck and good trading.

Well, the signs of weakness Thursday took over on Friday. The NYMO, which was having an anemic bounce while the indexes challenged their recent highs, clicked down on Thursday (as noted might happen above). And that NYMO turn-down was on a day with the VIX down, the Naz, Dow, and SPX all up, giving a NYMO sell that followed through on the indexes on Friday (this is called breadth leading price...I kid you not ). The Russell has been lagging this entire swing and was down Thursday. In addition, in my nifty-fifty stocks, the 43 on buys on Wednesday moved down to 35 on buys on Thursday, a nifty-fifty shift to weakness that resulted in 41 of the 50 stocks being flat to down on Friday (but they have not dropped enough to be oversold as a group). So what now? If the market follows through, it will turn down the NYSI and we all know what a declining NYSI means (many who have been trying to short while it was advancing will now be trying to go long...just kidding). Seriously, unless that's corrected quickly, the bears will have their day. However it seems a little early still for that. If this is a typical McClellan cycle there's the possibility of one more run to the upside, either right here at the MCO zero line or after a plunge that gets oversold. A plunge and a rally from oversold (which, by the way, I would prefer) could carry to August. And if that rally happens to put in a NYMO high below a high below the zero line, that will be a true honey pot for the bears. After all that? Well, after all that we'll just have to see how things are after all that. Good luck and good trading and have a good weekend.

A bounce for NYMO from the zero line is an appropriate technical expectation. Nice post Diogenes. Doc