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"W" bottom on UNG almost a double now


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 10:24 AM

Locally there has been a big push for CNG vehicles including rebates from the state and the gas company (paid for by an increase in the price of CNG).
A couple of new filling stations have been added.
They are also rebating home filling stations which seem like a great solution.
I bid on a CNG vehicle on Ebay...and didn't get it.

http://stockcharts.c...43056868015.png

#2 Macro Speculator

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Posted 23 July 2012 - 02:00 PM

Locally there has been a big push for CNG vehicles including rebates from the state and the gas company (paid for by an increase in the price of CNG).
A couple of new filling stations have been added.
They are also rebating home filling stations which seem like a great solution.
I bid on a CNG vehicle on Ebay...and didn't get it.

http://stockcharts.c...43056868015.png


1) Even with coal retirements, there is still plenty of coal plant capacity to soak up electricity demand which is barely growing.
2) Natural gas for transportation makes up a tiny fraction of demand so (like 0.1%) so near term these changes won't matter.
3) Inventories are incredibly high right now.


If I had to guess, I'd say the bottom for natural gas will come in a few months. Longer term, I think you're right, especially because of LNG exports.
But near term, I wouldn't buy right here...the upside is probably capped, because many drillers can hit the market the minute prices rise a bit more.

I think the better trade is ignore natural gas for a while, hope the price collapses, and then buy futures out around 2015-16. That way, we avoid the
issues that these etfs have and also avoid any possible price collapse if natural gas storage space hits capacity this fall.