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cycles

Started by airedale88 , Jul 27 2007 11:35 AM

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18 replies to this topic

#1 airedale88

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Posted 27 July 2007 - 11:35 AM

went flat SPX holding at the lower envelope. 61.10 handles on the es's, plus the 19.90 on the er's i closed out to roll into the es's (darn, should have stayed in er's). 81 handles total but could have been done better.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p23242174874&r=1842.png

chart below of XLF was first posted in january. at the time i put in the little colored blocks indicating future cycle lows that were due in march and late july. updated the price of xlf with the little red line. worked out pretty good.

this was a commonality cycle model applicable to broad indices such as SPX, NYSE, etc.

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airedale

Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".

Ring-Ouzel, England

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#2 ogm

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Posted 27 July 2007 - 11:41 AM

All right, I'm convienced .. another 25% in for a total of 75% If we crash, I'll hold you responsible

Great work though, I need to read up on that Hurst model one day. Never got around to it. :redbull:

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#3 CAzzaro

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Posted 27 July 2007 - 11:52 AM

Excellent trading. Thanks for your posts.

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#4 Russ

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Posted 27 July 2007 - 11:57 AM

Airedale, Do you think this is the bottom? I notice that Eric Hadik is looking for a short rally into the first part of August and then more selling. He thinks july was a major top.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong

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#5 airedale88

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Posted 27 July 2007 - 12:06 PM

russ, pretty sure i just posted earlier today what i thought about this cycle bottom. hadik's wrong.

airedale

Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".

Ring-Ouzel, England

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#6 arbman

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Posted 27 July 2007 - 12:13 PM

Airedale, given this picture, do you expect a fast ramp up from here or a trading range for the summer? I think the market will consolidate since the breath is still very poor unlike last March... What do you think?

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#7 Rogerdodger

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Posted 27 July 2007 - 12:14 PM

Obey the Airedale.

"Nature's Failure to Function in a 'Predictable Way'... 500 years ago?"
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.

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#8 slatedrake

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Posted 27 July 2007 - 12:17 PM

Nice trade Aire - thanks for your updates.

Before you start trading get your brain around risk control. Know how much leverage you're using and know when to go to cash if you're wrong.

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#9 airedale88

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Posted 27 July 2007 - 12:17 PM

i expect some choppy action as things cool off. a good base of fear/ disbelief will be set up before we start trending again.

airedale

Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".

Ring-Ouzel, England