TM,
Yes I know where your coming from. My thoughts though run the line that, we were going to rally as the setup was there technically, and it was bound to happen. Actually, my post on the 17th was before the decline into this weeks low and reversal. I just see this upward sideways action since June as a Wave 2 up in a ABCDEFGHIJ??????????? pattern, LOL! You know what I mean, just a series of higher highs and higher lows in this 2 month BS move. Once the completes to the upside on this weak momentum move as my indicators suggest, we should get the mother of all declines, IMHO. I am of the ilk that the FED, or the "Powers That Be", can control somewhat the very short term market moves, but in the bigger picture, the markets are bigger and smarter than the FED. Once the markets figure out that the FED can't save the economy from failing, there will be H_ll to Pay! We just can't pin point the exact day, but the time for it to happen is getting shorter and shorter. One of these tops soon will be the end of the market IMO, and then I think the decline will make 2007-2008 a walk in the park!
If I may, I think we will soon see a decline in the NDX to the weekly 50 SMA near 2000 or a drop of 700 NDX points followed by a rally to 2450. Then I think we can see a bigger decline in 2013 that will test NDX 1700 or below by late 2013 or 2014. I know that's a long time off, but it's my FF thoughts at this time.
Short term I still think the NDX could test 2700 but I see that area as the end for the present rally.
At that point, the next level down could last maybe 10 weeks and then reverse back up into the election and maybe into the first of the year. Then it should get ugly again!
Now, this isn't the gospel, so please don't hold me to it! Alan
"But, unless someone can show me that he had made a super 50-point rally call on or before Wednesday, it's safe to assume NO technicians had seen this coming."
http://www.traders-t...howtopic=140861
http://www.traders-t...howtopic=140956
Don't think I need to say much more here. I said INDU 13100, actually hit a high of 13117.74, SPX 1390 and hit 1389.19 and both the COMPQ and NDX lagging a bit.
Have a great weekend! Alan
Alan, I understand your general directional calls that have been in place for a while, but I'm talking specifically about this big 50-point turnaround of the past two days.
For an example, when I get a technical signal of a probable BP Alert from my trading system, I would post it here, usually the night before, to let everyone know there's such probable and imminent occurrence of at least a 1% move. For another example, the very next trading day after I had posted my 7/19/12 "SPY After Hour" alert, the SPX closed down 1%. That's another TECHNICAL event triggered by a technical signal.
Once again, I'm not talking about the overall and general market direction calls. Unless someone can show me that he had seen this big turnaround rally of the past two days coming specifically (i.e. Big Rally Alert) on Wednesday, I'll continue to maintain that NO technicians had seen this super rally coming. And, there's nothing wrong with that because this is a fundamental event, driven by a central banker's promise to perform. It's as simple as that.
