The VRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 7/17/2006
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LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
Monday, July 17, 2006
Leibovit Files
Opening Comments
Economic Data/Events July 17-21:
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MONDAY, July 17:
NY Empire State Index for July (8:30 am ET)
Industrial Production & Capacity Util. for June (9:15 am ET)
Treasury auctions 3 & 6-month bills
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TUESDAY, July 18:
Producer Price Index (PPI) for June (8:30 am ET)
Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 am ET)
Treasury reports Net Foreign Purchases for May (9 am ET)
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WEDNESDAY, July 19:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June (8:30 am ET)
Housing Starts & Building Permits for June (8:30 am ET)
Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before Senate (10 am ET)
EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 am ET)
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THURSDAY, July 20:
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am ET)
Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before House (10 am ET)
Leading Indicators Index for June (10 am ET)
Philadelphia Fed Index for July (12 pm ET)
FOMC Minutes released (2 pm ET)
Weekly Money Supply (4:30 pm ET)
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FRIDAY, July 21:
No Major Economic Releases Scheduled
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Stocks are quite oversold and in our work we're intersecting a cyclical 'change point'today. With the 'trend' still clearly lower, it's tough to gauge how much of a bounce wecan see, though the S&P 500 Cash feels like it 1248, Dow Industrials 10,900 and theNasdaq Composite 2060. Options expiration this coming Friday opens up the possibility of a'squeeze' on out of the money call options. Though we're not currently long, we did coverour index shorts on Friday and are awaiting some further confirmation..
With the news environment quite volatile, still unfulfilled down signal projections,e.g., Dow Industrials under 10,000, and seasonality calling for weakness in the weeksahead, we're certainly not encouraging you (just yet) to run out and start buying stocks.On a trading basis, however, there is shot here, especially if we start to see someinternal improvement and the appearance of some upside volume.
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Many oil producing nations are getting tired of exchanging what is perceived to be aprecious diminishing commodity, oil for a not-so-precious multiplying commodity, the U.S.dollar which could partially explain the strength we've in Gold this year.
Gold is clearly a position that one needs to hold on a bigger picture basis. We've madethat position clear herein for the past several years. The volatility of this marketdoesn't surprise us, but we have to admit were taken back by the intensity of the recentsell-off from $730 to $550 in such a short period of time. Technically, Gold could easilyequal or exceed the $730 peak at any moment, but here we're hoping to once again see aretracement. The upside gap at $597 might appear light years away, but is clearly a riskshould another correction unfold. On a trading basis we're long, but with some signs we'reloosing upside momentum, we may choose to step aside. Stay tuned.
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There is not need to go into detail regarding the current news events, but we'restill going to throw-in our two cents.
It is quite evident at this point that the U.S. and Israel have their share of enemiesand those enemies are quite tenacious. What is particularly discouraging is the fact thatSyria and Iran are indirectly (or directly?) behind the current war and are essentiallycalling our bluff. Are we chicken afraid to spank the child now only to need a biggerstick when he grows up? Unspoken is the behind the scenes skulduggery by China and Russiawho, in effect, are supporting our enemies. Russia by supplying technology to Iran andChina by backing North Korea. One way to stop China is to either threaten to re-militarizeJapan or simply go ahead and do it. In our opinion, a strong militaristic Japan wouldscare the dickens out of China and North Korea and put an end to the nonsense in that partof the world. In the Middle East, it is clear Syria and Iran need to be punished for theirinvolvement in the current conflict, but how do we do it? They know George Bush's handsare tied who left to his own devices would have liked to invade Syria and possibly Iran.Much of the problem is due to seditionists in our own country. It's time to clean out therat nests before they start breeding in our part of the world with whatever meansnecessary, preferably air power over risking the lifes of our boys on the ground.
DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. Thenewsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to beconstrued as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are notto be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid theinvestor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible atthis or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sellsecurities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before tradingin any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliablebut is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. VRTrader.com staff makes everyeffort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specificdelivery times due to factors beyond our control.
Suggestions? Comments? on the newsletter service. We would like to hear from each andeveryone of our subscribers. Our email is mark@vrsurvey.com.
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