The next move in the 10 year yield is DOWN...

OK, just a little more food for thought after a weak of hysteria, while it's quiet...

Think about the circumstances that might bring this on...

We could see further mayhem ahead of us.

I don't know how bad it's going to get... But this chart above speaks VOLUMES Don't worry about interest rates... They are not going up ANYTIME Soon...

Afternoon Semi, Agreed but Im watching the gap fill at 120ish before your move. FWIW O

Lots of Wall St. experts have gone broke trying to short bonds. Look at Jimmy Rogers, how much money has that guy lost the last 5 years? The U.S. Bond is the pre-emminent paragon of safety for the world. All the guys who thought that gold was the premier safe haven just got "clipped" Cyprus-style. It could take years for the topping process to unfold, virtually everyone has been pre-conditioned to "BTFD" in bonds and run and hide in them anytime there was a stock market correction. Look at the fortunes made by traders who were long stocks and each time the SPY rolled below the 20-day EMA they piled into TLT or AGG to scalp a few points until stocks bottomed and u-turned.

Does the fact that tlt represents less than 1% of the overall treasury market and is largely a retail traded product affect your volume analysis in any way? Thanks in advance.

I don't know how bad it's going to get...

But this chart above speaks VOLUMES

Don't worry about interest rates...

They are not going up ANYTIME Soon...

Wouldn't bet too big on that,

Does the fact that tlt represents less than 1% of the overall treasury market and is largely a retail traded product affect your volume analysis in any way? Thanks in advance.

Consistent with the readout on the Bonds and 10 year Futures...

Wants to test the 2012 highs.

On the daily charts, your reference candle is 04/05/13

The sideways move is building up steam for a breakout.

They already tried to bust them down and it stalled on lighter volume...

Then turned back up on stronger volume.

and that's all these markets do, is try to bust them down or bust them up.

Down Failed.

By the way, what happened to your "generational top" in bonds?

I think it was you that said the bonds were "done" back in March 2012.




http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Does the fact that tlt represents less than 1% of the overall treasury market and is largely a retail traded product affect your volume analysis in any way? Thanks in advance.

Consistent with the readout on the Bonds and 10 year Futures...

Wants to test the 2012 highs.

On the daily charts, your reference candle is 04/05/13

The sideways move is building up steam for a breakout.

They already tried to bust them down and it stalled on lighter volume...

Then turned back up on stronger volume.

and that's all these markets do, is try to bust them down or bust them up.

Down Failed.

By the way, what happened to your "generational top" in bonds?

I think it was you that said the bonds were "done" back in March 2012.




http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

I do believe bonds have hit their generational highs going forward but I remain a slave to my indicators and am not smart enough to outsmart them if they tell me I am wrong I will listen.

I am concerned the volume you are analyzing is not really 'them' the 'them' be trading the futures but that is just my view.

Have a wonderful day and thank you for your kind response.

I see, so TLT was good enough a year ago for you to draw your conclusion... But since you were wrong you are blaming the chart now. Somehow it worked for me, though. one of my best trades in the past year was TLT calls. Bought around 110 and sold at 122. Thanks for all your valuable input. One more thing... Don't fight the Fed... And don't listen to anything they SAY, watch what they do... $85B a month and that's not changing....

Edited by SemiBizz, 21 April 2013 - 11:33 AM.

I see, so TLT was good enough a year ago for you to draw your conclusion...

But since you were wrong you are blaming the chart now.

Somehow it worked for me, though.

one of my best trades in the past year was TLT calls.

Bought around 110 and sold at 122.

Thanks for all your valuable input.



One more thing...

Don't fight the Fed...

And don't listen to anything they SAY, watch what they do...

$85B a month and that's not changing....

Wow, you seem so sure. Good for you. I am never sure, must be nice.