Edited by ogm, 25 July 2012 - 06:58 AM.
Short NQ 2541
Started by
ogm
, Jul 25 2012 06:50 AM
22 replies to this topic
#1
ogm
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Posted 25 July 2012 - 06:50 AM
This overnight bounce looks like a good entry point. Near the falling moving averages.
1335, is probably a good entry point for ES too.
This whole overnight bounce is based on "Someone said something in Europe". I have serious doubts that it has any staying power beyond the open.
If this market is going to turn up again it will need to do some basing first.
And NQs are the weakest, and AAPL should be a big drag for many days now, I don't really see it bouncing beyond a few daytraders trying to buy an "OMG, its oversold" gap down.
#2
einscodek
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Posted 25 July 2012 - 07:18 AM
My best count has 5 waves down so be watchful of a rebound to 1348 min
Also, I am open to a lower prob alternative count which challenges all time highs which puts these minor moves in perspective
Best.
#3
ogm
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Posted 25 July 2012 - 07:52 AM
Could be. I'm no longer surprized with anything in this "Someone in Europe said something" market.
My guess is there are a lot of shorts from yesterday who will get squeezed in the morning, and then the market will start settling back down.
There is too much technical damage on the charts to just jump up and run to the top. But then again, who knows.
1340 should be strong resistance. We spent a lot of time there last coupledays, before the market broke down. Climbing back above it with moving averages broken down won't be easy.
Edited by ogm, 25 July 2012 - 07:54 AM.
#4
einscodek
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Posted 25 July 2012 - 07:59 AM
Would have felt much better had 1326 been reached yesterday
Potential to bounce is still there.. look at the futures currently +10 on the SP
#5
ogm
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Posted 25 July 2012 - 08:01 AM
Would have felt much better had 1326 been reached yesterday
Potential to bounce is still there.. look at the futures currently +10 on the SP
Yeah, thats the tricky part. Because we closed regular session at 1335... but then we had this overnight AAPL whispaw, so cvomparing to that the futures are only up 3. But looks like + 10 ... scary
#6
Geomean
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Posted 25 July 2012 - 08:18 AM
Hourlies on the cash and the futures in conflict at this point. If there is a little more work to the downside this am they could align.
Opportunity knocks on your door every day-answer it.
#7
einscodek
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Posted 25 July 2012 - 08:29 AM
Will be looking for any weakness in the AM.. Europe already looks tentative
#8
ogm
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Posted 25 July 2012 - 08:50 AM
Yes, I clearly could've waited for a better entry. I always underestimate these cult stocks, and the AAPL "oversold" bounce was a bit stronger then I thought.
Still, ES already rolling over, and NQ should weaken too. AAPL still not exactly in a rally mode.
My thesis still remains.. shorting rallies in what I see as a downtrend on 60 min with no internals support ( broken summations) on daily.
Edited by ogm, 25 July 2012 - 08:52 AM.
#10
ogm
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Posted 25 July 2012 - 09:08 AM
Both price and internals are crumbling fast now. This may get interesting by the close. I think they already got as much mileage out of "Someone in Europe has said something " as they can for today.
They'll probably dick around again after Europe closes, but I really only want to see the US close.
