Check out www.traders-talk.com for early updates of the sentimentpolls every day.
Our T-4 Turn Indicator went out at 82 which is probably a Buy signal, but we'llsee. Last Thursday's 82 looks like a Sell. Typically we want to see readings above 80 orhigher before we look for worthwhile turns. This indicator doesn't catch every top andbottom, but it is a great "Heads up!" indicator.
Options Sentiment
Daily P/C ratio: 0.79. Sell.
10-day P/C ratio: 0.85. Sell.
Equity P/C ratio: 0.55. Sell.
OEX PC ratio: 1.20. Weak Buy.
OEX 10-day PC ratio: 1.61. Negative.
OEX $-weighted* P/C ratio: 0.82. Neutral.
QQQQ $-weighted* P/C ratio: 0.39. Sell.
ISEE Sentiment Index: 134. Neutral.
Relative VIX: Neutral.
For a discussion and additional charts of the Relative VIX, click here:
The options data are looking pretty bearish, but it's options expiration, so we can'tbet much on that. We still have a clear Sell from the 10-day CBOE P/C.
The ISEE Sentiment Index indicator is contrarian; traditionally, over 200 is toooptimistic, under 100 is too pessimistic.
*$-weighted P/C data courtesy of Fari Hamzei of
General Public Polls
TSPTalk, a larger polling site devoted to savings plan management flashed yet anotherSell, this time with just 48% Bulls and 37% Bears. That's just a follow on Sell. A bitmore Bearishness and we'll get a Buy. I wouldn't interpret this as overly Bearish for themarket--just not yet Bullish.
AAII reported 42% Bulls and 36% Bears vs. 55% Bulls and 26% Bears. This is a hugeshift and puts us nearly back in BUY territory. This shows you just how willing to turnBearish folks are. This is Bullish.
LowRisk.com reported 34% Bullish vs. 41% last week, and 49% Bearish vs. 38%last week. That's leaning a little bit Bearish, given that last week wasn't all that bad.
Investors Intelligence reported that Bulls rose to 62.00% vs. 60.20%, and Bearsfell to 19.3% vs. 21.50%. That is another solid Bullish shift that puts us even higher upin sell territory. That's not great for the market. Just remember they tend to be early,often months early, though this reading might be good for a pullback immediately. MarkHulbert's HSNSI decreased to 46.7%, which is interesting in a market thathadn't yet seen much selling. On the Nasdaq, Bullish "exposure" has decreased to55.4% from over 60%. Both measures are high, but also show a willingness to quickly backoff the Bullishness. Advisors are still pretty Beared up on Bonds.
Lazlo Birinyi reported that his Blogger Poll has 38% Bulls and 35% Bears. That's abig improvement, given that there was very little selling last week. This shows howtenacious Bearishness still is, at least in this sector.
Last week, TheStreet.com reported another big jump in Bulls to 68% and a drop inBears to 16%. This was actually showing even more Bullishness earlier. As high as 74%Bulls.
Rydex Sentiment
Our Rydex data shows that non-Dynamic Bull funds had $1MM (net) inflows on a modestdecline. The non-Dynamic Bear funds saw $3MM of (net) inflows. It looks like the amateursare mixed up but leaning short. Dynamic Funds saw net Bull fund sells of $58MM, and Bearfund net buys of $18MM. The Dynamic players appear to have gotten out with their skins andare only nibbling short. Probably wise on Options Expiration.
Conclusion
Last time, I said that I suspected that we'd revisit my 1525-1530 SPX zone. We did andwe appear to be again. We might even push through this time, but the quick shift in theAAII data, and the huge Bearish lean in the message board polls makes me think thatthere's a Bullish surprise out there for us. Breadth has not been bad. There's no realdistribution that I can see, as yet. Volume says look higher today, despite the gap down.
The Mechanical Senticator model will sit flat. The Subjective Senticator Model will aswell unless we get more participation by morning--we will advise if we do. Remember, thesemodels must trade in the direction of the Senticator or not at all.
We do not have a ST Sentiment Sell signal. I'm looking long again. Yesterday, we naileddown a decent profit on the long side. Since we've been publishing our ST SentimentSignals, we've had 64 trades and 47 winners. We're much more active nowand I'm offering more set ups when I'm not going to be around. If you'd like atrial, feel free to contact us.
Ideal ETF Portfolio (trackingportfolio):
50% long DIA at 127.54.
We're long but we sold half from 133.41 at 140.67. We're looking to buy back
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.All information included in this missive is derived from sources we believe to bereliable, but no guarantee can be made to that effect. None of the forgoing should beconstrued as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The publisher may havea long or short position in the funds or securities discussed at any given time. We aren'tyour advisor, unless you have a signed contract with us. Please review any trade that youdo with your trusted advisor FIRST.
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For more on the ISA and the various sentiment poll data, click here:
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