QUOTE (vulture @ Oct 2 2005, 10:48 PM)
At the risk of offending a few, anyone care to comment on this weekend's Fearless Forecast sentiment poll? Since I see it frequently cited for reasons to go long, would like to find out if/when the last time it was this lopsided in terms of bullish sentiment on here.
I guess it hasnt been discussed earlier as it seems this is the giant white elephant in the room right about now.
Actually, we have an archive of all the poll responses, linked right at the top of the FF message board page. You can work from a chart to identify tops and bottoms and then look at the sentiment yourself.
In my experience, the opinion poll is NOT to be faded unless it's totally over the top. Even then, I'd want other sentiment to support.
The Actual Position poll is a bit different. It needs to be contextualized. Most of the traders here know that they want to be on the right side of the trend. Thus, when the trend turns up, expect most of the traders to be at least partially long. It's not Bearish until it gets really overdone and no one is fully short.
My read on the poll is that it's generally constructive for the market.
I discuss this poll in the ISA Navigator every morning.