Gold smack down

http://blogs.wsj.com...eting-thursday/

Accountable to no one...these clowns are about to bring the house down

Confidence in all things paper is waning. The boys have to keep the illusion of fiat being worth more than the paper it's printed on. Physical gold and silver buying has gone thru the roof the last 2 days. More unintended consequences. 100s of trillions of fiascos need to be printed in the coming years...grab your ankles and all the hard assets you can...trade safe

What has happened in gold, was more than a 5 standard deviation event. Those events happen statistically once in every 6700 years. 7 standard deviations is usually the most statisticians even look at on charts. The move was actually around 8. What happened with gold won't ever ever ever happen again in any of our lifetimes, with gold, at least to the downside. In the early 1980's, gold dropped 50%, which was not even close to a 5 standard deviation event. It went down from 200 to 100. After that, it went up more than 8 fold. Many folks were shaken out in that 50% down draft, never able to have the faith to get back in and benefit on the upside. Few Americans have any exposure to gold, this go around, percentage wise, and so few except the biggest of Boyz, we're shaken out. If you think the upside to this ride, will be any less than an 8 fold move up, then you certainly shouldn't be in gold. You won't be able to gut out the ride or the volatility of it, and you'll likely be tempted way too early to sell, by numerous external influences, not just the violence of it. Worse, if you aren't holding ANY physical, you should be even more scared. Very scared. And you better have your own "Fort Knox" of security and secrecy to protect it. Ps. We live in an extremely low crime area. In the past week, a friend of mine got inside knowledge of 5 different folks cars being broken into. In each individual case, nobody knew the other party. The combined evidence suggests it was both sophisticated, and highly targeted, meaning these people had some very strong intelligence of the people's habits, and the vehicles cars being broken into, as the "takes" we're more than just CD's, GPs's, or iPhones. They weren't just using social media like Facebook, to roughly find out about their victims habits. It's not being published in any of the local papers, and usually we get police reports on everything. From what they can tell, these are not also those roaming "gangs" who move in and strike, and then immediately go to another area so as to limit gettting caught. I cannot say publicly what was taken. But just be careful and ever vigilant.

What has happened in gold, was more than a 5 standard deviation event. Those events happen statistically once in every 6700 years. 7 standard deviations is usually the most statisticians even look at on charts. The move was actually around 8.

What happened with gold won't ever ever ever happen again in any of our lifetimes, with gold, at least to the downside.

In the early 1980's, gold dropped 50%, which was not even close to a 5 standard deviation event. It went down from 200 to 100. After that, it went up more than 8 fold. Many folks were shaken out in that 50% down draft, never able to have the faith to get back in and benefit on the upside.

Few Americans have any exposure to gold, this go around, percentage wise, and so few except the biggest of Boyz, we're shaken out.

How can a 50% move from 200 to 100 in the 1980s be a 5 SD event? And 1600 - 1330 be a 8 SD event? Of course, you are absolutely wrong. You need to assess if a 50% downside move can happen again, and why not?

Record amounts of coins were sold in the last 2 weeks. Retail owning Gold like there is no tomorrow. The governMINT will be happy to sell to you, of course!

What has happened in gold, was more than a 5 standard deviation event. Those events happen statistically once in every 6700 years. 7 standard deviations is usually the most statisticians even look at on charts. The move was actually around 8.

What happened with gold won't ever ever ever happen again in any of our lifetimes, with gold, at least to the downside.

In the early 1980's, gold dropped 50%, which was not even close to a 5 standard deviation event. It went down from 200 to 100. After that, it went up more than 8 fold. Many folks were shaken out in that 50% down draft, never able to have the faith to get back in and benefit on the upside.

Few Americans have any exposure to gold, this go around, percentage wise, and so few except the biggest of Boyz, we're shaken out. If you think the upside to this ride, will be any less than an 8 fold move up, then you certainly shouldn't be in gold. You won't be able to gut out the ride or the volatility of it, and you'll likely be tempted way too early to sell, by numerous external influences, not just the violence of it.

Worse, if you aren't holding ANY physical, you should be even more scared. Very scared. And you better have your own "Fort Knox" of security and secrecy to protect it.

Ps. We live in an extremely low crime area. In the past week, a friend of mine got inside knowledge of 5 different folks cars being broken into. In each individual case, nobody knew the other party. The combined evidence suggests it was both sophisticated, and highly targeted, meaning these people had some very strong intelligence of the people's habits, and the vehicles cars being broken into, as the "takes" we're more than just CD's, GPs's, or iPhones. They weren't just using social media like Facebook, to roughly find out about their victims habits. It's not being published in any of the local papers, and usually we get police reports on everything. From what they can tell, these are not also those roaming "gangs" who move in and strike, and then immediately go to another area so as to limit gettting caught. I cannot say publicly what was taken. But just be careful and ever vigilant.

Nimble

You need to make a bunker and stock up with 5 years provisions.

Perhaps you can get a TV station to film it.

What has happened in gold, was more than a 5 standard deviation event. Those events happen statistically once in every 6700 years. 7 standard deviations is usually the most statisticians even look at on charts. The move was actually around 8.

What happened with gold won't ever ever ever happen again in any of our lifetimes, with gold, at least to the downside.

In the early 1980's, gold dropped 50%, which was not even close to a 5 standard deviation event. It went down from 200 to 100. After that, it went up more than 8 fold. Many folks were shaken out in that 50% down draft, never able to have the faith to get back in and benefit on the upside.

Few Americans have any exposure to gold, this go around, percentage wise, and so few except the biggest of Boyz, we're shaken out. If you think the upside to this ride, will be any less than an 8 fold move up, then you certainly shouldn't be in gold. You won't be able to gut out the ride or the volatility of it, and you'll likely be tempted way too early to sell, by numerous external influences, not just the violence of it.

Worse, if you aren't holding ANY physical, you should be even more scared. Very scared. And you better have your own "Fort Knox" of security and secrecy to protect it.

Ps. We live in an extremely low crime area. In the past week, a friend of mine got inside knowledge of 5 different folks cars being broken into. In each individual case, nobody knew the other party. The combined evidence suggests it was both sophisticated, and highly targeted, meaning these people had some very strong intelligence of the people's habits, and the vehicles cars being broken into, as the "takes" we're more than just CD's, GPs's, or iPhones. They weren't just using social media like Facebook, to roughly find out about their victims habits. It's not being published in any of the local papers, and usually we get police reports on everything. From what they can tell, these are not also those roaming "gangs" who move in and strike, and then immediately go to another area so as to limit gettting caught. I cannot say publicly what was taken. But just be careful and ever vigilant.

The previous decline you refer to actually took place in the mid-70s...the peak was in 1980. But the gist of what you were saying about the 8 fold increase from there is correct.

You need to make a bunker and stock up with 5 years provisions.

Perhaps you can get a TV station to film it.

As I noted on another thread, one should generally just sit back and collect the money. However, that doesn't mean you can't have some fun along the way and play some games. This one is called "Goldbuggery" and one must count how many rules are mentioned in any single post. The first to list get's a point each, but a second post that catches any rule not listed by the first, get 5 points for each rule missed by the first responder.

By way of Barry Ritholtz, here are the rules to look for in a post -

The Rules of Goldbuggery

1. Gold is a Currency: This is rule number 1. It is not a decorative or industrial metal, it is a permanent store of value, as dictated by Greeks in Lydia around 700 B.C. And, it shall be ever thus.

2. The price of gold cannot fall, it can only be manipulated lower: When gold’s price falls, it is an unnatural act. It can only occur as the result of an international cabal of Central Bankers and politicians. Its a conspiracy, and we know who the guilty parties are.

3. If the price of gold is rising, it is doing so despite enormous and desperate efforts by manipulators to prevent the rise: This is the corollary to the prior Rule of Gold manipulation. Gold runs up despite the overwhelming opposition to it.

4. The world MUST return to the Gold Standard one day: It is inevitable that we will return to a Gold Standard. We all know this to be true. When we compare the size of the money supply to past amounts when there was a Gold Standard, we can derive prices of Gold in the $7,000, $10,000 even $15,000. Hence, we know its cheap even at $2,000.

5. Central Bankers are printing money relentlessly, and this can only drive Gold prices higher: NOTE: You must ignore, for the moment, that Gold has not gone higher for the past 2 years as Central Banks around the world have ramped up QE. This only means that ultimately, Gold will go much much higher.

6. Gold works whether the economy is good or bad: When we have a red hot economy, Gold is your hedge against inflation. When we have a bad economy, Gold is a safe harbor against collapse. It is a one way trade that never fails!

7. Gold will survive after the world economy crumbles: Gold is the ultimate currency, as it has a value that will survive even after the whole world tumbles around you. Get yourself some gold coins and a Glock and you will be just fine when the whole world goes to [bleeeep]. We welcome the era envisioned in the movie Mad Max.

8. Never admit that Gold is essentially a sucker’s bet: Never discuss how in the last century, gold has run up only be to trounced in repeated massive sell offs (always blame rule #2 for this). Do not discuss how this has happened in 1915-20, 1941, 1947, 1951-66, 1974-76 1981, 1983-85, 1987-2000 and 2008.

9. Gold is a rejection of government, and their control of fiat money and finance: There are no printing presses that produce gold, it is finite, natural and ******* created. How much we scrape out of the ground each year is limited, and the only variable to the old equation. (Just ignore Man’s natural tendency to organize into to City-States over the past 12,000 years).

10. All Gold discussions must contain ominous macro forecasts: Your description of why Gold is going higher must consist of spurious correlations, unprovable predictions, and a guarded expectation of bad things in the future. Avoid empirical data at all costs.

11. Gold is always rallying in one currency or another: Sure, it may be down 30% in Dollars, the reserve currency it is priced in, but you can always find a currency falling faster than it does and claim you own it in that denomination. Last week, it was up in Japanese Yen. This week, it is up in Zimbabwe dollars.

12. China & India know the value of Gold; the Western world does not: The massive buying of gold by consumers in Chindia reflects the culture, intelligence and investing savvy of the people in these countries. The West doesn’t get it, and it is their loss.

Bonus rule: Never admit Gold might be falling because it trades on human emotions and psychology and has no intrinsic value whatsoever.

I see at least 6 rules in the posts on this thread so far. Since this is just an intro for you to warm up to the game, I'll let you see if you can find at least those 6; remember you get 5 point for any more that the 6 rules I have found! As we get better, we will switch to individual posts rather than an entire thread.

Edited by salsabob, 18 April 2013 - 02:02 PM.

http://blogs.wsj.com...eting-thursday/

Accountable to no one...these clowns are about to bring the house down

The beatings will continue until morale improves...