IAU

How would you interpret a day like today on IAU where volume was astronomical through the roof but price range rather normal and resistance (where price more or less failed the past three days) clearly held? I can see a long up candle or a long down candle with massive volume being predictive of more up or down to come. But massive volume, a fairly normal price range and resistance holds? Not even a break-put from the prior 3 days running top on this massive trading? For those that understand volume and trading what does this tell me about IAU today and tomorrow?

How would you interpret a day like today on IAU where volume was astronomical through the roof but price range rather normal and resistance (where price more or less failed the past three days) clearly held?

I can see a long up candle or a long down candle with massive volume being predictive of more up or down to come. But massive volume, a fairly normal price range and resistance holds?

Not even a break-put from the prior 3 days running top on this massive trading?

For those that understand volume and trading what does this tell me about IAU today and tomorrow?

Sentient Being:

Looks like the volume came in in the last half hour of trading:

Gallery View

Could be short covering, but most likely "front-running" a breakout (Pnf goes to BUY at 17.5).


stubaby

Thanks for your reply. I guess my confusion was that it seemed to be churning on extreme volume. Not really able to break up above resistance or break down. Couldn't figure out if they were front-running a break up or a break down. On some recent extreme volume such as that it was matched with long candles that gave clear direction as to which side was winning the game. And subsequent days or even weeks of price action showed the extreme volume long candle to be predictive. But a short move up that did not break resistance of the past three trading days doesn't seem to be such a clear signal to me.

Well I've got today off and the market should soon bring clarity I suppose. Should subsequent price action be upward bound I'll have to remember to look at intra-day time frames to get a more clear picture of what that high volume might mean on a tight day like yesterday.

Sentient Being:

Looks like the volume came in in the last half hour of trading:

Gallery View

Could be short covering, but most likely "front-running" a breakout (Pnf goes to BUY at 17.5).


stubaby

Edited by Sentient Being, 19 September 2012 - 12:24 AM.

Thanks for your reply. I guess my confusion was that it seemed to be churning on extreme volume. Not really able to break up above resistance or break down. Couldn't figure out if they were front-running a break up or a break down. On some recent extreme volume such as that it was matched with long candles that gave clear direction as to which side was winning the game. And subsequent days or even weeks of price action showed the extreme volume long candle to be predictive. But a short move up that did not break resistance of the past three trading days doesn't seem to be such a clear signal to me.

Well I've got today off and the market should soon bring clarity I suppose. Should subsequent price action be upward bound I'll have to remember to look at intra-day time frames to get a more clear picture of what that high volume might mean on a tight day like yesterday.

Sentient Being:

Looks like the volume came in in the last half hour of trading:

Gallery View

Could be short covering, but most likely "front-running" a breakout (Pnf goes to BUY at 17.5).


stubaby

GLD September 170 Calls have a massive O.I. of about 35K expiring this Friday.
GLD 170 translates to about 1753 in $Gold. This could be the reason that the Call writers bought yesterday's 1751 low in very early European time electronic trading. They went long to lock in their Call premium recieved in the past. They will not need this hedge after Friday's close and they might sell the futures contracts come next week, imho.

-tria

Thanks for your response. I've decided to drop in a stop on a portion of my position and if it gives way see if I can buy in lower.

GLD September 170 Calls have a massive O.I. of about 35K expiring this Friday.
GLD 170 translates to about 1753 in $Gold. This could be the reason that the Call writers bought yesterday's 1751 low in very early European time electronic trading. They went long to lock in their Call premium recieved in the past. They will not need this hedge after Friday's close and they might sell the futures contracts come next week, imho.

-tria

I wonder if we are about to test the 200 DEMA or the 50 DEMA.

Thanks for your response. I've decided to drop in a stop on a portion of my position and if it gives way see if I can buy in lower.

GLD September 170 Calls have a massive O.I. of about 35K expiring this Friday.
GLD 170 translates to about 1753 in $Gold. This could be the reason that the Call writers bought yesterday's 1751 low in very early European time electronic trading. They went long to lock in their Call premium recieved in the past. They will not need this hedge after Friday's close and they might sell the futures contracts come next week, imho.

-tria

I wonder if we are about to test the 200 DEMA or the 50 DEMA.

Thanks for your response. I've decided to drop in a stop on a portion of my position and if it gives way see if I can buy in lower.

GLD September 170 Calls have a massive O.I. of about 35K expiring this Friday.
GLD 170 translates to about 1753 in $Gold. This could be the reason that the Call writers bought yesterday's 1751 low in very early European time electronic trading. They went long to lock in their Call premium recieved in the past. They will not need this hedge after Friday's close and they might sell the futures contracts come next week, imho.

-tria

The 50 dema should be tested next month or so.

I posted this chart yesterday in dharma's "after consollidation ................"
It may help you to see a potential trajectory.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...amp;a=277942886

For short term I use these dema settings.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p11446791211

-tria

Thanks. Waves within waves within waves. Those e-wave charts look impressive. Looks like it's going nowhere today. Time to get back to caulking in the basement and other house chores.

Knocked out with two to three percent gain but that leaves me wondering where the next buy will be. I'd love to see it drop down to the 50 or 200 dema lines for support, that would make a nice pull-back to buy on. If it blows through that overhead resistance for real now that it's stopped me out...well that would suck. But I guess that's what I'd get for playing with fire.

Edited by Sentient Being, 26 September 2012 - 09:12 AM.