Adding short ES 1347

I opened a small position earlier. Now that we've reached the falling moving averages on the hourly chart, this should be a good entry point for a full size position. I expect another gap down tomorrow. 1353 is upper limit of what this bounce should be able to accomplish.. 10 point stop.

Carefull with the futures gap, they might try to fill it. THEY like to gap the cash market and leave it, but do not like being surprized on the futures open. Other than that I'm neutral here until more information comes in. Unless the market stops moving, I'm willing to hold short for 2-3 weeks.

I think the realization is finally coming that a large sovereign default is unavoidable. And possibly even more then one. Germans have $#@%^&$&ed it up long enough. Spain is now desperate. 10 large italian cities including Milan and Napoli are also in need of a bailout. And of course there is always good ol' Greece. German court isn't scheduled to vote on the legality of the latest bailout package until early September. German population already has a massive case of bailout fatigue as measured by countless polls. I think its time to let someone go. And that realization might be just what the market needs for a nice and shiny brand new downtrend.

Carefull with the futures gap, they might try to fill it. THEY like to gap the cash market and leave it, but do not like
being surprized on the futures open.

Other than that I'm neutral here until more information comes in. Unless the market stops moving, I'm willing to hold
short for 2-3 weeks.

I think today was a predicatable reaction.. "OMG, its oversold" ... but I'm looking more for a last year July August scenario here. "The moment of Truth".

Dax has plummeted almost 3% today. We have some catching u to do.

Also Italy and Spain banned short selling today. This is never good news.

Edited by ogm, 23 July 2012 - 03:40 PM.

AAPL earnings tomorrow after the close. This should mark the end of the earnings season. So that trading event will be out of the way too. There is a lot of vacuum between now and the next Fed meeting.

Carefull with the futures gap, they might try to fill it. THEY like to gap the cash market and leave it, but do not like
being surprized on the futures open.

The chances of a complete fill are pretty poor - in the short term.

Edited by orange, 23 July 2012 - 03:57 PM.

Moody's has just cut outlook for Germany and Netherlands to negative. Cost futures another couple points. TXN gave a crappy forecast too. So for now the gap down is on track.

Moody's has just cut outlook for Germany and Netherlands to negative. Cost futures another couple points. TXN gave a crappy forecast too.

So for now the gap down is on track.

Any gap down tomorrow is going to get bought. We need one more rally attempt to break our channel bottom trendline.

Moody's has just cut outlook for Germany and Netherlands to negative. Cost futures another couple points. TXN gave a crappy forecast too.

So for now the gap down is on track.

Any gap down tomorrow is going to get bought. We need one more rally attempt to break our channel bottom trendline.

I'm not so sure it will be bought. Both issues and volume summations turned back down. And volume summation is under the 0 line, making new lows.

The previous rally had really awful internals.

They bought todays gap down, and its just about all gone in after hours now.

VIX finally getting some traction too.

This market is rapidly running out of steam.

Edited by ogm, 23 July 2012 - 05:29 PM.

Sell off looks pitiful, looks like run of the mill. Bounced off channel support, now nothing. Most likely they go after the gap tonight.

Edited by CLK, 23 July 2012 - 07:37 PM.