2013 a Pi Target Year for a Low in Interest Rates - Armstrong

"2013 will be the Pi (π) target year for the low in interest rates from the 1981 high. The key in this giant financial crisis is still Europe. Marxism has failed. Russia & China faced that in 1989. The West has to learn this lessen as well".

http://armstrongecon...est-rates-2013/

"2013 will be the Pi (π) target year for the low in interest rates from the 1981 high. The key in this giant financial crisis is still Europe. Marxism has failed. Russia & China faced that in 1989. The West has to learn this lessen as well".

http://armstrongecon...est-rates-2013/

russ he has imo , a valid point . the gold bull didnt get momo until interest rates started to rise. the fed remained behind the curve. i expect the same thing this time which is the case now. i expect that to continue, as far as the fed remaining behind the curve. the thing is , is anyone else watching???!

dharma
thanks for posting that

Edited by dharma, 04 January 2013 - 03:47 PM.

"2013 will be the Pi (π) target year for the low in interest rates from the 1981 high. The key in this giant financial crisis is still Europe. Marxism has failed. Russia & China faced that in 1989. The West has to learn this lessen as well".

http://armstrongecon...est-rates-2013/

This was basically my point I was talking about on my pnf/Merriman thread about when the bond bubble burst..that's when the money will flow into gold...and we have been seeing signs of a bottom in rates/top in bonds.
Thanks for the post and despite some technical damage..slv/gdx closed it's morning gap.(signs of strength)..and gld did pretty good too today ...one might argue a double bottom test from Dec..but still too soon..but I'm thinking Merriman mightl have this correct...looking for a primary and long term low Jan 28-Feb 15th. We'll see if he's right

Have a nice weekend Russ.

Irene

Edited by tradermama, 04 January 2013 - 03:54 PM.

Dharma, Since the fed is going to stop buying back bonds (from the Chinese to stimulate US growth... duh as Mr. A. says, sending money back to China by buying bonds back as well as paying China interest on the bonds is going to help the USA?) which will stop creating liquidity this year that would argue interest rates will start to rise as the is less capital circulating. The other important thing about Armstrong's work is that his computer is predicting just about every market, stocks, bonds and commodities will have a major change of direction in 2013, in his view the only thing that could cause this is the intensification of the international debt crisis. Since I have what I think is a very strong signal for a high in July (close to Armstrong's next pi cycle turn) that means that next autumn is going to get ugly for the stock markets and governments again.

Yes a late Jan/early Feb low for gold could happen, I don't have a signal for that but a signal is starting to form on Gld's chart for a high in late March which is the date that the Amanita service sees coming for a high in Gold is memory serves here but Amanita does not see a low in late Jan. that I am aware of. As Mr. A (aka G.OD just joking about that DrSP, Armstrong has a huge ego and does not like to admit errors, does G.OD make mistakes???? ) says we are going to live history, the road ahead is going to be a very wild ride.

Have a good weekend too Irene.

"2013 will be the Pi (π) target year for the low in interest rates from the 1981 high. The key in this giant financial crisis is still Europe. Marxism has failed. Russia & China faced that in 1989. The West has to learn this lessen as well".

http://armstrongecon...est-rates-2013/

This was basically my point I was talking about on my pnf/Merriman thread about when the bond bubble burst..that's when the money will flow into gold...and we have been seeing signs of a bottom in rates/top in bonds.
Thanks for the post and despite some technical damage..slv/gdx closed it's morning gap.(signs of strength)..and gld did pretty good too today ...one might argue a double bottom test from Dec..but still too soon..but I'm thinking Merriman mightl have this correct...looking for a primary and long term low Jan 28-Feb 15th. We'll see if he's right

Have a nice weekend Russ.

Irene

Edited by Russ, 04 January 2013 - 04:29 PM.

Wasn't Armstrong predicting a large stock market crash for 3/4th qtr of last year? Or was that someone else.

IMO this is by far, THE most important inter-market correlation (bonds/gold) to watch going forward.

I find Armstrong's work thought-provoking, but his piece does not really explain the correlation between rising yields and implications for $gold.

T-yields climbed with $gold and peaked in early 1980's. Then, yields declined for 30 years, while $gold bottomed in early 2000.

During the 2008-2009 banking crisis, gold fell 30% while equities fell 60-80% and yields dropped dramatically (ie., safe-haven buying).

If yields have been held down artificially and now start to reverse, does this mean $gold's rate of change rises above nominal inflation? In other words, is Armstrong suggesting that $gold has been artificially suppressed, too?

Note that TBX, TNX and TBT are all up significantly (+10%) since last week. If this is a the start of a major inflection point in yields, perhaps it leaves to a behavioral change by mainstream fund managers who thus far, have been very reluctant to put their clients into PMs. That's the best case I can think of to fundamentally to explain why yields and gold would start to correlate again.

In other words, gold's institutional status changes from a "risk-on" asset to a "risk-off" haven.

Edited by beta, 04 January 2013 - 06:17 PM.

Beta, I am sure Armstrong has dealt with all your issues, you could wade through the dozens and dozens of articles on his site or write a message to him on his site with your questions.

The reason there is deflation in the system now is because of the housing crisis of 2008, the defaults on the mortages and mortgage backed securities and then capital infusion by the government and fed then deliberately lowering interest rates which of course have not been passed on to consumers by banks as the spread between what banks pay for money and what they loan it out at is at record highs.

The basic idea as to why gold will go to 5000 dollars is all about debt crisis, as the interest rates rise it will start to cause the bonds to crash, as capital rushes out of the bonds this is going to lead to the "zero bid day" for the bonds, add to this the complexities of Obama going after the productive citizens who will then hoard what they have, leading to a decline in the velocity of money, the unfunded liabilities for all the retiring baby boomers, the 50 Trillion in world-wide debt increasing by 342,000 dollars per second faster than economic growth world-wide, this shows that Don Wolanchu.k's (sic) aka the chief view of an economic boom of untold proportions is not happening, the dow will go up but not because things are so good, as Armstrong writes look to Greece to see what will happen to the west in general.

It will be a total loss of confidence in the system, bonds and currency crisis, that drives gold up so high. I don't think Armstrong believes that gold has been artificially kept down, this is just a correction and as I said it will take a wholesale loss of confidence in the system, a total collapse, to cause gold to move up thousands more. He thinks its possible gold will test the 1400 area before resuming its bull run into a peak in 2016 which he changed from 2017, I predicted 2016 before he did btw.

Looking at this chart: http://1.bp.blogspot...ldTrendline.JPG - you can see how 1400 could be tested perhaps by this summer as the spx peaks as I have projected on my blog link below.

This author also has a projection similar to mine for this summer... http://stockcharts.c...c/1169350/tenpp .... however he is predicting the us stock market to fall right out of bed which I know Armstrong mocks, as the stock market will be a hedge against loss of confidence in government, at least longer term, Armstrong's computer actually did an elliot wave projection for the final high for the dow in 2024 when the dow could be much higher than now.

It is pretty hard to keep up with Armstrong, the guy is a brainiac.

IMO this is by far, THE most important inter-market correlation (bonds/gold) to watch going forward.

I find Armstrong's work thought-provoking, but his piece does not really explain the correlation between rising yields and implications for $gold.

T-yields climbed with $gold and peaked in early 1980's. Then, yields declined for 30 years, while $gold bottomed in early 2000.

During the 2008-2009 banking crisis, gold fell 30% while equities fell 60-80% and yields dropped dramatically (ie., safe-haven buying).

If yields have been held down artificially and now start to reverse, does this mean $gold's rate of change rises above nominal inflation? In other words, is Armstrong suggesting that $gold has been artificially suppressed, too?

Note that TBX, TNX and TBT are all up significantly (+10%) since last week. If this is a the start of a major inflection point in yields, perhaps it leaves to a behavioral change by mainstream fund managers who thus far, have been very reluctant to put their clients into PMs. That's the best case I can think of to fundamentally to explain why yields and gold would start to correlate again.

In other words, gold's institutional status changes from a "risk-on" asset to a "risk-off" haven.

No not that I am aware of. 2013 is forecast to see major trend changes in most markets according to his computer model which he thinks can only be caused by one thing.... the resumtion of the debt crisis.

Wasn't Armstrong predicting a large stock market crash for 3/4th qtr of last year? Or was that someone else.