We play a game of probabilities

The market breathes in and out. Our job is to measure the breathes it takes

Edited by Chilidawgz, 25 July 2012 - 01:19 PM.

Nice trade you have going by the way Childawz. I don't know what your entry/exit are but so far market has given you a max excursion of 10 pts from the time of your post with a draw down of less than 8! I agree as well its all about probabilities. But its deeper than that. In order to truly know the probabilities you have to know the context your in which is what separates the best from the best imo. And there are ways to define context other than trend, momentum, etc

Jesse Livermore said one great thing he learned was to stay the long term direction, IYB often states that as well. I tried that but over years found I could not stomach the short term draw downs even if I had the longer term trend correct. My trades run one plus days to maybe 5 or 7, depends on what the market is giving. That said, I do like to know what the intermediate trend is (context). Looks like the market is turning down but I will use that only as a heads up. I will trade both long and short no matter what the intermediate trend:

(PS I do not always have a trade with my system, I need to wait until the "probability" shows itself in the indicators I use)

Edited by Chilidawgz, 25 July 2012 - 01:59 PM.

I primarily trade the Russell 2000, so I watch this as well as other things for longer term:

Edited by Chilidawgz, 25 July 2012 - 02:08 PM.

Russell was very weak today again. Internals just above breakeven. Price action and volume non existant. Beyond the open that was sold fast, it seemed like it was just marking time till the end of the day.

http://stockcharts.c...43258098095.png