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$SPX / $BKX:$SPX 650 day offset chart

Started by spielchekr , Oct 04 2007 07:11 PM

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#1 spielchekr

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Posted 04 October 2007 - 07:11 PM

Really not a bad long-term correlation, and with a nice current divergence. In order to go beyond ten years, I had to select the date (7/1/94 is the beginning of data calculation for the ratio). Therefore, I've striken the dates rendered by Stockcharts at the bottom of the chart, and "eyeballed" a cut-and-paste job of the current date scale. Hopefully this makes it less confusing to understand.

Speaking of divergences, look at 1998. It looks interesting to me how the '98 correlation actually gets mirror-imaged somewhere around here and beyond this point. Just another narrow observation for amusement.

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Edited by spielchekr, 04 October 2007 - 07:12 PM.

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#2 Russ

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Posted 04 October 2007 - 07:37 PM

What is your prediction, market going down?

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong

http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

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#3 spielchekr

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Posted 04 October 2007 - 08:31 PM

What is your prediction, market going down?

It can continue to diverge in the short-run, and in fact can diverge again and again in other short runs, without warning and at any point. That's my foremost prediction. And a chart like this will never pin-point a top or bottom.

But can I predict that the chart will continue to experience short-term divergences yet continue following the long-term path as it's done thus far? If I didn't, well that might be something akin like fighting a long-term trend, indeed.

I think the chart says that market has been pricing in the next 2 year's worth of crummy bank returns relative to it's lending activity in the market for the past two years. You can lead a horse to liquidity...

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#4 spielchekr

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Posted 05 October 2007 - 06:04 AM

This chart implies that a better bounce might be had next year from world stocks rather than US stocks. Still the same end game though.
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#5 spielchekr

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Posted 27 April 2008 - 09:47 PM

Edited by spielchekr, 27 April 2008 - 09:56 PM.

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#6 spielchekr

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Posted 27 April 2008 - 09:58 PM

I think I'll bury this here for now, and dig it up again next April.

One more dip here is a reasonable possibility, then it's a one-year cruise, with all the trimmings, to the Gates of Nirvana. And we will not pass those gates. You have not yet seen the true bear market, and when it arrives you will be sure that the bear market already happened. But the banks (especially the Fed) have already defined the next 650 days of our destiny.
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Edited by spielchekr, 27 April 2008 - 10:04 PM.

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#7 StillLearnin

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Posted 27 April 2008 - 10:16 PM

Man Spiel that was really tough to follow until I figured out all the posts were dated last October. Now it is very impressive....so the method suggests...more or less sideways to slightly up to fall, then a large jump up before market flat out does a slow crash? I am having a hard time decerning what the blue line is...actually its still tought to figure out what I am looking at.....help SL

http://www.collectiv.../system73738932

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#8 spielchekr

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 05:27 PM

SL: see if I've cleared anything up with this.

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#9 StillLearnin

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 06:34 PM

Got it! Real interesting..... How do you do the offset on stockcharts?

Edited by StillLearnin, 28 April 2008 - 06:36 PM.

http://www.collectiv.../system73738932

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#10 spielchekr

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Posted 28 April 2008 - 06:55 PM

Got it! Real interesting.....

How do you do the offset on stockcharts?

You can also use negative numbers after the comma to shift in the other direction. BTW, a moving average value of "1" is the same as closing price.
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