Best Anecdotal Evidence of a Top

http://www.hussmanfu...c/wmc130422.htm

Excerpts:

“The stock market isn't the only thing that has set records this spring. Barron's semiannual Big Money poll of professional investors also is setting a record -- for bullishness, that is. In our latest survey, 74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks -- an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years.”

“Dow 16000!” – Barron’s Magazine Big Money Poll 4/20/2013".

"Rule o’ Thumb: When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it’s probably about time to cash in the chips." (see chart in link and Barrons front cover page).

"With a record 74% of Wall Street strategists now bullish, who is left to embrace further speculation, and how deep will the required losses be to induce the conservative 26% to absorb the overleveraged exposure of the exuberant 74% when forced liquidation becomes necessary?"

"Soon enough, I expect that investors will be relieved of the need to desperately reach for yields that are hardly distinguishable from zero. This is not the time to swing at pitches so low that they brush the grass."

Another surety of a Major Top would be Maria Bartoromo's shrieking voice when or if the SPX crosses 1600 and the Dow crosses 15,000, with her cheerleading, "dont fight the Fed" and "where else can investors put their money" hogwash (garbage fed to hogs....when she should be admonishing, "bulls make money, bears, sometimes make money, pigs never do"....LOL)

Barrons is gaming those who think too bearishly. We will see new highs in all US indices before we get a 20% correction.

I am looking for 1467-1457 in ES before we rise into 1570 - then the leg down into 1420-1400 before I allocate any capital for a long

The SPX earnings call for a range around 1420-1650 at 16-18x ttm earnings. The market is near the upper end of these numbers, my system still calls for a correction until 5/13, but the downside targets are mediocre, so it is a sideways consolidation for now. Slowly there should be a purge of the excess speculation before rallying into the summer one last time. VIX needs to spike over 20% before the character of the market changes, even then I would expect another higher high or a double top before a bigger correction...