Guardian Checklist for Thursday 11/08/07
Published Wednesday 11/07/07
by Mark S. Young , President of Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
Investment Management & Research
Intermediate-term Outlook (weeks):
Seasonal Cycle: Positive.
Coppock Breadth Indicator: Negative. The CBI was down 0.9 to 234.3, 1.1 beneath theexponential.
Weekly MACD: Negative.
Bull/Bear Market Indicator: Bull.
Conclusion: We are still in a Cyclical Bull Market. The Seasonal Cycle is now technicallypositive. The Weekly MACD is now negative.
Short/Intermediate-Term
NYSE Cumulative A/D Volume: Negative.
ITBM: Negative.
Summation: Negative.
KTT*: Neutral.
CCI Daily: Buy.
10-day ARMS: Neutral.
MACD Daily: Negative.
21-day MA: Negative.
Conclusion: Shorts are favored, but we're way overdone.
Short-term
Stochastic Turn Spotter: Neutral.
VIX 30': Negative.
MACD 60': Negative.
Moving Averages: Negative. Watch the 1497-1499 area.
Conclusion: Shorts are favored, but watch for a bounce at any time.
Last time, I said that we got a nice rally, but I was no moreconfident. I was fairly Bullish still, but I still had to allow for one more shot down.Because the seasonal cycle was Bullish, I thought that we really ought to be nibbling longon weakness. That latter may come back to bite us, but here we are. We took out the lows.
We have a lower target or two, and we may hit them. In fact, I'm a bit disturbed by thelack of outright Bearishness in the options data. I'd have expected to see moreBearishness. Now, we ARE seeing Bearishness, but not what I'd expect after this nasty of amove. On the other hand, the new highs are surprisingly robust. The ARMS, however, isrelatively low. I'm not sure if that's a sign of complacency or a sign of accumulation onWWW.
Play it very much by ear here. I suspect that we see a surprise move here. The Fed maymake a quick move to pump liquidity.
KTT traders are flat.
Not everyone likes a short-term trading model, and would likesomething that hangs onto bigger moves and reflects a less frenetic trading pace. If youwant to know how I would trade based upon the big picture and the sentiment, the followingtracking portfolio is it.
Ideal ETF Portfolio (tracking portfolio):
50% long DIA at 127.54.
50% long at 136.71
We're long but we sold half from 133.41 at 140.67. Bought the 1/2 DIA back at 136.71.I'm not so happy about that, but I'm going to give it a bit of room.
Mutual Fund Models Position Summary
1) STAMP
2) Rydex Naz Trader
1)*Real Money* Seasonal Trading Asset Management Program (All weightings areapproximate)
75% Money Market.
25% 2X Dow long fund
We'll be looking long for some more this week, I think.
This is a very conservative approach (~1/3 the risk of the market), using both long andshort funds as well as the occasional favored sector/stock idea. All performance is net offees, commissions, and interest. Your results may vary, especially if we trade for ouraccounts intra-day, and standard disclaimers apply. We use discretion. For furtherinformation, call us at 1-800-769-6980.
2) Rydex Naz Trading Model
Weekly Trend: Positive.
Rydex Asset Trigger: Neutral-to-negative.
MACD Risk Reducer: Negative.
CCI Entry Improver: Buy.
NDX Stochastic: Neutral.
100% Money Market.
Now, I'm looking long.
QQQQ Trading model: Flat. Buy or sell if the Naz trader does.
Trading is not only risky, but trading differentvehicles also entails unique risks. Traders can lose a significant amount of money tradingoptions, and more in futures. Mutual funds have certain trading limitations that must beunderstood before you undertake any market timing approach. Traders should discuss theforgoing issues with their broker before taking any trades. We aren't your advisor unlessyou have a signed contract with us. You are responsible for your own trading decisions andresults. Take your time and do your homework. Past performance is no indication of futurereturns.
See our Web site for more: www.EquityGuardianGroup.com
Mark Young
President
Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
859-393-3335
