Mars-Ceres-Jupiter Gold Cycle

This discussion from FF should have taken place over here, you can find the poster of the astro chart and some very interesting cycle charts on this string... http://www.traders-t...?...143987&st=0

This is not my work, but I found it interesting...


And this chart is good for the long term view of Gold which shows how 1400 or even 1100 as Armstrong says is now support could happen ...

well, the only problem with that it doesn't chive with this

http://www.gold-spec...here-s-why.html

These 21-month cycles took gold up:

97.3%
89.4%
80.2%
84.2%
The low of this last correction came in at $1,524, so that is the starting point for the forward projection on the next 21-month peak.

If we go ahead and make the not-so-difficult assumption that gold is launching into another 21-month cycle to the upside — thank you Fed, thank you ECB — the target for this move is $2,750 to $3,000, with the next peak scheduled to arrive in June 2013, [early July at the latest]… (These projections…are subject to revision as real-time data comes in to confirm or refute. The key is to remain aware of the big road-map, but flexible if events don’t unfold as expected.)



The 21-22 month cycle hi that occurs around June to early July..Dharma has also pointed this out. I found this article a while ago and it is dated Feb 2012. According to my understanding you get an average of an 87% rise from the low of that cycle to the high...This is backtested from 2006. Of course if the Dec 2011 low breaks then it will not have been this year is the way I interpret that and I haven't backtested further back beyond 2006 to see if there was a failure.

Regarding your other post from Armstrong where the low support is that wouldn't change the long term bull, yes hard to believe it could get that low but one must always look up and down and not have tunnel vision. However, that said yesterday's action was very good for metals/miners.....after getting the news of the dissention from the other Feds on QE. Filling a gap down imo can be showing strength now (bullishness) especially after multi month correction and a negative trend change....just like in a strong uptrend filling a gap up shows some weakness of that trend..not necesarily bearish but weakness.

What I see now is the currency war starting. Good book to read John Rickard's Currency War. That will tell you where gold's place is in all this.

And again let's see how Jan 28-Feb 15 low comes to play. If gold can consolidate without breaking under 1600 by then, that could be the sign the correction is over. Last year most of us here thought so, even the person who wrote the article, but it didn't happen of course so we have to be open minded for anything. What I said I didn't like for gdx and gold was getting the negative pnf trend. So far, that's weighing it. But as I stated before gdx got that alert early Dec and typically this doesn't flip back like a pnf buy/sell signal that fast. Friday's action especially in miners were giving hints the bottom was in Dec...higher lows for gdx and we might get choppy till gold gets going. If we are really going to get moving forward miners need to lead. We can argue that could be happening now. Time will tell.

TM
p.s..so many calling for the top in gold..sentiment is getting extreme here to the bearish side..especially now about QE...gold imo has many uses..it's not just about QE...the next crisis could be the bond market

Edited by tradermama, 05 January 2013 - 08:25 AM.

seeing we're talking astrostuff..here's Merriman's column

The time band for several long-term cycle lows in precious metals is now in effect. In the meantime, this type of volatility and sharp price swing reversals noted in precious metals, currencies, and grain markets were also indicative of the fact that heliocentric Mercury was – is – in Sagittarius, December 28-January 8. This is one of the best indicators we have for identifying large price swings in financial markets, and it worked once again. It’s not over yet.

http://www.mmacycles...anuary-7,-2013/


TM

I don't understand Astro well enough to feel confident about it and there always seems to be disagreements depending on the Astrologer...

[*]Amanita thinks the low was Dec.21,high late March which would then suggest a low in the summer
[*]Merriman thinks a big low in late Jan to early Feb
[*]The astro chart I put up here, thinks the high was last Sept and the low will be this summer
[*]The 21 month stuff and Dharma is saying a big high this summer, why would gold go up when the stock market is quite happy with our agreement that spx will peak this summer?


The charts are looking bullish for now...

Another bullish interpretation on gold...

There is a trend forming (not totally confirmed yet but the symmetry looks right) on the Gld chart for a high around March 25 and this is what Amanita has predicted too, so that would then imply a low will form in July as my projected spx peak happens, then things start to get fugly going into a big stock market low in 2014 and I am also seeing NUGT forming a big low in 2014 too, this would imply that a general stock market panic will drag the gold stocks down with it.

There is a trend forming (not totally confirmed yet but the symmetry looks right) on the Gld chart for a high around March 25 and this is what Amanita has predicted too, so that would then imply a low will form in July as my projected spx peak happens, then things start to get fugly going into a big stock market low in 2014 and I am also seeing NUGT forming a big low in 2014 too, this would imply that a general stock market panic will drag the gold stocks down with it.

Hi Russ,
I don't have predictions of when a top or low comes in for gold/stock market. I was guessimating that a hi comes in Apr/May only because this is generally the peak bullish period for equities. Gold is going into a bullish period too and typically peaks around May/June exception was last year of course.

My take away is that I got some very bullish signals for equities last week and it started end of Dec too. Now we have the Rut hitting all time highs which is typically bullish for the markets going forward and positive pnf trend changes last week for spx/nasdaq..and not to leave out the banks of course. Yes, we are overbought but that money on the sideslines is itching to come into the market. But the real big money and imo the thing that will give real momentum to equities and yes gold is when the bond market starts cracking which we are seeing signs now.

Everyone is recognizing the bond bubble and many of us remember the Internet bubble..One might think well this will collapse equities and be bad for real esate (which has shown a break out last year on the weekly $DJUSHB..note how spx is following that index....by 2 yrs.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJU...7&listNum=5

That said, the thing is it might not collapse equities but inflate equities and yes gold and commodities and real estate...(btw, Merriman has real estate prices starting to go up around 2015 and said we have either bottomed or will be this year by June in real estate).

When the bond bubble bursts it means the Fed has lost control and investors will realize that Washington is broke..and that's where gold comes in....and QE....flight to safety coming into gold...because that sure ain't gonna be good for the $. Whenever this happens, money flow will go into cream of the crop equities. Now, I might be wrong here for the first half of the year and we still correct and again I have stated the negative pnf trends for gdx/gold so I will be alerted when improvements are there along with my own TA. For now, one has to be open minded this might not happen yet but it will. We must inflate or we die! (not litterally). That money flow will find its way into the economy too.


We all can argue whether this correction is significant of a top in gold or not. Time is going to tell and I feel it's all about watching bonds and the Fed loosing control...because really, if they applied true austerity, that would collapse our markets and economy and send us into a depression. Obama's presidency has not shown he is willing to do that and I doubt the next 4 yrs will be different imo. So just because we heard about some dissentiion on QE, a lot of that money has been parked in bonds and it's cracking now and I think that's why we didnt see a reaction to gold or equities when he came out with the last one in the fall. But it will eventually.

So this is why I can see equities and gold rise together and yea, it could be first half of the year. I might be wrong in my thinking. I have no time frame for when this is going to happen. I let pnf tell me if we are at extremes for equities and we have a ways to go based on that ..meaning overbought on the nyse bp. Yet, we are overbought short term based on TA.

Gold needs to hold 1600 or we will test Dec 2011 again.

Best to you

Irene

Gold needs to hold 1600 or we will test Dec 2011 again.

Irene

TM:

That's my "line-in-the-sand" too - Wave 1 of lesser degree in EW speak (5-21-2012 @ 1,599).


stubaby

http://www.youtube.c...p;v=fxQcwfys5WA