A picture that perfectly describes short thesis for semiconductors.

Saw this one somewhere, seems very relevant.

at least 2 more items are missing here... GPS, and gaming devices. Possibly even more.

Edited by ogm, 22 April 2013 - 05:28 AM.

Saw this one somewhere, seems very relevant.

at least 2 more items are missing here... GPS, and gaming devices. Possibly even more.

back then only few people use to own but now every douchebag out there has a smartphone..

Edited by akola, 22 April 2013 - 06:30 AM.

back then only few people use to own but now every douchebag out there has a smartphone..

Saturated market. Smartphone sales declined for the first time this year. Now its only an upgrade cycle.

Here is BRCM weekly chart. Earnings on April 23rd this week.

Reminds me of the copper weekly chart before it broke down. I'm short.





Here is copper for comparison:

where's the towel in those two pictures where can I invest in mr towlie

Phone Sales saturated ?? I can see this in the US, but worldwide many people don't have cell phones, and many that have them, have not upgraded to smartphones... The market is maturing... So what about upgrades.... Many US consumers purchased the Iphone 4S, followed recently by the Galaxy S3 in the smartphone market... Many people upgraded with these popular phones so many are locked into contracts.. So yes we are at a lull... Many will keep their phones for 3 or 4 years before upgrading, but moving forward I expect smartphone growth to continue a double digit growth over the next couple years.... Barry

Phone Sales saturated ?? I can see this in the US, but worldwide many people don't have cell phones, and many that have them, have not upgraded to smartphones... The market is maturing... So what about upgrades.... Many US consumers purchased the Iphone 4S, followed recently by the Galaxy S3 in the smartphone market... Many people upgraded with these popular phones so many are locked into contracts.. So yes we are at a lull... Many will keep their phones for 3 or 4 years before upgrading, but moving forward I expect smartphone growth to continue a double digit growth over the next couple years....

Barry

There are 6 billion cell phone subscribers in the world with 1.5 billion smartphones in use. And that is with the 7 bil global population.

Subtract children, poor, etc, and there isn't much room for growth. Believe it or not, the market is saturated.

Here is the number of cell phone subscribers by country. Some of the countires have more subscribers then population, or pretty close to it
http://en.wikipedia....e_phones_in_use

... As for upgrades.. I have Galaxy S1, that I bought years ago, when it just came out, and to be honest I didn't have the need to upgrade it ever since. There is just no reason to upgrade. And my wife still loves her Blackberry Bold with the keyboard, and she doesn't want anything else.

Edited by ogm, 22 April 2013 - 09:17 AM.

Quite a change in the World... In 1976 there were 2.7B people who had never made a phone call...

Phone Sales saturated ?? I can see this in the US, but worldwide many people don't have cell phones, and many that have them, have not upgraded to smartphones... The market is maturing... So what about upgrades.... Many US consumers purchased the Iphone 4S, followed recently by the Galaxy S3 in the smartphone market... Many people upgraded with these popular phones so many are locked into contracts.. So yes we are at a lull... Many will keep their phones for 3 or 4 years before upgrading, but moving forward I expect smartphone growth to continue a double digit growth over the next couple years....

Barry

There are 6 billion cell phone subscribers in the world with 1.5 billion smartphones in use. And that is with the 7 bil global population.

Subtract children, poor, etc, and there isn't much room for growth. Believe it or not, the market is saturated.

Here is the number of cell phone subscribers by country. Some of the countires have more subscribers then population, or pretty close to it
http://en.wikipedia....e_phones_in_use

... As for upgrades.. I have Galaxy S1, that I bought years ago, when it just came out, and to be honest I didn't have the need to upgrade it ever since. There is just no reason to upgrade. And my wife still loves her Blackberry Bold with the keyboard, and she doesn't want anything else.

People will continue buying/upgrading their cell phones as long as the cell phones progress technologically. It does not matter if the market is saturated. People will continue needing to replace their cell phone for one reason or another. Buttons break, phones are dropped, new features are available...

Look at the car industry. It is a saturated market, but people are still buying cars.
Now go look at the portable navigation device industry. That is a saturated market which will be in trouble for a long time.

Edited by orange, 22 April 2013 - 10:40 AM.

Phone Sales saturated ?? I can see this in the US, but worldwide many people don't have cell phones, and many that have them, have not upgraded to smartphones... The market is maturing... So what about upgrades.... Many US consumers purchased the Iphone 4S, followed recently by the Galaxy S3 in the smartphone market... Many people upgraded with these popular phones so many are locked into contracts.. So yes we are at a lull... Many will keep their phones for 3 or 4 years before upgrading, but moving forward I expect smartphone growth to continue a double digit growth over the next couple years....

Barry

There are 6 billion cell phone subscribers in the world with 1.5 billion smartphones in use. And that is with the 7 bil global population.

Subtract children, poor, etc, and there isn't much room for growth. Believe it or not, the market is saturated.

Here is the number of cell phone subscribers by country. Some of the countires have more subscribers then population, or pretty close to it
http://en.wikipedia....e_phones_in_use

... As for upgrades.. I have Galaxy S1, that I bought years ago, when it just came out, and to be honest I didn't have the need to upgrade it ever since. There is just no reason to upgrade. And my wife still loves her Blackberry Bold with the keyboard, and she doesn't want anything else.

My son lost his Blackberry Bold, so we got him a Galaxy S3... I totally agree that many people will hold onto there phones for 3 - 4 years... Roughly 41% of cell phone subscribers are smart phones, and the number of people with cell phones is closer to 4.5 billion ( not 6 ) like some survey says... 10% of cell phone users have more than one subscription...

Barry