Strategy Update

It has been about 5 months since I have posted. Nothing has changed. I am still short 50+ stocks although the list is different. The approach of weeding out stocks which show strength and replacing them with weaker ones is still working out pretty good. I took some hits in January and February and was down as much as 35% for the year at one time but am back to being up about up 2% as of yesterday. Currently I am using technical analysis for nothing other than to track downtrends. For me using chart patterns and such provides no advantage when the market is dominated by black boxes and manipulators. In my opinion, the world’s capital markets have been all but destroyed and the bottom will drop out either suddenly or gradually. Since all assets are vulnerable, it makes sense to me to do the opposite of owning assets, which is being short. All this being said, when the collapse comes, it will be the opportunity of the lifetime to go long. I am not doing anything sophisticated. If anyone else knows of a stock I need to be short, I would appreciate hearing about it. ACI AIR AMED ANF ANR APKT APOL ATK AVY BBY BCS CETV CHKE CS CSC DCO DGIT DRIV EV FCS FCX FII FLIR GLW GMCR HES IDT IPGP JEF KELYA KND LAZ LEA LLND LM LUK MAN MS NIHD NVDA PBI PGR PTNR SAI SCHN SFLY SKM SPLS SUP SYMC TRI TXI X

Edited by James Quillian, 25 July 2012 - 02:50 PM.

It has been about 5 months since I have posted. Nothing has changed. I am still short 50+ stocks although the list is different. The approach of weeding out stocks which show strength and replacing them with weaker ones is still working out pretty good. I took some hits in January and February and was down as much as 35% for the year at one time but am back to being up about up 2% as of yesterday. Currently I am using technical analysis for nothing other than to track downtrends. For me using chart patterns and such provides no advantage when the market is dominated by black boxes and manipulators. In my opinion, the world’s capital markets have been all but destroyed and the bottom will drop out either suddenly or gradually. Since all assets are vulnerable, it makes sense to me to do the opposite of owning assets, which is being short. All this being said, when the collapse comes, it will be the opportunity of the lifetime to go long. I am not doing anything sophisticated. If anyone else knows of a stock I need to be short, I would appreciate hearing about it.

ACI AIR AMED ANF ANR APKT APOL ATK AVY BBY BCS CETV CHKE CS CSC DCO DGIT DRIV EV FCS FCX FII FLIR GLW GMCR HES IDT IPGP JEF KELYA KND LAZ LEA LLND LM LUK MAN MS NIHD NVDA PBI PGR PTNR SAI SCHN SFLY SKM SPLS SUP SYMC TRI TXI X

Question, I see you are pressing on coal stocks like ACI and ANR which are down 90-95% from their peaks? Do you think they are going bankrupt? If not, wouldn't it be time to slowly start accumulating those types of names for the longer term? After all, the bottom has already fallen out of that sector? Just curious as to what you think on those names specifically.

Congrats on ACI and ANR. I just covered a short in BTU but that's because I'm short term.

As for coal's future, there is this:

Coal is going bust

Take a deep breath, we're clearing the air.

Good luck with the rest of your list.

It has been about 5 months since I have posted. Nothing has changed. I am still short 50+ stocks although the list is different. The approach of weeding out stocks which show strength and replacing them with weaker ones is still working out pretty good. I took some hits in January and February and was down as much as 35% for the year at one time but am back to being up about up 2% as of yesterday. Currently I am using technical analysis for nothing other than to track downtrends. For me using chart patterns and such provides no advantage when the market is dominated by black boxes and manipulators. In my opinion, the world’s capital markets have been all but destroyed and the bottom will drop out either suddenly or gradually. Since all assets are vulnerable, it makes sense to me to do the opposite of owning assets, which is being short. All this being said, when the collapse comes, it will be the opportunity of the lifetime to go long. I am not doing anything sophisticated. If anyone else knows of a stock I need to be short, I would appreciate hearing about it.

ACI AIR AMED ANF ANR APKT APOL ATK AVY BBY BCS CETV CHKE CS CSC DCO DGIT DRIV EV FCS FCX FII FLIR GLW GMCR HES IDT IPGP JEF KELYA KND LAZ LEA LLND LM LUK MAN MS NIHD NVDA PBI PGR PTNR SAI SCHN SFLY SKM SPLS SUP SYMC TRI TXI X

And thanks for the list.

I just ran through them through my technical indicators, the NYMO and particularly the NYSI on the longer term. With your focus on shorting, there's a lot of stocks on the list that truly are lessons in "bears make money." I mostly focus on the long side in stock trading but your list has added to my appreciation of the NYSI as a short signal. Back in February the NYSI rolled over but the indexes kept going higher which was a rare event and rather confusing but going through your list I see an awful lot of stocks were dying under the surface on that NYSI decline. Very instructive.

I don't know when you shorted this but I particularly liked this example from your list (a big winner today alone):

http://stockcharts.c...43250275204.png

Well done.

It has been about 5 months since I have posted. Nothing has changed. I am still short 50+ stocks although the list is different. The approach of weeding out stocks which show strength and replacing them with weaker ones is still working out pretty good. I took some hits in January and February and was down as much as 35% for the year at one time but am back to being up about up 2% as of yesterday. Currently I am using technical analysis for nothing other than to track downtrends. For me using chart patterns and such provides no advantage when the market is dominated by black boxes and manipulators. In my opinion, the world’s capital markets have been all but destroyed and the bottom will drop out either suddenly or gradually. Since all assets are vulnerable, it makes sense to me to do the opposite of owning assets, which is being short. All this being said, when the collapse comes, it will be the opportunity of the lifetime to go long. I am not doing anything sophisticated. If anyone else knows of a stock I need to be short, I would appreciate hearing about it.

ACI AIR AMED ANF ANR APKT APOL ATK AVY BBY BCS CETV CHKE CS CSC DCO DGIT DRIV EV FCS FCX FII FLIR GLW GMCR HES IDT IPGP JEF KELYA KND LAZ LEA LLND LM LUK MAN MS NIHD NVDA PBI PGR PTNR SAI SCHN SFLY SKM SPLS SUP SYMC TRI TXI X

Question, I see you are pressing on coal stocks like ACI and ANR which are down 90-95% from their peaks? Do you think they are going bankrupt? If not, wouldn't it be time to slowly start accumulating those types of names for the longer term? After all, the bottom has already fallen out of that sector? Just curious as to what you think on those names specifically.

I have no idea if they are going bankrupt. They are still going down and that is all that matters to me. I don't plan on doing any bottom fishing anytime soon. When its time to buy, the first stocks aI will look at will be the ones which have held above long term trendlines. A lot of these stocks, I don't even know what business they are in.

It has been about 5 months since I have posted. Nothing has changed. I am still short 50+ stocks although the list is different. The approach of weeding out stocks which show strength and replacing them with weaker ones is still working out pretty good. I took some hits in January and February and was down as much as 35% for the year at one time but am back to being up about up 2% as of yesterday. Currently I am using technical analysis for nothing other than to track downtrends. For me using chart patterns and such provides no advantage when the market is dominated by black boxes and manipulators. In my opinion, the world’s capital markets have been all but destroyed and the bottom will drop out either suddenly or gradually. Since all assets are vulnerable, it makes sense to me to do the opposite of owning assets, which is being short. All this being said, when the collapse comes, it will be the opportunity of the lifetime to go long. I am not doing anything sophisticated. If anyone else knows of a stock I need to be short, I would appreciate hearing about it.

ACI AIR AMED ANF ANR APKT APOL ATK AVY BBY BCS CETV CHKE CS CSC DCO DGIT DRIV EV FCS FCX FII FLIR GLW GMCR HES IDT IPGP JEF KELYA KND LAZ LEA LLND LM LUK MAN MS NIHD NVDA PBI PGR PTNR SAI SCHN SFLY SKM SPLS SUP SYMC TRI TXI X

And thanks for the list.

I just ran through them through my technical indicators, the NYMO and particularly the NYSI on the longer term. With your focus on shorting, there's a lot of stocks on the list that truly are lessons in "bears make money." I mostly focus on the long side in stock trading but your list has added to my appreciation of the NYSI as a short signal. Back in February the NYSI rolled over but the indexes kept going higher which was a rare event and rather confusing but going through your list I see an awful lot of stocks were dying under the surface on that NYSI decline. Very instructive.

I don't know when you shorted this but I particularly liked this example from your list (a big winner today alone):

http://stockcharts.c...43250275204.png

Well done.

I shorted NIHD back in November at $24.01. Unfortunately, they don't all work out this well. I have taken a lot of short term losses along the way that I have to subtract from stocks like NIHD. I really am happy anytime I end the year with any kind of a profit.