Bearish?

There's a lot that turned down, to say nothing of the seasonal cycle, but take a look at this:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p81649263589&a=68178819&r=1366663269583.png

Does that look terribly Bearish to you?

I'm very nervous about both sides of the market right now.

I don't feel any need to make a big commitment to anything.

Mark

Well, the market had no chance to react to the end of (this one) the "National Security Threat", so I would normally think a "Sign of relief" rally is in the cards...

This is still an emotional and reactive market... I can show you how in fact... Let's just take a look at the PRICE BEHAVIOR of the Nasdaq...

Notice the LARGE TRADING RANGES AND GAPS...

So, this is not news to me, I have been looking at this for years... but basically, if you are nervous, your senses are intact.

Here's what I wrote back on 03/02/2013, we closed at 3171 that day:

Runaway Parabola, What can happen after new highs in DJIA, SPX

Bullish or Bearish is like religion, not really to be discussed in public, as it only leads to fruitless argument. In my opinion "bull or bear" is the domain of long term investors, which I am not.

I thought this was a simple point, over 3200 there is a dearth of support and resistance data as we enter an unstable or "toxic" range of untested price structures. In order to understand this, you would have to know more about my theories regarding "Price Behavior" and that would take a very long time to explain to you in detail. There are many different ways to slice and dice data and charts and my theories have evolved over time and experience. I don't know ANYONE who reads a chart the same way I do, so if you don't understand, I can accept that.

The 2nd point is simple I thought as well, that once you cross 3200 to the upside as shown by the double bottom, you will have 3200 as the support structure for a possible parabola similar to the one we saw in 1999-2000.

So, I keep a very open mind here, we have some MONGO trading ranges going on here... this market is WELL SUITED to DAY TRADING and a treacherous hold either way as these ranges expand and we see this gapping behavior... And - you will notice that once we crossed 3200 those ranges started expanding and then over this past 2 or 3 weeks we added volatility. This thing could run right to 3500 now based on a couple of weeks of a strong rally... it's baked in the cake now. Conversely if it turns down from here we can be under 3000 and back to 2887 in a heart beat.

So if you are nervous, no need to worry, you are very NORMAL.



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

FWIW [attachment=20670:sc.png] mss

I'm neutral at this juncture and I see Friday's rally was mainly an effect of OpEx. I expected a 5% correction from SPX 1597 and it's not there yet. I see more whipsaw actions till we get to the target SPX 1520-1525 area.

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 April 2013 - 03:35 PM.

It must be a new bull ! No doubt in my mind.

Just look at the cover of Barron's ! It says Dow 16,000. I mean how could you not believe Barron's ? They did a BIG MONEY POLL !!! Isn't BIG Money, the smartest money on the planet ? If not, how did they get BIG MONEY to begin with ? And they would never lie in a poll. No way Ho seh.

http://www.zerohedge...t-top-indicator

(this NEVER GETS OLD ! )

What Mark ? Divergence parties make you nervous ? There are a lot of these parties. Formal invitations pending. Here are just a few of the spectacular events: 1) Dow transports vs Dow 2) Gold vs S&P500 3) Commodities versus stocks 4) Dr Copper vs Dow 5) Euro stocks and China vs US stocks 6) PM stocks versus S&P500 7) Apple versus Nasdaq/DOW/S&P 8) CAT vs DOW 9) AUDJPY vs S&P500 10)Small stocks vs Large stocks But maybe all those are bottoming ? Correlation isn't causation, of course, but where there is smoke, often there is fire.

U tell 'em, MSS!

It must be a new bull ! No doubt in my mind.

Just look at the cover of Barron's ! It says Dow 16,000. I mean how could you not believe Barron's ? They did a BIG MONEY POLL !!! Isn't BIG Money, the smartest money on the planet ? If not, how did they get BIG MONEY to begin with ? And they would never lie in a poll. No way Ho seh.

http://www.zerohedge...t-top-indicator

(this NEVER GETS OLD ! )

If the market has not topped yet, I have two major price targets for a generational top on DJIA based on pretty long-term geometry: one is 15,000 area; the other is 15,870 area, which is too close to the Barron's 16,000 to be feasible. I'll go with the 15,000 +/- 50 points.

Kimston

What Mark ? Divergence parties make you nervous ?

There are a lot of these parties. Formal invitations pending.

Here are just a few of the spectacular events:

1) Dow transports vs Dow
2) Gold vs S&P500
3) Commodities versus stocks
4) Dr Copper vs Dow
5) Euro stocks and China vs US stocks
6) PM stocks versus S&P500
7) Apple versus Nasdaq/DOW/S&P
8) CAT vs DOW
9) AUDJPY vs S&P500
10)Small stocks vs Large stocks

But maybe all those are bottoming ?


Correlation isn't causation, of course, but where there is smoke, often there is fire.

Add in $NYA50R and $NYA150R and $BPNYA for the divergence party

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery....?s=$NYA50r

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery....s=$NYA150R

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=$BPNYA

here's the link to the chart...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA...r=1366663269583

Current, I think.

It's the cumulative A/D line and should be a line. I don't know what happened to the other.

Mark