Board Bullish

A relief rally is in the cards, yes, I agree (about 50 SPX points wouldn't surprise me over the course of a few days). Can we go lower first, yes, but maybe not. There is strong support around 1380/90 SPX and 4Q 46.50 area for this week. Cycle wise we are in day 29 of a 27 day cycle low +/- 3 days. I'm still looking for a more important low around Jan 22, the 22 week cycle low from Aug 16. The 4Q may outperform the SPX over the next two weeks and I see the SPX testing 1364 (the March '07 low) first before any meaningful rally time and point wise. The more important cycle I'm looking at is the 22 month cycle low last seen in June '06, Aug '04 and Oct '02, Dec '00 and that is due in early/mid April. I expect the 1219 SPX area to be tested at that time, the June '06 low. The last time we hit a 22 week cycle low in Aug '07, the market rallied powerfully for about 8 weeks. That would put us into mid March for another top marker. Gold is also primed for a top in March with a low around mid Feb. Current cycle is down for 27 more trading days there.