added 1 PS at ES1328.5

also has 1 PS (LT) from 1363....via SSO..

You like living dangerously Will be interesting to see if this trade plays out for you. Your system has proved me wrong quite a few times lately. Summations broken, trendlines broken, supports broken, moving averages broken. Rallies are getting sold. Internals weak, after large negative divergences. I'm sticking with selling rallies. Can't handle the excitement of catching the falling knives.

Edited by ogm, 24 July 2012 - 11:18 AM.

Tell me your secret !

What do you see that I don't see ?

There is a small positive div in price, there is a small div in internals ( nothing spectacular ), and there is this shaky light blue trendline, which is a stretch.

Momentum heavily down, trendline from June is finally broken, and price acting like its in a downtrend.

With all respect we may be witnessing the flaw in Andrion's system that has appeared so good in recent weeks. Unless i missed something he has a 35 pt drawdown on 1 PS from 1363. Most of his winners appear to average 5-6 pts. That one loss eats up a lot of winners. Say he stopped out here....35 pts...that could eat up 6 winners. So you need 7 winners out of 8 to be profitable or 88 % win/loss. It certainly feels like he is running about 90% win/loss but who knows over the long term. I am also very familiar with systems that only sell out into strength and have the tail risk of a big loss. Those can work for a long long time and then the tail risk trade comes along and sets everything back. I have not tracked his trades exactly and if his avg win is larger than that i may be off. SL

just watch.. i will win

With all respect we may be witnessing the flaw in Andrion's system that has appeared so good in recent weeks. Unless i missed something
he has a 35 pt drawdown on 1 PS from 1363. Most of his winners appear to average 5-6 pts. That one loss eats up a lot of winners. Say
he stopped out here....35 pts...that could eat up 6 winners. So you need 7 winners out of 8 to be profitable or 88 % win/loss. It certainly
feels like he is running about 90% win/loss but who knows over the long term. I am also very familiar with systems that only sell out into
strength and have the tail risk of a big loss. Those can work for a long long time and then the tail risk trade comes along and sets everything
back. I have not tracked his trades exactly and if his avg win is larger than that i may be off.

SL

Exactly. Probably stochastics based, although regardless he's using oscillators, which are good until they're not.

Edited by IndexTrader, 24 July 2012 - 01:42 PM.

With all respect we may be witnessing the flaw in Andrion's system that has appeared so good in recent weeks. Unless i missed something
he has a 35 pt drawdown on 1 PS from 1363. Most of his winners appear to average 5-6 pts. That one loss eats up a lot of winners. Say
he stopped out here....35 pts...that could eat up 6 winners. So you need 7 winners out of 8 to be profitable or 88 % win/loss. It certainly
feels like he is running about 90% win/loss but who knows over the long term. I am also very familiar with systems that only sell out into
strength and have the tail risk of a big loss. Those can work for a long long time and then the tail risk trade comes along and sets everything
back. I have not tracked his trades exactly and if his avg win is larger than that i may be off.

SL

It reminds me of my past when I was refusing to take a loss

With all respect we may be witnessing the flaw in Andrion's system that has appeared so good in recent weeks. Unless i missed something
he has a 35 pt drawdown on 1 PS from 1363. Most of his winners appear to average 5-6 pts. That one loss eats up a lot of winners. Say
he stopped out here....35 pts...that could eat up 6 winners. So you need 7 winners out of 8 to be profitable or 88 % win/loss. It certainly
feels like he is running about 90% win/loss but who knows over the long term. I am also very familiar with systems that only sell out into
strength and have the tail risk of a big loss. Those can work for a long long time and then the tail risk trade comes along and sets everything
back. I have not tracked his trades exactly and if his avg win is larger than that i may be off.

SL

Exactly. Probably stochastics based, although regardless he's using oscillators, which are good until they're not.

It need not be Stochastics or Oscillators.

What andiron does is mean reversion trades. You could use Moving average envelopes, Standard deviation bands, Fib Exhaustion zones, Elder's greater fools zone and many other methods to identify exhaustion zones and take a partial position. You keep adding as the price moves against you in the extreme zone. If the mean reversion happens as it does more then 70%of the time, you take in small quick profits. If the mean reversion does not happen and you get trapped in a strong trend, we know how it ends. These kind of systems are purely counter-trend and will invariably get you long on days like Oct 19, 1987 or the days leading to it. Yes, in the end, it's all about those fat tails !!

howdy Nav, long time no see..what gives? 1987! fat tails!!...what are the chances of one getting hit on the road? Amigo, life -after all- is all a matter of taking calculated risks..

Edited by andiron, 24 July 2012 - 09:21 PM.

howdy Nav, long time no see..what gives?

andiron,

I am doing well. I reckon your trading is going well too.

Hourly is on a downtrend. But daily is still on an uptrend until 1325 breaks. Keep an eye on 1325 (make or break zone for the uptrend)

1987! fat tails!!...what are the chances of one getting hit on the road?

Amigo, life -after all- is all a matter of taking calculated risks..

Yeah, it all boils down to risk management. You can't jaywalk on a freeway and get away with it everytime.

Use stops and trade safe. Good luck buddy !

Edited by NAV, 24 July 2012 - 09:30 PM.