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AAPL:GLD Ratio

Started by beta , Dec 28 2012 07:09 PM

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#1 beta

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 07:09 PM

This ratio peaked at 4.2 in Sept 2012 and coincided with AAPL's all-time high (ATH).

Now it appears a trend reversal is underway, and the ratio may bottom just below 3.

I believe this will put AAPL around 425 and GLD around 142, sometime in mid-late January.

http://stockcharts.c...56739146511.png

Edited by beta, 28 December 2012 - 07:10 PM.

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#2 beta

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 07:14 PM

AAPL daily chart. I find it worrisome for the overall market's LT trend that AAPL appears to have completed a 5-wave up formation.

The entire wave down from 700 could be interpreted as the beginning of an impulse "1" wave.

If correct, then it will be dangerous to stay short past the technical gapfill around 478, as the next move could richochet back up to 600, before the primary downtrend resumes lower.

http://stockcharts.c...56739896098.png

Edited by beta, 28 December 2012 - 07:15 PM.

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#3 beta

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 07:19 PM

... as an alternative count, the sharp move back to 596 could have been the "2" wave, and we are seeing "3 of 3" unfold here. A series of unfilled gaps on the way up is a classic sign of an exhaustion top. In that case, I would expect ALL the gaps going back to high 300's to be filled on this next wave down. (And based on premiums for low 400 strikes, so do a number of other options traders).

Edited by beta, 28 December 2012 - 07:20 PM.

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#4 beta

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 07:24 PM

Years ago, Semi introduced the work of Richard Wyckoff to this forum. It is one of the most valuable--and simple concepts--in understanding price pattern recognition. Well-worth the read. :yes:

Edited by beta, 28 December 2012 - 07:25 PM.

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#5 beta

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 07:46 PM

AAPL weekly chart -- momentum precedes price:

http://stockcharts.c...56742005590.png

Edited by beta, 28 December 2012 - 07:48 PM.

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#6 beta

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 01:09 AM

$VIX Daily -- note that 26 is the .38 Fib retrace. A breakout > 26 will signal a serious washout for the broader markets, and you can expect SPX @ 1250 (10% move).

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p22841098536&a=201891590&r=1356761226119.png

Edited by beta, 29 December 2012 - 01:11 AM.

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#7 beta

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 01:35 AM

http://stockcharts.c...56762876796.png
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#8 beta

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 03:01 AM

AAPL daily chart. I find it worrisome for the overall market's LT trend that AAPL appears to have completed a 5-wave up formation.

The entire wave down from 700 could be interpreted as the beginning of an impulse "1" wave.

If correct, then it will be dangerous to stay short past the technical gapfill around 478, as the next move could richochet back up to 600, before the primary downtrend resumes lower.

http://stockcharts.c...56739896098.png



Jan 10 update:

Still within the DTL channel.

508-532 is the new range. Below 502 puts 460-480 into play.

Edited by beta, 11 January 2013 - 03:02 AM.

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#9 beta

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 11:39 PM

' Jan 14th update: Watch for the boomerang from 490's to 520 (at least 505). 460 is the Maginot line. Close below that, and it's a bearfest.
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#10 beta

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:23 PM

Jan 21 update:

Looking for lower retest 466-470 then back to 515-520

Will not break the Maginot line on the first try
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