Guardian Checklist for Friday 11/02/07
Published Thursday 11/01/07
by Mark S. Young , President of Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
Investment Management & Research
Intermediate-term Outlook (weeks):
Seasonal Cycle: Positive.
Coppock Breadth Indicator: Neutral. The CBI was down 0.8 to 235.5, 0.2 beneath theexponential.
Weekly MACD: Neutral.
Bull/Bear Market Indicator: Bull.
Conclusion: We are still in a Cyclical Bull Market. The Seasonal Cycle isnow technically positive. The Weekly MACD is now neutral and will flash a Sell if we don'trally smartly tomorrow.
Short/Intermediate-Term
NYSE Cumulative A/D Volume: Sell. Unconfirmed.
ITBM: Negative.
Summation: Sell.
KTT*: Sell.
CCI Daily: Neutral.
10-day ARMS: Neutral.
MACD Daily: Negative.
21-day MA: Sell.
Conclusion: Shorts are favored.
Short-term
Stochastic Turn Spotter: Sell. Near a Buy.
VIX 30': Negative.
MACD 60': Negative.
Moving Averages: Negative. Watch the 1530-1535 area.
Conclusion: Shorts are favored, but a bounce to 1528 isn't unreasonable.
Last time, I said that more and more was lining up on theBullish side of the ledger, which was actually setting up a sell off. Alas, I figured itwould come in a couple days. I was looking long today.
Surprise.
So, lots of damage done, but some sentiment suggesting a bounce. I'm not at all sure how Ifeel about this market. These big moves seem to spend themselves quickly. The Fed is alsopumping cash like there's no tomorrow.
I have a funny feeling that we may have some more downside, but that it's all about an ABCcorrection and once we test the low, we take off.
KTT traders are flat.
Not everyone likes a short-term trading model, and would like something that hangs ontobigger moves and reflects a less frenetic trading pace. If you want to know how I wouldtrade based upon the big picture and the sentiment, the following tracking portfolio isit.
Ideal ETF Portfolio (tracking portfolio):
50% long DIA at 127.54.
50% long at 136.71
We're long but we sold half from 133.41 at 140.67. Bought the 1/2 DIA back at 136.71.
Mutual Fund Models Position Summary
1) STAMP 100% Money Market.
2) Rydex Naz Trader 100% Money Market.
0%Velocity
1)*Real Money* Seasonal Trading Asset Management Program (All weightings areapproximate)
75% Money Market.
25% 2X Dow long fund
I went 50% long at the late cut-off last week.
This is a very conservative approach (~1/3 the risk of the market), using both long andshort funds as well as the occasional favored sector/stock idea. All performance is net offees, commissions, and interest. Your results may vary, especially if we trade for ouraccounts intra-day, and standard disclaimers apply. We use discretion. For furtherinformation, call us at 1-800-769-6980.
2) Rydex Naz Trading Model
Weekly Trend: Positive.
Rydex Asset Trigger: Neutral.
MACD Risk Reducer: Positive.
CCI Entry Improver: Buy.
NDX Stochastic: Sell.
100% Money Market.
I was thinking short, but I may be late to that party.
QQQQ Trading model: Flat. Buy if the Naz trader does.
Trading is not only risky, but tradingdifferent vehicles also entails unique risks. Traders can lose a significant amount ofmoney trading options, and more in futures. Mutual funds have certain trading limitationsthat must be understood before you undertake any market timing approach. Traders shoulddiscuss the forgoing issues with their broker before taking any trades. We aren't youradvisor unless you have a signed contract with us. You are responsible for your owntrading decisions and results. Take your time and do your homework. Past performance is noindication of future returns.
See our Web site for more
www.EquityGuardianGroup.com
Mark Young
President
Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
859-393-3335
