The VRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 6/19/2006 "Tools for the High Performance Trader" Copyright ©2006, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark LeibovitLeibovit FilesMonday, June 19, 2006Opening CommentsEconomic Data/Events June 19-23:---------------------------------------------MONDAY, June 19:Treasury auctions 3 & 6-month bills---------------------------------------------TUESDAY, June 20:Housing Starts & Building Permits for May (8:30 am ET)Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 am ET)---------------------------------------------WEDNESDAY, June 21:EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 am ET)---------------------------------------------THURSDAY, June 22:Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am ET)Leading Indicators Index for May (10 am ET)Treasury announces 2&5-year note auctions (11 am ET)Weekly Money Supply (4:30 pm ET)---------------------------------------------FRIDAY, June 23:Durable Goods Orders for May (8:30 am ET)------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Mr. Market sent a tsunami not only through Wall Street but into the commodity and futures pits these past couple of weeks, teaching all of us that nothing grows to the sky forever and that investor mood can change very quickly. These are kind words, because we know the markets are manipulated and stocks (and commodities) have to be held in strong hands before upward moves can begin or continue momentum. When they are held by weak hands, a tsunami is always possible. We are now caught in a Never-Never Land. With the Dow Industrials having corrected precisely to our forecast 10,600-10,700 zone and then subsequently rallying (much sooner than expected) to the 11,000-11,100 range, the market could literally go in eitther direction from here. As a result, we're watching a waiting from the sidelines and reluctant to put on any new positions until our confidence grows. Cycles suggest the market could demonstrate an overall upward bias into July to be then followed by another wave lower into the fall. However, we will try and remain flexible if technical and sentiment conditions change. Cycles don't change though they often invert. In this regard, hope lies eternal for the bulls should the infamous four-year cycle low have come earlier (and lower in terms of price destruction) than expected. Remember, too, that 'summer trading' is underway and with less players around, the markets may continue to act eratic.Though we saw Gold going lower, we were surprised by the depth of the correction once it past the $620-$640 mark, then opening up the discussion regarding the $570 level. If that prediction turned out to be conservative after watching the sell-off stabilize around $550.00. Stocks, however, we pinpointed with deadly accuracy, calling for the top in mid-May five months previous and announcing both herein and on national television our recommendation to go short at that time. We also precisely pointed a downside target for the Dow Industrials, namely 10,600 - another bullseye!Gold's (and metals in general) decline has created a new rush of bearish sentiment which might have tied in perfectly with the bottom. Though we're disappointed by the extent of the decline and suffered a setback in many long positions, we are now more convinced that ever that this decline was either carefully orchesterated or a result of gravity at work as precursors for the next leg higher. So, we don't have to get into a lengthy dicussion of market manipulation and conspiracy including the Plunge Protection Team and the Federal Reserve's involvement in manipulating the Gold market, let us say it was just a healthy and needed event. As tumultuous the decline may have been (and exciting for the bears) the next thrust higher might even surprise the bulls. The chances of seeing new highs in Gold are as likely by year-end as by 12 to 18 months from now in our view, so we're maintaining and adding to long positions. We are particularly fond of the Uranium market and related plays as Uranium surged to a new multi-decade high of $45.00 lb. this past week. Think nuclear. Think Uranium.
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WATCHLIST
LONGS
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SHORTS
Sorry, no Short Watchlist to Report Suggestions? Comments? on the newsletter service. We would like to hear from each and everyone of our subscribers. Our email is mark@vrsurvey.com.
DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. VRTrader.com staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Copyright © 2006 VRTrader.com.
