Calm Before the Storm
Tomorrow, we get to find out what Ben has in store for us. Will he let off the breaks and let us coast a while? Will he tap them one last time? Will he just keep on them until our economy screeches to a halt. My read is that he's already over-tightened, but I don't recall the last time a Fed chairman asked my opinion. In any case, whatever happens, it's likely to cause the market to do some flips. The Fed Fund futures suggest that we get a pause this go 'round and that's likely the best bet.
DOW: The Dow isn't giving us much to work with.
S&P500: The S&P was weak, but not terribly so. The futures wen't out pretty strongly too.
NDX: I'm not so happy about the Nasdaq, however. This choppy action implies an upward correction and when done, we may be getting ready to take out the lows. We're bullish, however, if we see a sharp rally from here.
RUT: The Russell holds support, but that's about it. I don't like the pattern.
HUI: The miners were fairly strong today and support holds.
BKX: The banks were down, but they held pretty well anyway. Close to the upper trend line is good.
PPH: The Pharms are consolidating and I think that they're gathering energy for an attempt at the highs.
RTH: The Retailers look weak to me, but the're above the break up.
TTH: The Telecoms are teasing us. Losing momentum but holding above support.
OCN: Our Ocwen Financial was up today and we'll take it.
HL: Hecla was off a tad but not much. Holding pretty well.
AVY: Avery Dennison was down, but it held above support.
FLIR: Flir Systems was down nicely for us today. Looking for a gap fill.
KMP: Kinder Morgan was weak but it seems to only have tested the break up. We need to take out today's high.
RIG: We're short Transocean and despite the sexy sector, this one looks fat and vulnerable. Big time.
TLB: We've got a funny feeling about the Talbots. I'm thinking, "let's wait" and see if we don't get another spike up.
ORCL: Oracle is still looking pretty good here. If the Nasdaq every wakes up.
KR: Krogers is still acting well. The Chartist still likes it above. I'd love to buy it on a gap fill.
CPWR: Compuware looks interesting here. A nice consolidation. If it breaks up, we want it.
Summary:
Tomorrow could be hairy but we're hedged and I'm hopeful that whatever happens our TA and our asset allocation will serve us well. In general, we're looking for a generally constructive environment for the next couple of days.
Be Well, and Trade Smarter Than the Average Bear!
-The ChartSmarts Team
Current Positions:
Long 50% OCN at 13.02, stop at 13.59
Long 50% HL at 5.21, stop at 5.58
Long 50% AVY at 59.02, stop at 57.24
Short 50% FLIR at 23.68, stop at 24.41
Long 50% KMP at 46.21, stop at 44.94
Short 50% RIG at 69.87, stop at 72.64
Watch List :
ORCL: Buy 50% on a print of 15.07, stop at 14.46
KR: Buy 50% print of 23.21, stop at 22.31
CPWR: Buy 50% CPWR on a print of 7.02, stop at 6.73
Changes in Current Positions:
Move the stop down on FLIR to 24.41
We are now 50% short RIG at 69.87
