Closed Gold and Platinum metal positions.

The sell off in PMs is getting some headway from what appears to be recognition that China is not going to avoid a hard correction, especially in commodities and imports. Australasia battening down the hatches.

Still holding miners in gold and silver. IF the Fed holds out on QE a lot of the pressure comes off PM for a time: reentry probable.

Gold futures up on weakness in USD. Not ready to buy, the trade is crowded for now. I see no deflation as yet, none of the BLS data supports the prior discussion on the Board.

Note TLT and Nearby gold contract correlation? Interesting is it not?


http://www.barchart....bcdb1671740.png


Best, Islander

Your link does not work. Yes I see the Australian government has come out and said the commodity bull market is over, well maybe, I have a strong trend on gasoline for a high in 2015 and also for gold to peak in 2016-17.

I am confused, if you see no deflation then you see inflation which should move gold up - yes?


Russ

The sell off in PMs is getting some headway from what appears to be recognition that China is not going to avoid a hard correction, especially in commodities and imports. Australasia battening down the hatches.

Still holding miners in gold and silver. IF the Fed holds out on QE a lot of the pressure comes off PM for a time: reentry probable.

Gold futures up on weakness in USD. Not ready to buy, the trade is crowded for now. I see no deflation as yet, none of the BLS data supports the prior discussion on the Board.

Note TLT and Nearby gold contract correlation? Interesting is it not?


http://www.barchart....bcdb1671740.png


Best, Islander

I forgot to mention that I also have a strong trend for the Shanghai stock index SSEC to go up into the autumn of 2014.

No, I see neither inflation, nor deflation; gold is likely moving on QE threats from US Fed, China and ECB. That portends inflationary pressure in the future, but not today or tomorrow or next month. Maybe never, since our monetary problems may be insurmountable for even the Fed.

Today the TL from the past $gold highs was broken on the up side, break out of gold. My experience has been when this trend line is touched the gold market soon corrects.

Your work is very long range and I enjoy hearing, but I am not persuaded that it is inevitable. Sorry for my bum link. Here is another which is not mine but better. Hope it works for you.

http://news-media.ba...4/vxdPMWGuU.gif

Islander

The infamous Martin Armstrong has written on some of his internet posts that we can expect the deflationary wave (from the 2008 debacle) to end in the near future, then currency devaluations are going to fuel inflation. He is looking for 5,000-10,000 for gold by 2017 and oil will be several hundred a barrel by then. As was said by money-talks.net / cknw.com interviewer and commentator Michael Campbell..."Armstrong is different than most Economists - he is usually right". Anyway, my work agrees with Armstrong: things are going to inflate going into his pi cycle peak of 2015.75, then 2016 will be..."the year from hell", as he said. Gold will peak as confidence is lost in Japan, Europe and the USA.

The infamous Martin Armstrong has written on some of his internet posts that we can expect the deflationary wave (from the 2008 debacle) to end in the near future, then currency devaluations are going to fuel inflation. He is looking for 5,000-10,000 for gold by 2017 and oil will be several hundred a barrel by then. As was said by money-talks.net / cknw.com interviewer and commentator Michael Campbell..."Armstrong is different than most Economists - he is usually right".

Anyway, my work agrees with Armstrong: things are going to inflate going into his pi cycle peak of 2015.75, then 2016 will be..."the year from hell", as he said. Gold will peak as confidence is lost in Japan, Europe and the USA.

The relationship has been US$ down, stocks up. I think deflation has a ways to go. The price of oil has been draining the pockets of everyone. Rents are up. Unemployment is high and probably will be going higher. The US$ is the safe haven. So I do not see the inflation pressure. Gold will probably peak in 2021ish and decline as a VAT is instituted in the USA to deal with the debt. The economic recovery will be tepid for many years - until tepid feels like the good times.

Edited by Dex, 23 August 2012 - 09:24 PM.

Gann Global is projecting the CRB will bottom towards the end of this year, that is in agreement with my forecast for CRB for a low by Dec/Jan this winter. Agree the US dollar is the safe haven for now, the best looking of the three ugly sisters...japan, europe and usa. As Armstrong has written the US being the core economy of the world will be the last to go down. I doubt very much a VAT for the usa is going to be enough to save it, the system will have imploded before they do that, the train will have crashed at the end of the track, putting it back together will not be easy. They are probably going to have to create new currencies after a lot of zeros are wiped off the balance sheets. Armstrong has also said that an attempt to resurrect the greatness of the usa will come much later, something like 2080, he uses his pi cycle model in part to determine these dates. What is your 2021 gold peak date based on? Dex Wrote: [/quote]The relationship has been US$ down, stocks up. I think deflation has a ways to go. The price of oil has been draining the pockets of everyone. Rents are up. Unemployment is high and probably will be going higher. The US$ is the safe haven. So I do not see the inflation pressure. Gold will probably peak in 2021ish and decline as a VAT is instituted in the USA to deal with the debt. The economic recovery will be tepid for many years - until tepid feels like the good times[/quote]

Edited by Russ, 23 August 2012 - 11:44 PM.

The sell off in PMs is getting some headway from what appears to be recognition that China is not going to avoid a hard correction, especially in commodities and imports. Australasia battening down the hatches.

Still holding miners in gold and silver. IF the Fed holds out on QE a lot of the pressure comes off PM for a time: reentry probable.

Gold futures up on weakness in USD. Not ready to buy, the trade is crowded for now. I see no deflation as yet, none of the BLS data supports the prior discussion on the Board.

Note TLT and Nearby gold contract correlation? Interesting is it not?


http://www.barchart....bcdb1671740.png


Best, Islander

Islander,
Read the book "Currency Wars" by James Rickards..very insightful....just heard on CNBC this morning that the republicans if they get in plan on looking into a committee to review to see if we can go back on a gold standard...yea, they're worry alright...But I agree there will be corrections.
Thanks for you posts
TM

folks for me its enough to look @ the present. and i agree w/russ 2016 will be the top. and the end of this present system. then comes the regaining of confidence. keep in mind that when they introduced the continental, it failed. w/o a viable currency control over the masses is lost. dharma