Guardian Checklist for Tuesday 10/23/07
Published Monday 10/22/07
by Mark S. Young , President of Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
Investment Management & Research
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Intermediate-term Outlook (weeks):
Seasonal Cycle: Positive.
Coppock Breadth Indicator: Sell. The CBI was up 0.2 to 235.2, 0.8 beneath the exponential.
Weekly MACD: Sell.
Bull/Bear Market Indicator: Bull.
Conclusion: We are still in a Cyclical Bull Market. The Seasonal Cycle is now technically positive, but I consider it iffy. The Weekly MACD just flashed a Sell.
Short/Intermediate-Term
NYSE Cumulative A/D Volume: Sell.
ITBM: Negative.
Summation: Negative.
KTT*: Buy. Unconfirmed.
CCI Daily: Positive.
10-day ARMS: Buy.
MACD Daily: Negative.
21-day MA: Sell.
Conclusion: Shorts are still favored, but we're now quite oversold.
Short-term
Stochastic Turn Spotter: Buy.
VIX 30': Positive.
MACD 60': Negative.
Moving Averages: Negative. Watch the 1525-1531 area.
Conclusion: longs are favored, but moreso above 1525. Watch the VIX.
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Last time, I said that if you have comfortable exposure levels, then you can afford to give this market a bit of room. That's working OK so far. Now, we still have to deal with the fact that the cumulative NYSE A/D volume turned down, but I note that the Naz never did and is now positive.
Breadth today, however wasn't stellar. That's a problem for us.
We had a ton of Crash talk yesterday and that's part of what's under this market, but some other measures showed a lot of dip buyers. Frankly, I'm a little bit concerned here. I want to be Bullish, but I'm seeing things that make me worry. I suspect that we have another leg down. Maybe more. We'll just have to be careful.
KTT traders are flat looking to go long.
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Not everyone likes a short-term trading model, and would like something that hangs onto bigger moves and reflects a less frenetic trading pace. If you want to know how I would trade based upon the big picture and the sentiment, the following tracking portfolio is it.
Ideal ETF Portfolio (tracking portfolio):
50% long DIA at 127.54.
We're long but we sold half from 133.41 at 140.67. I'm looking long soon, I think.
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Mutual Fund Models Position Summary
1) STAMP 100% Money Market.
2) Rydex Naz Trader 100% Money Market.
0% Velocity
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1)*Real Money* Seasonal Trading Asset Management Program (All weightings are approximate)
100% Money Market.
I'm going to be looking to go long, though we may consider a quick short, too.
We sold the 25% Rydex Inverse Dynamic Russell position just prior to the low. The entry was at 36.43 and the exit was at 42.52. That's a big profit.
This is a very conservative approach (~1/3 the risk of the market), using both long and short funds as well as the occasional favored sector/stock idea. All performance is net of fees, commissions, and interest. Your results may vary, especially if we trade for our accounts intra-day, and standard disclaimers apply. We use discretion. For further information, call us at 1-800-769-6980.
2) Rydex Naz Trading Model
Weekly Trend: Positive.
Rydex Asset Trigger: Neutral.
MACD Risk Reducer: Neutral.
CCI Entry Improver: Positive.
NDX Stochastic: Buy.
100% Money Market.
I'm thinking long, but we probably ought to give it a day. We'll advise.
QQQQ Trading model: Flat. Sell or buy if the Naz trader does.
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Trading is not only risky, but trading different vehicles also entails unique risks. Traders can lose a significant amount of money trading options, and more in futures. Mutual funds have certain trading limitations that must be understood before you undertake any market timing approach. Traders should discuss the forgoing issues with their broker before taking any trades. We aren't your advisor unless you have a signed contract with us. You are responsible for your own trading decisions and results. Take your time and do your homework. Past performance is no indication of future returns.
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See our Web site for more www.EquityGuardianGroup.com
Mark Young
President
Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
859-393-3335
